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Refinance mortgage applications collapsed to lowest since year 2000.

This just keeps getting worse: Applications for mortgages to purchase a home dropped 7% for the week, and were down 21% from a year ago, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported today. An indicator of future home sales: Potential homebuyers try to get pre-approved for a mortgage, lock in a mortgage rate, and then start house-hunting.

Mortgage rates have soared this year, and home prices have soared for years to ridiculous levels, causing layers and layers of potential buyers to abandon the market, amid “worsening affordability challenges,” as the MBA called it. And these applications to purchase a home hit the lowest point since the depth of the lockdown in April 2020 (data via Investing.com):

The MBA’s Purchase Mortgage Applications Index has now dropped below the lows of late 2018. By November 2018, the Fed had been hiking rates for years (slowly), and its QT was in full swing, and mortgage rates had edged above 5%, which was enough to begin shaking up the housing market. Home sales volume slowed, prices began to come down in some markets, and stocks were selling off. But with inflation below the Fed’s target, and with Trump, who’d taken ownership of the Dow, constantly throwing darts at Powell, the Fed signaled in December 2018 that it would cave, and instantly mortgage rates began to fall, and volume and prices took off again.

Today, raging inflation is the #1 economic issue, and the Fed is chasing after it, with backing from the White House, and so this issue in the housing market is just going to have to play out.

Holy-Moly Mortgage Rates.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate with conforming balances and 20% down rose to 5.40% this week, according to the MBA today, having been in this 5.4% range, plus or minus a little, since the end of April, the highest since 2009.

I call them holy-moly mortgage rates because that’s the reaction you get when you apply this rate to figure a mortgage payment for a home at current prices and then accidentally look at the resulting mortgage payment (data via Investing.com):

“Bad time to buy a home.”

Turns out, sky-high home prices to be financed with holy-moly mortgage rates, plus uncertainty about the economy, dropping stock prices, and inflation eating everyone’s lunch make a toxic mix for homebuyers.

The percentage of people who said that now is a “bad time to buy” a home jumped to 79%, another record-worst in the data going back to 2010, according to Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey for May. Sentiment has been deteriorating since February 2021:

“Consumers’ expectations that their personal financial situations will worsen over the next year reached an all-time high in the May survey, and they expressed greater concern about job security,” according to Fannie Mae’s report.

“These results suggest to us that increased mortgage rates, high home prices, and inflation will likely continue to squeeze would-be homebuyers – as well as those potential sellers with lower, locked-in mortgage rates – out of the market, supporting our forecast that home sales will slow meaningfully through the rest of this year and into next,” said Fannie Mae.

Sagging stock prices keep getting blamed.

The stock market is on the front pages every day. Only a small percentage of Americans own any significant amount of equities, but that doesn’t matter. Stock market declines, with many high-flying stocks plunging 70% or 80% or even 90% since February 2021, have rattled a lot of nerves. Which is in part why Fannie Mae pointed out, “consumers’ expectations that their personal financial situations will worsen over the next year reached an all-time high.”

The MBA also had previously pointed at the financial markets as one of the reasons for the plunge in purchase mortgage applications.

In the tech and social media sector, the big declines in stock prices have now triggered the first hiring freezes and a few layoffs. And this too – just the idea of nirvana being somehow over – is shaking up some folks.

Sharp increases in stock portfolios, stock options from employers, or cryptos empowered potential homebuyers and enabled many to borrow against their portfolios to come up with down payments. This option has either vanished or is looking very shaky for many.

Refi applications collapsed to lowest since year 2000.

Applications for mortgages to refinance an existing mortgage dropped another 6% for the week, and have collapsed by 75% from a year ago, to the lowest level since the year 2000, according to the MBA’s Refinance Mortgage Applications Index. The MBA obtains this data from a weekly survey of mortgage bankers.

With these holy-moly mortgage rates, just about the only reason to refinance is to extract cash from the home via a cash-out refi (data via Investing.com):

Cash-Out Refi mortgage applications.

According to the AEI Housing Center, which tracks mortgage applications by the number of rate locks, no-cash-out refi applications have collapsed by 92% from a year ago. But cash-out refi applications are primarily driven by the desire to extract cash from a home, with mortgage rates being a secondary issue – and so they continue but a slower pace.

Cash out refi applications in week through May 30 (black line) plunged by 42% from the same week in 2021 and have stabilized roughly level with 2019:

A cash-out refi provides a big lump sum for the homeowner to spend on all kinds of things, from cars to home improvement projects. They are also used to pay off high-cost debts, such as credit cards so that these credit cards can then be used for more purchases. The plunge in cash-out refi reduces the availability of these lump-sums, and therefore reduces the stimulus to the economy they provide.

No-cash-out refi mortgages at lower mortgage rates also boost consumer spending, as the lower rates reduce payments that then leave some extra every month to spend on other stuff. But the spike in mortgage rates, and the subsequent 92% collapse of no-cash-out refi mortgage applications ends this program.

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Bond markets are ponzi schemes where investors will be left holding the bag once the the lights come one, according to Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital.

Investors instead should invest in digital assets in order to avoid "bubbles" that are created by the Federal Reserve's economic policies. 

Bond investors "are going to get absolutely destroyed when the Fed stops manipulating the bond market," Morehead said Tuesday, according to Bloomberg. 

Instead of focusing all of their regulatory energy on cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, governments around the world should look at systemic issues that are causing economic volatility.

“Governments should stop obsessing about bitcoin and look inward. The biggest Ponzi scheme in history is the U.S. government and mortgage bond market – 33 trillion-with-a-T dollars – all being driven by one non-economic actor with a dominant position who is trading based on material, non-public information," Morehead said.

While he raises concerns about government intervention in cryptocurrencies, Morehead sees bitcoin as being too big to manipulate. 

“The bitcoin market is way too big to be manipulated,” he said. “Bitcoin trades on hundreds of exchanges in dozens of countries. Bitcoin’s daily volume is 1,000x as much as GameStop, which trades on just one market in just one country.”

This past year has gone by in the blink of an eye. Before we know it, 2022 will be here. And, you know what a new year means? A fresh start and a few new trends for businesses. 

So, what kind of trends should you keep on your radar for the coming year? Let me lay it all out for you. 

Small business trends for 2022

New year, new business trends, am I right? It seems like every year there is something that’s all the rage in business. Some trends stay, while others come and go. And in the case of 2022, many trends are likely staying (ahem, remote work). But, experts anticipate a few new ones, too. 

Although I’m no psychic and can’t predict exactly which trends will become popular in the upcoming year, I do have some hunches, thanks to my 30-plus years of entrepreneurial experience. So, let’s take a look at eight small business trends for 2022 I think will we’ll see in the year ahead.

1. E-commerce businesses will thrive

Many trends sprouted in the last year or so due to businesses needing to adapt to survive the pandemic. One trend I’ve seen that will continue to be strong in 2022 and beyond? E-commerce. 

E-commerce businesses that sell products and services online are becoming huge. Why? Customers can easily and safely shop from home. And, business owners don’t have to worry about having a brick-and-mortar location. Not to mention, business owners can steer clear of some overhead costs; they can do all of their business online. It’s truly a win-win.

If you’re thinking about starting a business but are leery about opening a storefront, starting an e-commerce business may be the perfect new trend to follow. 

2. Remote work will continue to be popular

It’s no secret that remote work took the world by storm in the last year and a half. Nearly half of employees worked from home in 2021 due to the pandemic. And if you experimented with remote work like I did at my company, you probably found that it has quite a few perks for both your business and employees (or as I like to call them, “coworkers”). 

Chances are, remote work isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. But, that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. In fact, I see it as a blessing. Remote work has taught employers like you and me a lot, like how offering work-from-home options can:

Boost productivity

Attract and retain top talent (anywhere!)

Improve work-life balance

Because remote work was such a big hit the last two years, I see it sticking around next year (and maybe even for good). 

3. Communication applications will only grow in importance

A big part of making your business work is prioritizing clear communication with your team. Otherwise, poor communication with your team could lead to poor collaboration and even workplace drama (eek!). To strengthen communication in this remote era, communication tools and applications have become a must-have trend. And if I had to guess, it will continue being a big part of the year to come.

Communication tools and applications can help your team, remote or not. Applications and tools, like video conferencing software and messaging platforms, have been booming since Covid struck in 2020. And like remote work, they will probably be around for quite some time. 

If you haven’t already done so already and want to keep up with the latest trends, try out some new communication applications at your business. See what works and doesn’t work, and what helps improve your team’s ability to communicate and work together. 

4. Cashless payments will become standard for businesses

At one point in time, cash was king. But, move over cash, because there’s a new trend in town taking over payments. That’s right—I’m talking about cashless payments.

Cashless payments can include a variety of payment methods:

Credit and debit cards

Mobile or digital wallets (think touch-free technology)

Payment apps

As technology advances, more cashless payment options will become available, which means your business may have no choice but to keep up to satisfy customers. In addition to accepting standard payments, consider also adding a cashless payment option or two to your list. That way, you can keep up with the times while also giving your loyal customers a few options when it comes time to pay. 

5. More and more events will be virtual events held online

Continuing with the Covid theme, you know what else I predict to be a hot small business trend for 2022? Virtual events. I’m talking about conferences, meetings, and trade shows. Why? Because Covid is still hanging around. Not to mention, hosting virtual events can help expand your reach and allow for more attendees. 

So, don’t be surprised if your favorite event, like an accounting conference, decides to host things virtually in 2022. Or, at least somewhat virtually with in-person and online options. Heck, you may even decide to host a virtual event to help keep your business, customers, and employees safe. 

Don’t let the trend of virtual events scare you off. Trust me, they can be fun, helpful, and educational, regardless of if you’re attending an event in person or watching it on your laptop from the comfort of your own home. 

6. Personalized artificial intelligence will become more commonplace

Artificial intelligence (AI) has quickly gained traction in the business world to help streamline certain tasks, and it’s going to become even more sought-after in the years ahead.

Depending on the type of artificial intelligence, this technology can help you increase sales, get to know your customers better, and even prevent fraud—and who doesn’t want all of that? Here are just a few examples of AI in business:

Chatbots on websites and social media

Smart assistants (e.g., Siri)

Facial recognition

Personalized recommendations

Fraud-detection systems

Personalized ads and marketing

AI has advanced over the years, and it’s going to advance even more in 2022 and beyond. So, do yourself a favor and look into AI for your business. You never know how this trend can help your business expand and succeed. 

7. Video marketing will continue to grow in popularity

As a business owner, you likely know that marketing techniques are ever changing. One day a marketing strategy is in, and the next day it’s out. One marketing trend that’s taken over (and that will continue to next year) is video marketing.

So for my old-school marketing friends, what in the world does video marketing include? It can be anything from videos on your website to using social media platforms (e.g., TikTok) to promote your products or services. 

Video marketing is packed with perks and opportunities for business owners. Don’t believe me? Approximately 84% of people say a brand’s video convinced them to buy a product or service. And, 54% of consumers want to see more video content from a brand or business they support.

So if you want to take your marketing up to the next level in 2022, consider incorporating videos into your marketing strategy. Test out using different platforms, like Facebook and TikTok, to market your company using videos (and don’t be afraid to have fun with it!). 

8. Gig workers will make up large part of the workforce

Freelancers, or gig workers, make up a huge chunk of workers. Last year, there were 59 million people doing freelance work in the United States. And, that number is only going to continue to grow in 2022, especially with our new normal from Covid.

Now you might be wondering, What in the world do gig workers have to do with my business? Depending on your needs, it could be a match made in heaven. You can hire a freelance worker to do a one-time job and get expertise in a certain area. Not to mention, you can cut down on costs associated with hiring a full-time employee. 

Just like children are our future, so are gig workers. If you’re looking for high-quality work for a lower administrative cost, consider looking into freelance options for your business this coming year. And who knows, maybe you’ll find a worker you like so much that you’ll want to hire them for good (can you say win-win?). 

Investors, bankers, and entrepreneurs have been discussing the chances of a coming recession for months. Now the world’s premier international credit institution is joining the chorus that a recession is likely, and warns that something even worse might be on the horizon.

Global economic growth is expected to slow down before the end of the year, and most countries should begin preparing for a recession, according to the World Bank’s latest global economic forecast released on Tuesday.

“For many countries, recession will be hard to avoid,” wrote World Bank president David Malpass. 

Growth takes a hit

The rate of global growth is expected to slow from 5.7% in 2021 to 2.9% this year, according to the report. The World Bank, which acts as an international lending body for developing economies, had forecasted 4.1% growth for 2022 last January.

The global economy had already been impaired by the aftereffects of the COVID-19 pandemic, which left international supply chains in tatters and significantly hampered income growth and poverty reduction efforts in developing countries, according to the report.

This led the World Bank to predict a slower yet robust next few years of global growth starting from 2022, but after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the institution was forced to significantly downgrade its expectations to account for soaring food and fuel prices and disrupted international trade networks.

“Just over two years after COVID-19 caused the deepest global recession since World War II, the world economy is again in danger,” Malpass wrote.

In the U.S., Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a rapid rise in prices have pushed the Federal Reserve into a strategy of aggressive interest rate hikes to tame inflation, but this is making investors increasingly skittish. If interest rates go too high, as more and more economists believe might be inevitable, the economy could risk backsliding into a contraction and a recession.

The word “recession” might evoke scary images of the 2008 market crash, but most economists think that if there is a recession, a downturn of that magnitude is unlikely, with most assuring people that the outcome will likely be a mild recession, as is normal at the end of business cycles.

But the World Bank is warning that even a mild recession could leave lasting scars on the global economy, as the combination of today’s economic forces could lead to “stagflation,” a mixture of low growth and high prices that is toxic to economies in developing countries.

The return of stagflation?

Malpass mentioned the threat of stagflation multiple times in the World Bank report, noting similarities in monetary policy environments between now and the last time stagflation hit.

“Several years of above-average inflation and below-average growth are now likely, with potentially destabilizing consequences for low- and middle-income economies. It’s a phenomenon—stagflation—that the world has not seen since the 1970s,” he wrote.

Stagflation occurs when economic growth goes through a significant slowdown, but inflation and high prices persist. The last time the world went through a stagflationary period was during the 1970s oil shocks, when high oil prices caused high inflation worldwide and a recession in countries that imported large oil volumes from the Middle East.

Stagflation can be considered the worst of all worlds, as inflation usually tends to counteract a shrinking economy. But the same conditions that kick-started 1970s stagflation appear to be making a return.

“The interest rate increases that were required to control inflation at the end of the 1970s were so steep that they touched off a global recession, along with a string of debt crises in developing economies, ushering in a ‘lost decade’ in some of them,” Malpass wrote, adding that the same patterns of subdued growth, high interest rates, and escalating public debt in many countries are playing out today.

On June 1, 2022, the Task Force to Study and Develop Reparation Proposals for African Americans issued its interim report to the California Legislature. The interim report surveys the ongoing and compounding harms experienced by African Americans as a result of slavery and its lingering effects on American society today. The interim report also includes a set of preliminary recommendations for policies that the California Legislature could adopt to remedy those harms. A final report will be issued before July 1, 2023.

Full Interim Report

Executive Summary

Key Findings

Preliminary Recommendations

AB 3121: Reparations Task Force

AB 3121: Reparations Task Force Home

Reparations Task Force Meetings

Reparations Task Force Members

Congress has allocated another $20,000,000 in EIDL grants (advances) in the new stimulus bill. It appears these grants are meant to fill a gap for businesses that may not have received the full $10,000 EIDL grants described in the CARES Act. 

By way of background, the CARES Act that was passed March 27, 2020 included a grant (or advance) for those who applied for an EIDL loan, in the amount of up to $10,000. The SBA later determined that those grants would be made in an amount of $1000 per employee. Many business owners felt cheated. In addition, the funds available for grants were exhausted before all eligible businesses received them. This new legislation appears to fix these problems.

Worth noting: Businesses that applied for an EIDL— even earlier in 2020– and meet the qualifications may receive the full $10,000 grant (minus any amount already received) even if their EIDL applications were not approved. 

How do I qualify for the new EIDL grant?

To qualify for the full $10,000 EIDL grant, a business must: 

Be located in a low-income community

Have suffered an economic loss greater than 30%

Employ not more than 300 employees

In addition, the business must qualify as an eligible entity as defined in the CARES Act:  

A small business, cooperative, ESOP Tribal concern, with fewer than 300 employees

An individual who operates under as a sole proprietorship, with or without employees, or as an independent contractor; or

A private non-profit or small agricultural cooperative.

The business must have been in operation by January 31, 2020

The business must be directly affected by COVID-19

Economic loss is defined as “the amount by which the gross receipts of the covered entity declined during an 8-week period between March 2, 2020, and December 17, 2021, relative to a comparable 8-week period immediately preceding March 2, 2020, or during 2019.”  The SBA will come up with a formula for seasonal businesses. 

A low income community is defined in Section 45D(e) of the Internal Revenue Code of 7 1986 as follows: 

“The term “low-income community” means any population census tract if the poverty rate for such tract is at least 20 percent, or in the case of a tract not located within a metropolitan area, the median family income for such tract does not exceed 80 percent of statewide median family income, or in the case of a tract located within a metropolitan area, the median family income for such tract does not exceed 80 percent of the greater of statewide median family income or the metropolitan area median family income.” (There are some additional ways areas may qualify as a low-income community in that reference.) 

Are EIDL grants taxable?

Good news! The new legislation clarifies that EIDL grants are not taxable, that businesses who receive them will not be denied a tax deduction for qualified expenses paid for with those funds, and that EIDL grants will not be deducted from PPP for loan forgiveness purposes. 

What else do I need to know? 

According to the legislation, the SBA will have 21 days after receiving the business owner’s request to verify whether the business qualifies and, if so, to provide the advance. 

This program extends through December 31, 2020. 

How do I apply for these new EIDL grants?

We are waiting for details from the Small Business Administration and will update this article when they are available. 

In addition to the EIDL grants your business may qualify for a new PPP loan.