For me the biggest thing that makes the Fable shutdown a Leopards Eating People's Faces moment is not the fact that Anthropic asked for regulation and got regulated (although there is some of that) but that Anthropic has gone out of their way to make "AI safety" into a specifically nationalist issue, about ensuring US technological dominance. For example from a few days ago:
“These safeguards prevent foreign adversaries from using our most capable models in ways that pose severe safety risks. The US and its allies hold an edge in frontier chips and the highly optimized software that runs them at full potential,” the company said in a statement to WIRED. “These safeguards ensure Claude isn't used to erode that advantage—by optimizing chips developed by those adversaries, for example.”
and now Anthropic's noncitizen employees can't use Mythos! Which isn't to say that there is a direct causal link there or that Anthropic is responsible for the Trump administration's actions, but one might hope that it would make Anthropic warier of that kind of framing in the future.
...not that I'm holding my breath. I would have expected that getting penalized by the US government for refusing to enable autonomous killbots and domestic surveillance would have already tempered Dario Amodei's nationalism somewhat, but it doesn't really seem to have.
I don't think this is a Leopard Party Moment; this is just a failed forced gambit. Heavy AI national security regulation was 100%, absolutely, fully locked in on every world line, a thing that was going to happen. Not this specific form or anything, but the Pentagon and all that crew were guaranteed to bring every big AI company to the table. And when Trump was elected - something Anthropic as a company or Amodei specifically didn't do anything notable to bring about - the angle of that regulation was almost certainly going to be about nationalist power.
Anthropic was just trying to get ahead of the curve on the issue - it is going to happen, best be at the table when it does so we can have a voice. It isn't like OpenAI opposes all regulation themselves either; they are opposing state-level efforts at regulation by backed federal-level regulations, and have gone in almost entirely on the "national security" angle. Because they have to! This is a done deal.
Honestly what is happening right now is a pretty decent argument (from Anthropic's perspective) for the regulatory regime they are pushing for. If Congress actually passed a compromise AI regulation framework, then it would (hopefully) define explicitly what the national security obligations & risks are, and Anthropic could build a legal compliance team that reliably meets those obligations and make easy arguments in court. The fact that the field is a legal grey area is part of the reason the Trump administration can do whatever the fuck it wants and bully them around (Ofc it is Trump, fundamental disregard for the law is the other reason and there isn't anything companies can do about that). If Congress had passed a bill specifying the roles AI could have in autonomous kill strikes, for example, Anthropic could possibly not be in this mess to begin with because instead of having to make a "principled stand" they could have just said their hands were tied by the law. Congress is just too slow to act on the timescales needed for an industry moving as fast as theirs.
(Ofc it is Trump, fundamental disregard for the law is the other reason and there isn't anything companies can do about that)
Well, there is one thing...

















