Mo Hossain @ Ennovance Capital

China’s GDP per capita is rising, but the U.S. is still playing in a different league. Six‑to‑one gap, widening productivity spread, and demographics doing the rest.

• USA: ~$80,000 GDP per capita

• China: ~$13,000 GDP per capita

• Gap: The U.S. is 6× larger on a per‑person basis.

𝟒.𝟑% 𝐂𝐏𝐈: 𝐫𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐧 𝐫𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐦𝐞, 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝟏𝟎𝟓‑𝐲𝐫 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐛𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧.

US CPI at ~4.3% YoY would break back above the 1–4% zone that captured 53% of prints since 1921 and 83% since 1992.

History says inflation >4% isn’t rare (≈27% of monthly observations), but it arrives in waves — WWII, the 1970s, late‑80s boom, pre‑GFC, post‑Covid.

The Sunshine Silver IPO is less about a 140‑year‑old mine and more about the regime shift underneath it: capital is rotating toward hard‑asset optionality, strategic minerals, and AI‑driven industrial demand. A dormant U.S. silver deposit clearing a $1.9B valuation and jumping 27% on debut sits in the same flow regime as the $9.9B Q1 IPO window, the 60% YTD silver spike, and the capex supercycle around data centers, solar, and defense metals.

In a world where compute, electrification, and geopolitics are colliding, the market is repricing resource scarcity + domestic supply chains as growth assets—not cyclicals. Sunshine’s plan to lift U.S. silver output >15% by 2028 is a micro expression of a macro truth: the new industrial policy is mineral throughput.

𝐎𝐢𝐥 𝐓𝐚𝐩𝐞: 𝐓𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐒𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐌𝐞𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐃𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐅𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞

Brent +1.1% WoW to $93.1, WTI +3.6% to $90.5, spread now just $2.6/b—U.S. barrels converging toward seaborne benchmarks.

#OPEC output at multi‑decade low (~16.3mbd, Iran >½ of the drop), Hormuz traffic minimal, U.S. inventories down 16mb WoW to 791mb, rigs basically flat (431 oil / 124 gas).

But the tape isn’t one‑way: China crude imports at decade lows, demand forecasts now flirting with contraction, while Russia exports ~3.46mbd—highest since early Ukraine war.

Net: structurally tight supply vs. increasingly fragile demand. At $90+ crude, the risk skew is shifting from “energy squeeze” toward “growth scare.”

#energysecurity #oott #investors $ @ennovance

https://x.com/mohossain/status/2063775796326457480?s=46

OPEC share ↓40→34%, US inventories ↓2.2bn→~1.5bn (22‑yr low) —> supply power eroding as buffers vanish.

#oott #energysecurity #opec #investor

Two charts, one story:

• Solo‑founder formation surging

• ADP employment re‑accelerating

AI is lowering the cost of entrepreneurship AND boosting labor demand.

𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐲 → 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧, 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧.

𝐉𝐞𝐯𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐨𝐱, 𝐥𝐢𝐯𝐞.

ht:Apollo/cnbc @ennovance

LAST WEEK: S&P 500 ENJOYING 𝐋𝐎𝐍𝐆𝐄𝐒𝐓 𝐑𝐔𝐍 𝐎𝐅 𝐖𝐄𝐄𝐊𝐋𝐘 𝐆𝐀𝐈𝐍𝐒 𝐒𝐈𝐍𝐂𝐄 𝟏𝟗𝟖𝟓

𝐖𝐚𝐫 𝐬𝐡𝐮𝐟𝐟𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐰𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐡 𝐨𝐰𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐬; 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐲 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐭 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬; 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐒𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐰𝐢𝐧‑𝐖𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐦𝐬 𝐬𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐭 𝐨𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐳𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧? 𝐈𝐧 𝐚 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐥𝐝 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐰𝐢𝐫𝐞𝐬 𝐬𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐜𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐨𝐨𝐥𝐬,… Akzo–Axalta ‘merger of equals’ (only ~$600m synergies = 6% of cost base) has now triggered a Sherwin–Nippon joint bid. Latest offer: ~€12.5bn EV (~€15.4bn incl. debt), a 39% premium vs undisturbed; Akzo stock +25% since approach. Moody’s flags elevated event‑risk: Sherwin would need sizable debt financing, pushing leverage temporarily higher, though strategic fit mirrors its Valspar playbook (9% cuts → ~€6bn PV). Akzo’s US‑listing rerate case implies ~€19bn EV on ~11× comps, but execution risk remains. Board now risks a 2017‑style repeat after rejecting PPG’s 50% premium.

#chemicals #paints #coatings #housing #realestate mergerarb ht:baml/ecl @ennovance

Airlines, building products, and chemicals face the sharpest credit strain from Middle East conflict risk. Aerospace & defense and non‑Gulf energy producers gain. #Oil steady near $90–$110 bbl under prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption

https://x.com/mohossain/status/2004972110951731284?s=46 #energysecurity #oott #investor ht:MCO @ennovance

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭’𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬, 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐚 𝐥𝐚𝐜𝐤 𝐨𝐟 the CEO 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐩 at $ASH.

$ASH The stock printed a 3‑yr high of ~$95 (Mar ’24) and now trades near $58, a ~39% drawdown despite activist accumulation.

Standard Investments lifted its stake to 4.095M shares, adding 490K at $54–$58, but the ownership shift hasn’t reversed the multi‑year value erosion.

Liquidity remains thin (~13% of avg volume), short interest at 11.4% of float, and fundamentals still negative (TTM EPS –$15.35).

… activist engagement is rising, but the equity still sits materially below prior-cycle highs, with governance catalysts required to re-rate the name. Broader 13D activity across GeneDX and peers reinforces the theme: event‑driven capital is stepping in where long‑only capital has stepped back.

More via barronsonline

#hedgefund #investor #Chemical #Privateequity

🚀𝑻𝒘𝒐‑𝑴𝒐𝒏𝒕𝒉 𝑬𝒒𝒖𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝑴𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒖𝒎 𝑹𝒆𝒂𝒄𝒉𝒆𝒔 𝑹𝒂𝒓𝒆 𝑯𝒊𝒔𝒕𝒐𝒓𝒊𝒄𝒂𝒍 𝑬𝒙𝒕𝒓𝒆𝒎𝒆𝒔

S&P +16% in Apr–May = 99th‑pct 2‑mo momentum since ’45.

Only 4 analogs this fast: ’74, ’09, ’20 (post‑recession resets) and ’87 (non‑recession melt‑up).

The only non‑recession precedent is 1987, when a +17% Jan–Feb surge ran until summer… then the S&P dropped ‑33% in <2 months, including ‑20.5% on Black Monday.

Today’s backdrop rhymes: stretched valuations, hawkish repricing, deficit optics, momentum‑heavy tape, but with AI‑driven earnings strength on the other side.

Binary vibes. Fat‑tail season. Velocity is the signal.

#Riskarb #Hedgefund #Investor ht:db @ennovance

𝑊𝑜𝑤! 𝑃𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑤𝑎𝑠 ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑢𝑔ℎ 𝑏𝑒𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑙𝑜𝑡 𝑚𝑎𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝑚𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑜 𝑌𝑜𝑢𝑇𝑢𝑏𝑒, 𝑛𝑜𝑤 𝑖𝑡’𝑠 𝑔𝑢𝑚𝑚𝑖𝑒𝑠, 𝑐𝑎𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑖𝑛𝑒, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑙𝑔𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑚𝑖𝑐 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑙𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑘𝑖𝑑𝑠 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑜 𝐴𝑅𝑃𝑈.

Youth gambling pipeline looks increasingly industrial: 84% of boys whose friends gamble also gamble; only 17% do so when none of their friends do. Ads hit them everywhere, YouTube (61%), social (60%), sports broadcasts (57%). Content often arrives passively: 59% say gambling clips “just showed up” in their feed. The industry isn’t waiting for adulthood.

More via PhillyInquirer ⬇️

#Philadelphia #sportsgambling #pennsylvania #kids

𝐒𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡 𝐇𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝟓𝟕% 𝐘𝐓𝐃 𝐚𝐬 𝐉𝐏𝐌 𝐖𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐬 𝐑𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐋𝐨𝐨𝐤𝐬 𝐅𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐢𝐥𝐞

Profitless‑tech mania in one line: GS non‑profitable tech +27% in May, +57% YTD vs S&P +11; widest gap vs Nasdaq 100 since 2020. JPM flags elevated yields + rising borrowing costs as acute stress points. Retail + institutional flows chasing max‑leverage push profitless + retail‑fav baskets into near‑perfect correlation. Quality tech supported by buybacks; irony: once these firms earn, valuation gravity hits. Rising Treasury yields now bleeding into semis via client debt. Classic late‑cycle high‑beta froth with dot‑com‑style asymmetry.

more via BBG