Mo Hossain @ Ennovance Capital

Software PE is sitting on an aging inventory. Nearly 900 of ~3,250 active portfolio companies have been held 5+ years, and most of the rest were bought in the 2020–21 zero‑rate binge.

With exit channels clogged since the 2022 hikes, GPs are stuck well past the 3–5yr norm squeezing LP distributions.

#privateequity #Exit #fund

China’s GDP per capita is rising, but the U.S. is still playing in a different league. Six‑to‑one gap, widening productivity spread, and demographics doing the rest.

• USA: ~$80,000 GDP per capita

• China: ~$13,000 GDP per capita

• Gap: The U.S. is 6× larger on a per‑person basis.

𝟒.𝟑% 𝐂𝐏𝐈: 𝐫𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐧 𝐫𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐦𝐞, 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝟏𝟎𝟓‑𝐲𝐫 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐛𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧.

US CPI at ~4.3% YoY would break back above the 1–4% zone that captured 53% of prints since 1921 and 83% since 1992.

History says inflation >4% isn’t rare (≈27% of monthly observations), but it arrives in waves — WWII, the 1970s, late‑80s boom, pre‑GFC, post‑Covid.

The Sunshine Silver IPO is less about a 140‑year‑old mine and more about the regime shift underneath it: capital is rotating toward hard‑asset optionality, strategic minerals, and AI‑driven industrial demand. A dormant U.S. silver deposit clearing a $1.9B valuation and jumping 27% on debut sits in the same flow regime as the $9.9B Q1 IPO window, the 60% YTD silver spike, and the capex supercycle around data centers, solar, and defense metals.

In a world where compute, electrification, and geopolitics are colliding, the market is repricing resource scarcity + domestic supply chains as growth assets—not cyclicals. Sunshine’s plan to lift U.S. silver output >15% by 2028 is a micro expression of a macro truth: the new industrial policy is mineral throughput.

𝐎𝐢𝐥 𝐓𝐚𝐩𝐞: 𝐓𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐒𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐌𝐞𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐃𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐅𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞

Brent +1.1% WoW to $93.1, WTI +3.6% to $90.5, spread now just $2.6/b—U.S. barrels converging toward seaborne benchmarks.

#OPEC output at multi‑decade low (~16.3mbd, Iran >½ of the drop), Hormuz traffic minimal, U.S. inventories down 16mb WoW to 791mb, rigs basically flat (431 oil / 124 gas).

But the tape isn’t one‑way: China crude imports at decade lows, demand forecasts now flirting with contraction, while Russia exports ~3.46mbd—highest since early Ukraine war.

Net: structurally tight supply vs. increasingly fragile demand. At $90+ crude, the risk skew is shifting from “energy squeeze” toward “growth scare.”

#energysecurity #oott #investors $ @ennovance

https://x.com/mohossain/status/2063775796326457480?s=46

OPEC share ↓40→34%, US inventories ↓2.2bn→~1.5bn (22‑yr low) —> supply power eroding as buffers vanish.

#oott #energysecurity #opec #investor

Two charts, one story:

• Solo‑founder formation surging

• ADP employment re‑accelerating

AI is lowering the cost of entrepreneurship AND boosting labor demand.

𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐲 → 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧, 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧.

𝐉𝐞𝐯𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐨𝐱, 𝐥𝐢𝐯𝐞.

ht:Apollo/cnbc @ennovance

LAST WEEK: S&P 500 ENJOYING 𝐋𝐎𝐍𝐆𝐄𝐒𝐓 𝐑𝐔𝐍 𝐎𝐅 𝐖𝐄𝐄𝐊𝐋𝐘 𝐆𝐀𝐈𝐍𝐒 𝐒𝐈𝐍𝐂𝐄 𝟏𝟗𝟖𝟓

𝐖𝐚𝐫 𝐬𝐡𝐮𝐟𝐟𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐰𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐡 𝐨𝐰𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐬; 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐲 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐭 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬; 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐒𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐰𝐢𝐧‑𝐖𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐦𝐬 𝐬𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐭 𝐨𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐳𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧? 𝐈𝐧 𝐚 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐥𝐝 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐰𝐢𝐫𝐞𝐬 𝐬𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐜𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐨𝐨𝐥𝐬,… Akzo–Axalta ‘merger of equals’ (only ~$600m synergies = 6% of cost base) has now triggered a Sherwin–Nippon joint bid. Latest offer: ~€12.5bn EV (~€15.4bn incl. debt), a 39% premium vs undisturbed; Akzo stock +25% since approach. Moody’s flags elevated event‑risk: Sherwin would need sizable debt financing, pushing leverage temporarily higher, though strategic fit mirrors its Valspar playbook (9% cuts → ~€6bn PV). Akzo’s US‑listing rerate case implies ~€19bn EV on ~11× comps, but execution risk remains. Board now risks a 2017‑style repeat after rejecting PPG’s 50% premium.

#chemicals #paints #coatings #housing #realestate mergerarb ht:baml/ecl @ennovance

Airlines, building products, and chemicals face the sharpest credit strain from Middle East conflict risk. Aerospace & defense and non‑Gulf energy producers gain. #Oil steady near $90–$110 bbl under prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption

https://x.com/mohossain/status/2004972110951731284?s=46 #energysecurity #oott #investor ht:MCO @ennovance

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭’𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬, 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐚 𝐥𝐚𝐜𝐤 𝐨𝐟 the CEO 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐩 at $ASH.

$ASH The stock printed a 3‑yr high of ~$95 (Mar ’24) and now trades near $58, a ~39% drawdown despite activist accumulation.

Standard Investments lifted its stake to 4.095M shares, adding 490K at $54–$58, but the ownership shift hasn’t reversed the multi‑year value erosion.

Liquidity remains thin (~13% of avg volume), short interest at 11.4% of float, and fundamentals still negative (TTM EPS –$15.35).

… activist engagement is rising, but the equity still sits materially below prior-cycle highs, with governance catalysts required to re-rate the name. Broader 13D activity across GeneDX and peers reinforces the theme: event‑driven capital is stepping in where long‑only capital has stepped back.

More via barronsonline

#hedgefund #investor #Chemical #Privateequity

🚀𝑻𝒘𝒐‑𝑴𝒐𝒏𝒕𝒉 𝑬𝒒𝒖𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝑴𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒖𝒎 𝑹𝒆𝒂𝒄𝒉𝒆𝒔 𝑹𝒂𝒓𝒆 𝑯𝒊𝒔𝒕𝒐𝒓𝒊𝒄𝒂𝒍 𝑬𝒙𝒕𝒓𝒆𝒎𝒆𝒔

S&P +16% in Apr–May = 99th‑pct 2‑mo momentum since ’45.

Only 4 analogs this fast: ’74, ’09, ’20 (post‑recession resets) and ’87 (non‑recession melt‑up).

The only non‑recession precedent is 1987, when a +17% Jan–Feb surge ran until summer… then the S&P dropped ‑33% in <2 months, including ‑20.5% on Black Monday.

Today’s backdrop rhymes: stretched valuations, hawkish repricing, deficit optics, momentum‑heavy tape, but with AI‑driven earnings strength on the other side.

Binary vibes. Fat‑tail season. Velocity is the signal.

#Riskarb #Hedgefund #Investor ht:db @ennovance

𝑊𝑜𝑤! 𝑃𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑤𝑎𝑠 ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑢𝑔ℎ 𝑏𝑒𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑙𝑜𝑡 𝑚𝑎𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝑚𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑜 𝑌𝑜𝑢𝑇𝑢𝑏𝑒, 𝑛𝑜𝑤 𝑖𝑡’𝑠 𝑔𝑢𝑚𝑚𝑖𝑒𝑠, 𝑐𝑎𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑖𝑛𝑒, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑙𝑔𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑚𝑖𝑐 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑙𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑘𝑖𝑑𝑠 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑜 𝐴𝑅𝑃𝑈.

Youth gambling pipeline looks increasingly industrial: 84% of boys whose friends gamble also gamble; only 17% do so when none of their friends do. Ads hit them everywhere, YouTube (61%), social (60%), sports broadcasts (57%). Content often arrives passively: 59% say gambling clips “just showed up” in their feed. The industry isn’t waiting for adulthood.

More via PhillyInquirer ⬇️

#Philadelphia #sportsgambling #pennsylvania #kids