Unintended AI Consequences #3: Gutting the Cognitive Class
In the 80s and 90s, there was a pretty clear upgrade path if you were āone of the bright onesā.
You did well at school, maybe went to uni, learned to string a sentence together or solve a spreadsheet, and you were basically set. Not rich, but upwardly mobile. A professional. The sort of person who could get a mortgage, buy a Golf GTI, and tell their kids, āWork hard and youāll do better than us.ā
The assumption was simple: If you were smart and you could work with ideas instead of a shovel, the economy would look after you.
That was the deal. Especially in places like London. Every new wave of ābright young thingsā ā grads, junior consultants, copywriters, analysts, planners ā pitched up in the city, sold their brains, and climbed.
Fast-forward to now, and that deal is quietly collapsing.
The same ācognitive classā thatās done well out of the last 50 years ā traditional middle-class knowledge workers ā are suddenly standing on thinner ice. Wages are flat, careers are choppy, everything looks like a gig, and a lot of that precious cognitive work is being gobbled up by machines that just donāt get tired.
And thatās one of AIās nastier, unintended consequences:
Itās not just automating low-level jobs. Itās hollowing out the rungs of the cognitive ladder that used to make the middle class feel safe.
Who are we talking about?
When I say ācognitive classā, I mean:
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā The grads who went into media, marketing, consulting, law, finance, comms, design, policy.
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā The office-based professions that live on PowerPoints, Google Docs, Slack channels, and Zoom.
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā The ābright young thingsā who were always told they were destined for āgood jobsā.
In other words: the people whose main asset is their ability to:
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā process information,
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā write and speak clearly,
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā analyse,
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā plan,
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā persuade.
For the last few decades, this has been a great place to be. The world shifted from heavy industry to services, from factories to offices, from brawn to brains. If you could think, present, and bullshit in a convincing way, you were golden.
There was even a kind of moral story attached to it: āWe deserve this. We studied. We worked late. We learned Excel. Weāre the ones making the hard decisions.ā
Then along comes AI and, with a straight face, basically says:
āThat thing you get paid Ā£250 a day for? I can do the first 90% in about four seconds.ā
Awkward.
The invisible bargain thatās breaking
For my generation ā Thatcher kids who got out ā the cognitive bargain went like this:
1. You invest heavily in education. Time, money, emotionally. Maybe you take on big debt.
2. You get access to higher-paying, more secure jobs. They might be dull, but theyāre safe-ish. Career ladders, pensions, stability.
3. You convert that into a middle-class life. House, kids, holidays somewhere sunny, maybe a German car on the drive.
Except, now AI comes in at Stage 2 (or maybe earlier) and quietly wrecks the economics.
Because if youāre a company looking at your P&L, the logic is brutal:
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Why hire 5 junior analysts when 1 mid-level with AI tools can do similar output?
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Why pay copywriters, designers, planners full-time when you can externalise risk to a gig pool and plug them into AI?
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Why invest in grad programmes when you can wait and buy mid-levels later ā after the market has chewed them up a bit?
The result isnāt some sudden robot takeover. Itās something slower, nastier, and harder to protest:
The early rungs on the professional ladder get thinner, more precarious, and worse paid ā just as the price of entry (degrees, debt, living costs) has gone up.
Gutting from the middle, not just the bottom
We had this comforting idea that technology automates the boring low-end work and humans just āmove up the value chainā.
The problem with AI is that a lot of āvalue chainā work is⦠typing, researching, and shuffling information around. Exactly the stuff junior and mid-level knowledge workers do all day. And AI is also racing up the value chain.
Watch whatās happening in real time:
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā In marketing and media
The Ā£35k copywriter, social manager, or junior planner now competes with tools that can spit out 20 variants in minutes - all sense-checked and with the correct tone of voice. You still need humans ā but fewer, and more senior.
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā In consulting and strategy
Decks that used to take a week of analyst graft can be templated and partially generated. Fewer spreadsheet monkeys, more āpartnerā types who sell and frame the work.
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā In design and content production
AI tools are churning out first passes for logos, layouts, video edits, transcriptions. The grunt work that trained juniors is being eaten from underneath.
What does that do?
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā It compresses the middle ā junior and mid roles ā and inflates the extremes: a handful of high-paid stars at the top, and a sprawling mass of freelancers, contractors, and gig workers at the bottom.
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā It turns ālearning yearsā into āfighting for scrapsā years. The grind that taught you the craft becomes a scramble to keep your day rate above your rent.
Flat wages, fake freedom, and the gig illusion
Outwardly, this is sold as liberation:
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā āYouāre a consultant now, not an employee.ā
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā āPortfolio career.ā
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā āBe your own boss!ā
In reality:
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Youāre juggling three clients, two overdrafts, and one landlord.
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā You have no benefits, no sick pay, no pension, and an algorithm somewhere deciding whether you get the next job.
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Youāre in āthe creative industriesā but you canāt afford a flat anywhere near the city that houses them.
AI amplifies this because it:
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Commoditises a lot of cognitive work (thereās always someone whoāll do it cheaper, faster, or semi-automated).
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Obscures the human contribution (clients see the output, not the juggling behind it).
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Erodes pricing power (if your client thinks āa bot could do thisā, your negotiating position is already weaker).
Weāve turned a whole swathe of previously decent jobs into a kind of white-collar zero-hours economy. Same laptop. Same coffee shop. Same āI work in digitalā. Very different level of security.
Debt on the way in, insecurity on the way out
Hereās the cruel bit.
Weāve told an entire generation:
āBorrow tens of thousands for a degree, move to an expensive city, grind hard in your 20s ā and itāll pay off long-term.ā
That made sense when:
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā There were stable jobs at the end of it.
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Wage growth roughly tracked experience and inflation.
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā You were actually accumulating some kind of social and financial capital.
Now:
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Degrees are more expensive.
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Rents in London (and other hubs) are insane.
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā And the jobs at the end are less secure and more easily automated.
So you get:
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā A big cognitive class with fragile finances.
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā People delaying kids, homes, and long-term commitments because their work lives feel like a treadmill on ice.
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā A simmering sense of āI did everything right ā why do I still feel shafted?ā
If you want a breeding ground for resentment and political volatility, thatās it. Not the very poorest ā theyāve always been shafted. The people just above them, who were told they were joining the winnersā club, only to find the barās been moved.
The emotional gutting: status anxiety at scale
The economic hit is one thing. The psychological hit is worse.
For the cognitive class, work isnāt just money. Itās identity.
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā āIām a strategist.ā
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā āIām a lawyer.ā
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā āIām a journalist.ā
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā āIām a designer.ā
If a machine can do a large chunk of what you do ā or at least what you thought made you special ā itās not just your income on the line. Itās your story about yourself.
You see this already:
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā People loudly proclaiming AI is ājust a toyā or āonly good for basic stuffā while clearly being rattled.
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Professionals more invested in defending the purity of their craft than in evolving it.
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā A rising hum of anxiety: āWhat if my job is just pattern-matching with a nicer haircut?ā
Thatās what āgutting the cognitive classā really looks like:
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Less like robots marching in, more like a slow, steady hollowing out of confidence, status, and security.
Is there any way this doesnāt end in a clusterfuck?
Iām not a doomer by default ā Iām temperamentally optimistic. But optimism isnāt pretending the hit isnāt real. Itās asking: what can we do with this mess?
A few hard truths and possibilities:
1. The old deal is not coming back
The āstudy hard, get a degree, walk into a stable middle-class jobā bargain is gone. That doesnāt mean all is lost; it means we have to stop lying about it.
Parents, schools, universities, governments ā theyāre still selling a story that belonged to the 1990s.
AI is just accelerating us all away.
2. The value of how you think goes up as the value of what you produce goes down As AI eats more of the production work, the premium shifts to:
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Framing problems.
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Asking better questions.
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Judgement, taste, ethics.
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Building trust and relationships.
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Being the person people want to work with, not just the person who can operate the tools.
The cognitive class will survive ā but not by clinging to the idea that their worth lies in being better at manual analysis, drafting, or slide-making than a machine.
3. Ownership and leverage matter more than degrees
If youāre selling hours in a marketplace where AI can undercut you, youāll get squeezed, nay, screwed.
If you:
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā own the relationship with the client,
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā own the product,
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā own the distribution,
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā or own the IP
ā¦youāre in a different game.
One of AIās unintended positive consequences is that more people could build and own things: products, mini-agencies, small but global businesses ā if they stop thinking like employees and start thinking like small-scale capitalists.
Easier said than done, but still true.
4. We will need policy, not just hustle culture
Iām all for personal responsibility and seizing opportunity, but letās not pretend the market will gracefully handle this on its own.
If we donāt want an angry, disillusioned cognitive class drifting into nihilism, weāre going to need:
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Smarter safety nets.
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Rethinking education (shorter, cheaper, more modular, more honest).
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Tax and regulatory frameworks that donāt just shovel more chips to the already loaded.
So where does that leave the ābright young thingsā?
If I were 19 today, turning up in London with a laptop and some brains, Iād be looking at AI and thinking two things at once:
1. āShit, this could absolutely undercut me.ā
2. āAlso, this might be the only way I get out ahead.ā
The cognitive class is being squeezed, yes. But that same squeeze is creating weird, messy, new spaces where the brave and slightly unhinged can build interesting lives:
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Tiny teams with massive leverage.
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Niche experts amplified by AI, not replaced by it.
Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā People using AI as an exoskeleton for their judgement, not as a crutch for lazy thinking.
The risk is real. The gutting is already underway.
But the storyās not finished. AI is hollowing out the old, comfy version of the cognitive class ā the one that believed a degree and a job title was a lifetime safety blanket.
The unintended consequence is a shake-up that will hurt a lot of people and throw up new shapes of success that look nothing like the 9ā5 office ladder. Thankfully.
The real divide in the next decade wonāt be āeducated vs uneducatedā. Itāll be:
Those who adapt to being a human with AI vs those who cling to a world where their brain was the only machine in the room.










