🌪️THE EXTREME🌪️

Me and your mama can’t wait to meet you, kiddo.

@aint-no-love-in-jo-klahoma you’re so pretty pregnant…well you’re always pretty. I was just saying that since a lot of women feel like a “whale” when pregnant which you aren’t one.

During the days of May 19th through the 22nd of 2024, the Great Plains and Upper Midwest of the Central United States was struck by a tornado outbreak where 81 tornadoes touched down. In just 3 days, 27 EF0s, 37 EF1s, 6 EF2s, 2 EF3s and 1 EF4 touched down, impacting the states of Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, Minnesota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas and Wisconsin. A total of $4.9 billion USD in damage was caused, as were countless injuries and deaths to animals, and 69 injuries and 5 deaths to humans.

The worst tornado of the outbreak was the May 21st, 2024 Greenfield, Iowa “EF4” tornado me and Jo both chased. I was 69 and Jo was 68. And the craziest thing about this tornado is that it yet again is another tornado completely ripped off by the National Weather Service (NWS) of an EF5 rating.

Either way, we will be talking about the Greenfield EF5 (I’m calling it an EF5 the damage deserves a rating).

WARNING: Topics of death and destruction will be discussed. Reader discretion is advised.

We are EXHAUSTED! So glad to be home!

Goodnight!

The first leg of the 1996 Tornado Season is over, which means we have until September off. Jo and I are currently brainstorming vacation ideas since why not?

But yeah, we’re driving back to Wakita and we have a 13 hour and 44 minute drive until we get back. Jo and I will switch places at the halfway point. See you guys soon.

Just so you guys know, I decided to quit the chase because I knew nothing would happen and welp, I was right.

But, that means the first Tornado Season of 1996 has sadly come to an end. Now we have until September off.

We’re going to bed now. Goodnight!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for southeast Minnesota and west, central and east Wisconsin at 3:20 PM CDT. It is valid until 10:00 PM CDT tonight. A tornado risk is possible.

Here is the Surface Analysis by the National Weather Service (NWS). That’s the upper-level shortwave trough currently coming through.

Dewpoint temperatures on the mesonet show temperatures in the 80s (F) which is favorable for tornadoes.

There however is no humidity according to the 700 mb.

But there is a lot of cold air advection according to the 500 mb which is not wanted.

CAPE values are unstable at 5,000 J/kg!

Bulk Shear - Effective however isn’t fast enough, only going 35 kts.

Bulk Shear - Sfc - 3km is better though at 25 kts.

SR Helicity - Sfc - 1km however isn’t. In our area, it’s 50 s^2/m^2 which is not favorable. Still is possible though.

We currently are chasing a cluster of storms through Wisconsin. Here they are on radar. Hopefully we’ll get a tornado today to finish off the 1996 Storm Chasing Season…until September through November because then it ramps up all over again 🤣.

Stay safe today! Like I always say, please be sure to pay attention to the weather and listen to your alerts and warnings! Talk to you guys later!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has released today’s convective outlook for severe weather.

📍LOCATIONS📍 • ENHANCED 3/5 RISK 🟧 -> Kansas: A 30% hatched chance for wind gusts and a 15% hatched chance for hail • SLIGHT 2/5 RISK 🟨 -> Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Texas, Vermont & Wisconsin: A 2% chance for tornadoes, a 15% hatched chance for wind gusts and a 15% hatched chance for hail • MARGINAL 1/5 RISK 🟩 -> Alabama, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Texas, Vermont & Wisconsin: A 5% chance for wind gusts and a 5% hatched chance for hail

🕘TIMELINE🕒 Late Afternoon-Evening

⚠️HAZARDS⚠️ 1. Tornadoes 🌪️ 2. Severe Thunderstorms ⛈️ 3. Hail 🧊 4. Wind Gusts 💨

SYNOPSIS Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central High Plains, with severe wind gusts (60 to 85 mph) being the primary hazard during the late afternoon and evening. Other severe thunderstorms are expected across the Great Lakes and northeast, as well as broader parts of the Central Plains to the mid Missouri Valley.

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast later this afternoon over the High Plains on the western rim of richer low-level moisture and strong insolation. Model guidance shows considerable erosion of the capping layer by mid-afternoon with MLCAPE ranging from 1500 J/kg over the Texas South Plains to 3500 J/kg over western Kansas. Initially higher-based convection will gradually move east into richer moisture and promote larger thunderstorm cores and increased potential for storm clusters to develop. Large hail will be possible with any initial supercell activity. However, very steep surface to 300-mb lapse rates will favor strong evaporative cooling with the more intense cores. Ample deep-layer shear will exist for organized storms, but veering/backing of flow with height will aid in storm outflow aggregating as linear clusters become the primary storm mode with time. These organized but linear clusters will likely be efficient in promoting severe wind gusts (60-85 mph) during the early evening, coincident with a strengthening LLJ and WAA before this threat wanes by late evening. Weaker deep-layer shear farther south in the southern High Plains will likely limit both storm organization and overall coverage of the wind risk.

Later into this evening, confidence has increased in mainly nocturnal development in a post-frontal environment, that will probably have its genesis by early evening in the vicinity of northeast Colorado/southwest Nebraska. These storms will likely increase/expand northeastward tonight with large hail and damaging wind potential, which could actually increase and become somewhat more prominent overnight across northern Nebraska/southeast South Dakota and neighboring Siouxland as storms cluster and as the warm front quickly shifts northward regionally.

A few strong storms could occur early this afternoon across northern Michigan, but primary concern is the potential for redevelopment later today, potentially focused along a zone of modifying outflow and differential heating, with robust instability to the south. Although the degree of mid-level capping is a key uncertainty, where storms do redevelop, ample tropospheric flow will support organized storms, including supercells capable primarily of a hail and wind risk and perhaps a tornado. Storms will likely become more probable and increase this evening with at least some hail and wind potential continuing tonight.

A cluster of storms over southeast Ontario at midday will likely continue to progress southeastward over Lake Ontario toward northern New York today. These storms coincide with a 30-40 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow that resides on the immediate periphery of a gradually building upper-level ridge and associated elevated mixed layer. Residual cloud cover, via overnight/pre-dawn decayed convection, casts a bit of uncertainty regarding boundary layer destabilization over portions of this region, especially with northeastward extent. Nonetheless, increasing storm coverage intensity is expected this afternoon including clusters, bowing segments and possibly a few supercells.

Located to the south of an upper high centered over the Tennessee Valley, a very moist air mass is present across much of the region. Strong heating will yield moderate buoyancy by early afternoon. Forecast soundings depict around 20-kt effective shear which will aid in minor multicellular organization. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of isolated wind damage will accompany the stronger storms.

‼️STAY WEATHER AWARE‼️

We’re gonna get some sleep now. Talk to you guys later.

Multiple brief tornadoes touched down in Minnesota today and we got pictures of both of them!

This was explosive development of a mesocyclone in Fargo, Minnesota.

Wall cloud in Fargo!

See the debris cloud? That’s a tornado. This was northwest of Hawley, Minnesota.

Here’s another omen this one is a needle shape! This one was in Hitterdal, Minnesota.

Lots of power outages due to these tornadoes and storms today haha. But there is a 2% chance for tornadoes tomorrow in Wisconsin. I know the risk is pretty small, but this is the closest risk we have since the bigger one is in New York and we wouldn’t make it in time. So we’re heading to Ashland, Wisconsin which is a 4 hour drive, meaning we’d get there at 3:38 AM CDT.

We will see you guys then! Talk to you later!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has just issued a Tornado Watch for central North Dakota, north-northeastern South Dakota and northwestern Minnesota at 1:55 PM CDT. It is valid until 10:00 PM CDT.

The National Weather Service (NWS) has also released today’s Surface Analysis showing that short-wave trough coming through with a cold front.

The mesonet is currently showing dewpoint temperatures in the 60s and 70s (F) which is favorable for tornadoes.

The 700 mb is showing some humidity which is good. You need humidity.

There is however, a lot of cold air advection according to the 500 mb.

CAPE values are extremely unstable up to 5,500 J/kg! That is high instability.

Bulk Shear - Effective is looking extremely good with wind shear at 70 kts!

Then the Bulk Shear - Sfc - 3km is looking very good with wind shear at 35 kts!

SR Helicity - Sfc - 1km looks amazing with up to 300 m^2/s^2!

Clearly, tornadoes are likely and we currently are after a Severe Thunderstorm Warned storm that has a Tornado Possible tag on it!

Here it is on radar!

Stay safe today and pay attention to those warnings and alerts! Those are there to save your life!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has released today’s convective outlook for severe weather.

📍LOCATIONS📍 • ENHANCED 3/5 RISK 🟧 -> Minnesota: A 5% hatched chance for tornadoes, a 30% hatched chance for wind gusts and a 15% hatched chance for hail • SLIGHT 2/5 RISK 🟨 -> Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota & Wisconsin: A 5% hatched chance for tornadoes, a 15% hatched chance for wind gusts and a 15% hatched chance for hail • MARGINAL 1/5 RISK 🟩 -> Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Michigan Nebraska, North Dakota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Dakota, South Carolina, Texas & Wisconsin: A 2% chance for tornadoes (in some locations), a 5% chance for wind gusts and a 5% chance for hail

🕘TIMELINE🕒 Morning-Evening

⚠️HAZARDS⚠️ 1. Tornadoes 🌪️ 2. Severe Thunderstorms ⛈️ 3. Hail 🧊 4. Wind Gusts 💨

SYNOPSIS Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest today. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also occur.

A shortwave trough will advance eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains today. At the surface, a low will move northward out of Nebraska into the Dakotas, with a cold front and dry line extending southward to a secondary low across the Central Plains. Thunderstorm activity is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period near the northern surface low across portions of the Dakotas. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected in the wake of the morning convection near the warm front lifting across North Dakota into Minnesota and near the cold front back into portions of the Mid-Missouri Valley and Central Plains.

Elevated supercell activity is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the Dakotas near the surface low and nose of the low-level jet axis. The environment will be characterized by moderate to strong instability and strong deep layer shear. Guidance suggests that this will have the potential to produce large to very large hail and damaging wind.

As the low develops, a warm front will extend into North Dakota/Minnesota by the afternoon. Evolution of the morning activity remains uncertain, but it appears that additional storms will develop near the warm front and back near the low/cold front into the afternoon. Near the warm front, filtered heating through broken low to mid-level cloud cover will allow for moderate instability by the afternoon. A plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates will advect northward through the afternoon. The favorable thermodynamic profiles and strong deep layer shear around 45-50 kts will support potential for supercells. If these storms can become surface based, they will be capable of all hazards.

Back west near the cold front low, initial supercells are possible by the afternoon. These will have potential primarily for large hail and damaging wind. Boundary parallel deep-layer shear will likely lead to clustering upscale growth with time. Strong to extreme instability is expected ahead of the cold front across portions of the western Dakotas into the Midwest. As the low-level jet increases into the evening, it is possible that a corridor of more favorable damaging wind potential (including significant gusts 75+ mph) may evolve. For now, confidence in convective evolution is low with a few CAMs suppressing convection towards the evening along the front amid the strong EML until later in the evening around 06z.

Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible near the dryline in Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas. Moderate instability is expected within this region with generally weak deep layer shear. This will likely keep more widespread severe potential low. However, a few stronger storms may be capable of strong winds given deeply mixed profiles. For now, this potential remains too isolated to include probabilities.

‼️STAY WEATHER AWARE‼️

On June 1st, 1990, Pecos County, Texas got annihilated by an “F4” tornado. This tornado was the Bakersfield Valley tornado, a tornado me and Jo both chased.

This tornado is one of the strongest tornadoes in Texas history, yet one of the most forgotten. But that ends today, for we will be talking about it.

WARNING: Topics of death and destruction will be discussed. Reader discretion is advised

So the tornado threat has diminished and moved into TOMORROW! EXCUSE ME!? YOU MEAN I COULD’VE ACTUALLY SLEPT A FULL 8 HOURS INSTEAD OF DRIVING ALL NIGHT!?!? THANK YOU WEATHER!!! THANK YOU FOR WASTING MY GODDAMN TIME!!! SON OF A BITCH!!!!

Damn I’m tired. I’m gonna get some shuteye. I’ll talk to you guys when I wake up.

@aint-no-love-in-jo-klahoma get your sexy ass over here and let me hold you.