Coup or Not Coup

Emergency talks were underway on Thursday to determine the future of Lesotho’s fragile coalition government, amid suggestions of a possible coup and fears the country may be plunged back into political violence.

From the article, it sounds like there are at least two possible paths to an unconstitutional change in government right now: 1) an autogolpe of sorts by the sitting prime minister, who suspended parliament to dodge a vote of no confidence; and 2) a standard-issue military coup. Regarding the latter, the story also notes that

"The South African government has further noted with grave concern the unusual movements of the Lesotho Defence Force Units in the capital, Maseru."

Wow, this one is a gold mine:

“Please avoid using the word coup because the context of what happened in Thailand is completely different,” Colonel Werachon Sukondhapatipak, the junta spokesman, said last night at the Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand. “The only thing that happened in Thailand is the change of the administration of this country.”

And:

After ousting the elected government on May 22, the army suspended the constitution and used its powers under martial law to ban political activities, enforce a curfew and put soldiers in television stations. It ordered more than 300 people to report in, including politicians, protesters, journalists and academics. Those who report are held in army camps for as long as a week, while those who don’t become fugitives whose assets can be frozen and face two years in jail if caught.

“I don’t like the word detention,” Werachon said last night. People are asked if they need anything “apart from the air condition, apart from the good food, apart from the activities that we provide, apart from all kinds of facilities that make you feel time passing by so quick and apart from the entertainment that we provide? This is detention?”

Instead of summoned, Werachon uses the word “invited,” and rather than detained uses “remain in army accommodation.” “We just want to provide them a cooling off period in order for them to think over the situation and we don’t want them to have any other influences from outside,” he said.

And:

“This is not the democracy that we want,” Werachon said. “We want something sustainable. That is why I am saying that we are not destroying democracy, we strengthen democracy.”

Prayuth says he staged the kingdom’s 12th coup since 1932 to “return happiness to the Thai people.”

The violence gripping the streets of Libya’s two major cities may be the early stages of a military coup attempt echoing events in Egypt last summer, or it may be simply an escalation of feuding between rival militias that have run the show since the overthrow of dictator Col. Muammar Gaddafi.

And:

Forces loyal to retired Libyan Gen. Khalifa Haftar on Sunday stormed Libya’s parliament, declared it dissolved and then clashed with militias backing the fragile Islamist-led central government, just days after Haftar launched an offensive in the eastern port city of Benghazi. On Monday the commander of the Libyan army’s special forces announced he had allied with Haftar, who claims his Libyan National Army is fighting to stamp out extremism and Al-Qaeda-inspired militias in Libya “by the people’s choice.” An air force base in the city of Tobruk followed suit.

And:

The ouster of Gaddafi in a NATO-backed uprising left the country without strong central security forces, and its newly democratic government — dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood–aligned Justice and Construction Party — is widely viewed as weak and corrupt. Much of the country is ruled by the writ of militias, some of them aligned with the government and others opposed.

Haftar and his allied militias back the more nationalist political opposition, which accuses the Brotherhood of taking over Libya’s nascent democratic institutions and allowing extremism to infiltrate the country. Paralyzed by the standoff between Islamist and anti-Islamist factions, parliament has failed to deliver on the promise of democracy.

And finally:

Analysts say it would be premature to call Haftar’s uprising a full-fledged coup. 

When did the distinction between a rebellion and a coup disappear? When forces outside the government try to seize power, we call it a rebellion. When forces inside the government try to seize power, we call it a coup. Despite its name, Gen. Haftar's Libyan National Army is not part of the state's security forces, so this seems to be a rebellion, not a coup attempt.

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's army chief summoned leaders of rival political groups and parties, Election Commission members and senators to a meeting on Wednesday, a day after he declared martial law.

<snip>

Paul Chambers, a professor and military analyst at Thailand's Chiang Mai University, said Thailand's martial law act of 1914 provides the army with sweeping powers, effectively giving the army chief control of the kingdom without the assent of the prime minister.

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's army declared martial law nationwide on Tuesday to restore order after six months of street protests that have left the country without a proper functioning government, but insisted the surprise intervention was not a military coup.

While troops patrolled parts of Bangkok and army spokesmen took to the airwaves, the caretaker government led by supporters of self-exiled former premier Thaksin Shinawatra said it was still running the country.

Also:

Human Rights Watch called Tuesday's army action a "de facto coup" while a political analyst said it was a "phantom coup".

"There was no consultation with the government and I think the military will slowly expand its powers and test the waters," said Kan Yuenyong at the Siam Intelligence Unit think-tank.

And:

The leader of Thaksin's pro-government "red shirt" loyalists, who are rallying in Bangkok's western outskirts, appealed for calm but warned of trouble if the government was ousted.

TRIPOLI (Reuters) - A Libyan military commander on Friday called for the interim parliament to be suspended and a presidential committee to be formed to govern until new elections.

Is a "call" a coup attempt? I think it might be, when it comes from an insider with access to force to back that call. The last bit's the rub here, though. As long as the guys with guns aren't doing anything menacing in response to this declaration, this looks more like a publicly announced coup plot than an actual coup attempt to me. Basically, he's trying to recruit his putschists in the open---and apparently failing, at least so far.

Anyway, here's a bit more from the story:

"The national command of the Libyan army is declaring a movement for the new road map," Haftar said in a statement in which he said the armed forces were calling for Libya to be "rescued" from its upheaval.

"We will hold meetings with different parties and groups regarding implementing this road map," he said.

A spokesman for the General National Congress (GNC) parliament dismissed the statement.

"He doesn't represent the army," Omar Humaidan said. "He is not even in Tripoli, the capital is secure."

Libya's army barely exists with most of its soldiers still in training or drawn from the ranks of former rebels who are often more loyal to their own regions, their commanders or their tribes than a national force.

Most of the regions where new military leaders have been appointed are on the coast, where populations tend to be denser than the vast interior of the world's fourth largest island.

"Rajoelina is trying to gain control of coastal areas in the second round [of the presidential election]," said Lydie Boka of French risk group StrategiCo.

And...

Prime Minister Omer Beriziky told reporters that while regional appointments were normally political, "neutral personalities" were needed this close to the election.

The army's neutrality is questioned, however. The army chief now was a middle-ranking officer who led the dissident troops that swung behind Rajoelina's street protests calling for the departure of Ravalomanana in early 2009.

The bodies of four soldiers were discovered earlier this month near the capital and several others, including a Colonel, remain unaccounted for. These apparent extrajudicial executions and disappearances raise fears that soldiers loyal to General Amadou Haya Sanogo, who staged a coup in March 2012, are purging their ranks to quell dissent.

On October 10, 2013 gunmen seized Libya’s Prime Minister Ali Zeidan from a Tripoli hotel before releasing him hours later. Zeidan appeared on state television hours later and called the abduction an attempted coup in which his captors had tried to force him to resign. Ten days later Abdelmonem Essid, the head of an interior ministry anti-crime unit, told journalists “it was me who arrested Ali Zeidan, and I’m proud of it.” The remarks came during a news conference initiated by two Islamist members of the General National Congress, Mohammed al-Kilani and Mustafa al-Triki, to deny their involvement in the abduction plot.

Coup-proofing in action. Google Translate version of first graf:

Mali's Minister of Defense, Soumeylou Boubèye Maiga announced that the army took control of the camp Kati, near the capital. This military base was, so far, the headquarters of the former rebel leaders of the coup of March 2012. All weapons were seized and a dozen former officials of the junta were arrested.