Mo Hossain @ Ennovance Capital

𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚’𝐬 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔 𝐦𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 = 𝐬𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐯𝐬. 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐲 𝐢𝐧 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦.

IP grinding at 4.5% YoY, but the demand side is unraveling: FAI -10.7%, infra -10.8%, property investment -24.9%, real retail <0%. The construction spine is still broken, new starts & sales in deep contraction, and excavator utilization hours sliding despite headline +30% YoY domestic sales (base effects). Exports tell the truth: -34% YoY.

China keeps “building” but not absorbing, the 𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑦‑𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑏𝑟𝑖𝑢𝑚 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑠. The gap between production (~5% YoY) and domestic demand (flat-to-negative) is now structural, and policy remains muted.

Dumping into the EU and routing goods into the U.S. via “mule” countries remains increasingly tricky as scrutiny tightens and trade partners push back on surplus absorption.

𝐈𝐬 𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐰𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐠, 𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐧𝐞𝐠𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥 𝐰𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐬, 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝‑𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐥𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞

A.I. = Catch‑22: if it wins, jobs go; if it busts, 401(k)s go.

•Real wages negative.

•Labor share at all‑time lows.

•Top 0.00001% wealth = 12% of GDP (4× Gilded Age), hold 12% of U.S. output.

•Top 0.1% own $13.7T in stock—> more than the bottom 90%

•Billionaire wealth +40% in 2 yrs.

•First trillionaire + thousands of new millionaires as workers fear A.I. job loss.

•Cost of living surges: insurance, gas, cars, utilities, debt service, education, and core essentials all re‑accelerating.

https://x.com/mohossain/status/2065894402573074760?s=46

Is Oil’s Calm a Mirage?

Oil <$100 because the 3 shock‑absorbers still hold: China’s –3mb/d import hole — Beijing’s planners spinning in circles with weak industry, crushed margins, refinery cuts to stay alive, inventory draws, FX stress, and limp consumer fuel demand; US jawboning draining weekend risk; and Gulf flows clawing back from ~1mb/d → 2.5mb/d via “dark” India‑bound transits + pipelines. But OECD stocks sliding toward 2.3bn bbl and Cushing flirting with critical lows = the real tail risk. Physical models flash $150–$160 once inventories breach the floor.

📰More via WSJ

https://x.com/wsj/status/2065814893089919240?s=46

Interesting take by FT

𝐀𝐈 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐞𝐱 𝐒𝐮𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐲𝐜𝐥𝐞 𝐄𝐧𝐝𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡‑𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐄𝐫𝐚

⬇️

AI = regime shift in capital formation.

Hyperscaler capex ramps 6× → $815B (’23–’27), driving –70% FCF from prior $233B print‑rate.

Big Tech’s $800B buyback engine stalls → re‑equitisation replaces 20yrs of de‑equitisation.

SpaceX burn $9B/Q1; IPO wave (GOOG $85B raise + Meta/OpenAI/Anthropic) → $400–500B gross issuance.

AI/tech/data infra spend = $2T+, ~7% GDP, matching ’07 housing > ’99 tech.

IPO waves historically → sub‑avg forward returns, ↑vol, valuation compression risk.

US capex boom widens CA deficit; global savings pulled into USD assets → marginal ↑rates, crowd‑out risk for energy/defense capex.

Street models hyperscaler FCF inflecting ’27 → parabolic, requires heroic ROIC in a rising‑capex, falling‑moat environment.

Late‑cycle confidence + Giffen‑good equity dynamics = classic boom‑to‑bust setup.

Old regime (cash‑machine tech) → new regime (capital‑hungry AI).

https://x.com/mohossain/status/2065923394751570050?s=46

Is Oil’s Calm a Mirage?

Oil <$100 because the 3 shock‑absorbers still hold: China’s –3mb/d import hole — Beijing’s planners spinning in circles with weak industry, crushed margins, refinery cuts to stay alive, inventory draws, FX stress, and limp consumer fuel demand; US jawboning draining weekend risk; and Gulf flows clawing back from ~1mb/d → 2.5mb/d via “dark” India‑bound transits + pipelines. But OECD stocks sliding toward 2.3bn bbl and Cushing flirting with critical lows = the real tail risk. Physical models flash $150–$160 once inventories breach the floor.

📰More via WSJ

https://x.com/wsj/status/2065814893089919240?s=46

𝐈𝐬 𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐰𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐠, 𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐧𝐞𝐠𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥 𝐰𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐬, 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝‑𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐥𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞

A.I. = Catch‑22: if it wins, jobs go; if it busts, 401(k)s go.

•Real wages negative.

•Labor share at all‑time lows.

•Top 0.00001% wealth = 12% of GDP (4× Gilded Age), hold 12% of U.S. output.

•Top 0.1% own $13.7T in stock—> more than the bottom 90%

•Billionaire wealth +40% in 2 yrs.

•First trillionaire + thousands of new millionaires as workers fear A.I. job loss.

•Cost of living surges: insurance, gas, cars, utilities, debt service, education, and core essentials all re‑accelerating.

https://x.com/mohossain/status/2065894402573074760?s=46

𝐋𝐢𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐑𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐁𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐤𝐬 𝐚𝐬 𝐀𝐈 𝐒𝐡𝐨𝐜𝐤 𝐂𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐬 𝐖𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐙𝐈𝐑𝐏 𝐕𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠

PE vibes deep in the freeze zone.

Boom‑era assets stuck, bid‑ask canyon‑wide, LPs pounding the table for liquidity.

Evergreen funds ≠ ATMs; retail capital = skittish + redemption‑prone.

DPI in freefall (’22: 0.6% vs ’14: 161%).

Fundraising rolling over since ’23,

mega funds taking the biggest hit.

Software goes from gravy train to battleground: half see AI cliff‑risk, half swear SaaS is mission‑critical + adaptable.

Private credit swelled to $1.8T; defaults set to drift higher.

Core issue: PE promised returns it can’t mark‑to‑market forever.

The bill is arriving… and everyone’s praying for a Fed‑engineered soft landing like cash‑poor, wealth‑rich homeowners.

More via BBG

⬇️ #Privateequity #fund #investor $

𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞’𝐬 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐞𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠, 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐛𝐚𝐧𝐤𝐫𝐮𝐩𝐭𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐤 𝐢𝐬 𝐚𝐬𝐲𝐦𝐦𝐞𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐜. 𝐀 𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐛𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐄𝐔–𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞 𝐰𝐚𝐫 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐡𝐲𝐩𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥, 𝐢𝐭’𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐛𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞.

Europe’s import shock from China is now system‑level… 𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐮𝐩 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐧𝐭, 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐆𝐞𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐲, 𝐈𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐲, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐂𝐄𝐄 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐩𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐬‑𝐩𝐞𝐫‑𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐫 𝐣𝐮𝐦𝐩𝐬.

𝐄𝐔 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐭 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚 𝐰𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧 𝐚𝐬 𝐆𝐞𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐲’𝐬 𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐬 𝐟𝐞𝐥𝐥, 𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐝𝐞𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞, 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐜𝐲𝐜𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐧𝐨𝐢𝐬𝐞.

OECD subsidy data shows China’s industrial support is broad, opaque, and scale‑tilted, overwhelming Europe’s firm‑level tools.

Brussels is now layering anti‑subsidy, anti‑dumping, “overcapacity” debates, and a proto‑Section 301 into a defensive perimeter.

More via

𝐖𝐞𝐥𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐢𝐠𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐑𝐞𝐝‑𝐋𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐭: 𝐏𝐚𝐫𝐥𝐚𝐲𝐬, 𝐏𝐮𝐬𝐡 𝐀𝐥𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐬, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐏𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐬.

Sports betting is becoming a macro signal, not a niche sector story.

• 41 jurisdictions legalized; state tax intake up ~4× since 2021, a fiscal tailwind masking rising social costs.

• Parlays >30% of handle in some states, the industry’s highest‑margin, highest‑loss product.

• Operators spend >$3B/yr on ads while Moody’s assigns S‑4 social‑risk scores across major platforms.

• As in the UK, late‑cycle growth + social externalities = regulatory beta rising?

And somewhere in the background, NGO bosses are sketching new “harm‑reduction angles,” lobbyists are delighted to bulk up the S&L budget, and a philanthropic rash from the AI windfall suddenly makes everyone a social‑impact visionary.

https://x.com/mohossain/status/1689697567175499776?s=46 ht:Moodys

𝐋𝐢𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐑𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐁𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐤𝐬 𝐚𝐬 𝐀𝐈 𝐒𝐡𝐨𝐜𝐤 𝐂𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐬 𝐖𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐙𝐈𝐑𝐏 𝐕𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠

PE vibes deep in the freeze zone.

Boom‑era assets stuck, bid‑ask canyon‑wide, LPs pounding the table for liquidity.

Evergreen funds ≠ ATMs; retail capital = skittish + redemption‑prone.

DPI in freefall (’22: 0.6% vs ’14: 161%).

Fundraising rolling over since ’23,

mega funds taking the biggest hit.

Software goes from gravy train to battleground: half see AI cliff‑risk, half swear SaaS is mission‑critical + adaptable.

Private credit swelled to $1.8T; defaults set to drift higher.

Core issue: PE promised returns it can’t mark‑to‑market forever.

The bill is arriving… and everyone’s praying for a Fed‑engineered soft landing like cash‑poor, wealth‑rich homeowners.

More via BBG

⬇️ #Privateequity #fund #investor $

𝐈𝐬 𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐰𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐠, 𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐧𝐞𝐠𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥 𝐰𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐬, 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝‑𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐥𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞

A.I. = Catch‑22: if it wins, jobs go; if it busts, 401(k)s go.

•Real wages negative.

•Labor share at all‑time lows.

•Top 0.00001% wealth = 12% of GDP (4× Gilded Age), hold 12% of U.S. output.

•Top 0.1% own $13.7T in stock—> more than the bottom 90%

•Billionaire wealth +40% in 2 yrs.

•First trillionaire + thousands of new millionaires as workers fear A.I. job loss.

•Cost of living surges: insurance, gas, cars, utilities, debt service, education, and core essentials all re‑accelerating.

https://x.com/mohossain/status/2065894402573074760?s=46

Is Oil’s Calm a Mirage?

Oil <$100 because the 3 shock‑absorbers still hold: China’s –3mb/d import hole — Beijing’s planners spinning in circles with weak industry, crushed margins, refinery cuts to stay alive, inventory draws, FX stress, and limp consumer fuel demand; US jawboning draining weekend risk; and Gulf flows clawing back from ~1mb/d → 2.5mb/d via “dark” India‑bound transits + pipelines. But OECD stocks sliding toward 2.3bn bbl and Cushing flirting with critical lows = the real tail risk. Physical models flash $150–$160 once inventories breach the floor.

📰More via WSJ

https://x.com/wsj/status/2065814893089919240?s=46

𝐀𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐄𝐱𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐬𝐦: 𝐕𝐨𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐁𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐭 𝐈𝐭. 𝐈𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐒𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐈𝐭. 𝐒𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐞 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐭𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐈𝐭.

🇺🇸𝑈𝑆 𝑚𝑎𝑐𝑟𝑜 𝑑𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑎 250‑𝑦𝑟 𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑒 + 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒.

• Since 1871, S&P drawdowns avg ‑14%, with shocks from 1907 → GFC → COVID, yet long‑run compounding persists.

• US share of global mkt cap climbed from 8% (Civil War) to ~47% today, despite Depression + WWII resets.

• US converts innovation inputs into outputs more efficiently than any large economy, top of the WIPO ROI curve.

• US GDP share surged to ~40% in WWII, still >25% today despite Asia’s rise.

Volatility is the entry fee; dominance is the payoff.

ht:baml #growth #investments #productivity @ennovance

𝐔𝐒 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬: 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐥𝐢𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐲, 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐯𝐢𝐭𝐲, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐫𝐡𝐲𝐦𝐞.

🇺🇸US dominance in global markets is structural, not cyclical: Scale + liquidity + profitability = the long arc of US outperformance.

NYSE liquidity runs $71B/day, out‑trading Tokyo 1.7×, Hong Kong 2.7×, London 10×.

150 years of equity data show the US compounding at 9.9%, outpacing every major market in recorded history.

EPS growth since 2003: US 21.2% CAGR vs World 14.2%.

Operating margins: US 16%, consistently above DM peers (World 14.7%, Europe 12.6%, Japan 9.5%).

#investments #productivity #Growth

@ennovance

𝐔𝐒 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬: 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐥𝐢𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐲, 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐯𝐢𝐭𝐲, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐫𝐡𝐲𝐦𝐞.

🇺🇸US dominance in global markets is structural, not cyclical: Scale + liquidity + profitability = the long arc of US outperformance.

NYSE liquidity runs $71B/day, out‑trading Tokyo 1.7×, Hong Kong 2.7×, London 10×.

150 years of equity data show the US compounding at 9.9%, outpacing every major market in recorded history.

EPS growth since 2003: US 21.2% CAGR vs World 14.2%.

Operating margins: US 16%, consistently above DM peers (World 14.7%, Europe 12.6%, Japan 9.5%).

#investments #productivity #Growth

@ennovance