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0:142025 initiative geran what was the ma in

0:18China 2025 initiative and why did it

0:22create such a strong reaction from

0:24China's trading

0:25partners made in China 25 was an

0:28initiative launched in 2015

0:30the objective was to seek Global

0:33Leadership in 10 strategic sectors it

0:36builds in a tradition of industrial

0:37policies and plans including five-year

0:39plans in China but unlike the other ones

0:41which are often about catching up or

0:43things like infrastructure Mega projects

0:45this is about dominating sectors that in

0:48many cases advanced economies were

0:49already good at it's also part of a a

0:52broader push for so-called indigenous

0:55Innovation so having Chinese firms that

0:57own the technology and make the

0:58manufactured goods related to those

1:00Technologies how did they do this mostly

1:02with industrial policy like state-owned

1:04investment funds state credit from Banks

1:07subsidies procurement Etc it provoked

1:09antibodies in the US and elsewhere

1:11because it was sort of a loud slogan for

1:13them to latch on to and over time

1:16particularly in the Trump Administration

1:18it became a bit of a rallying cry for

1:20things that were uh troubling to the

1:22West about Chinese industrial

1:25policy and what effects have us tariffs

1:28and Export controls had on China's

1:30economy and how has Beijing responded so

1:34if we separate those two the the tariffs

1:36had more of a macro effect because they

1:38covered more sectors they were quite

1:39broad uh launched under the Trump

1:41Administration and sustained under the

1:43Biden Administration ultimately it

1:45caused trade diversion and some uh

1:47basically China exporting more to

1:49Southeast Asia and elsewhere but the US

1:51is still importing a lot from China the

1:53bigger deal particularly on the

1:54technology side is export controls and

1:56there I would highlight two events the

1:58first was in 2019 when the US added

2:00Huawei to the US Commerce Department's

2:02entity lists which signal that the US

2:04was essentially trying to stop or maybe

2:06even kill what was arguably China's best

2:08International technology company the

2:10second was in 2022 when the Biden

2:13Administration announced export controls

2:15on Advanced semiconductors today

2:17semiconductors are really the locus of a

2:19lot of the competition it's what the US

2:21is ultimately most worried about and

2:22barpa semiconductors lead to so many

2:24things like China's ability to advance

2:26an artificial intelligence China's

2:28response on the trade side was to

2:30retaliate somewhat modestly compared to

2:32what the US was doing but on the export

2:34control side they didn't really have any

2:35way to symmetrically retaliate so

2:37instead it was really just to expedite

2:40the plans that were underway so in a way

2:42the m in ch 25 initiative is a vestage

2:44of 2015 when things were actually less

2:47tense geopolitically but in recent years

2:50under XI Jin ping the priority has been

2:51self-reliance and Expediting those

2:53efforts and Francis within the 10

2:56strategic sectors of the made in China

2:59202 25 initiative which ones does China

3:02still lag behind and still trying to

3:04catch up and which sectors has China

3:07already achieve Global Leadership uh BR

3:10intelligence identified 13 key

3:13Technologies spreading across those 10

3:15strategic sectors um in fact China has

3:19uh made progress in seven of those 13

3:22Technologies over the past nine years

3:25and um they have so far achieved the

3:28Global Leadership in five of those

3:30Technologies in another seven

3:33Technologies they have been staying

3:34competitive with the global pce and they

3:36are only lagging behind one of them um

3:39for the technologies that they have

3:42leadership on that includes electric

3:44vehicles and levium batteries uh solar

3:48panels uh unarmed AAL uh vehicles uh

3:52grain and highspeed well uh but for

3:55those uh uh China is lagging behind

3:58obviously it will be commercial a craft

4:00and some of the semiconductor sub

4:02segments including the design and

4:05Equipment Francis what Catalyst should

4:08investors watch out for and do you see

4:10any key ones that could derail or set

4:14China's path through

4:162030 um obviously uh some of those

4:20factors will be uh coming from uh uh you

4:23know the external environment such as

4:25the US presidential election to be held

4:27on the 5th of November uh followed by

4:30the fomc meeting by the Federal Reserve

4:33setting the interest rate prospects in

4:362025 uh which is uh affecting the

4:39capacity of Chinese Central Bank uh to

4:43adopt their easing policy and uh to fix

4:45uh China's economy and towards the end

4:48of the year in December uh the country

4:50itself would have its Central economic

4:53uh World Conference uh which set

4:55priorities uh uh in 2025 and and that

4:59may include some of uh the uh new

5:02policies uh for the technological

5:04development and lastly uh on the 20th of

5:07January we will have a new host in the

5:09white house after the uh new the US

5:12Presidential Inauguration uh more uh

5:15tariffs and more policy changes towards

5:17China may be

5:19materialized Gerard and Francis thanks

5:21for your insights