In Defense of Goldman Sachs
Today, Nathaniel Popper of Dealbook described Goldman Sachâs social impact bond deal with a pre-k program in Utah and questioned its success metrics (fair), while subtly implying self-interested foul play by Goldman (unfair). Iâm afraid that the former issue makes the latter seem all too likely and people will conclude social impact investing is another way private investment corrupts public education. They shouldnât.
For full disclosure, Iâve worked for Goldman and yes, like every adult and company Iâve ever met, Goldman engages in self-interested activities that make them money. With regards to social impact investing, we should be okay with that. In the end, itâs good for kids.
Letâs first be very clear about what exactly Social Impact Investing (also known as Pay for Success) is in the context of this program (something Dealbook was not). Letâs start with the basics:
PreK isnât free. And money to pay for it isnât unlimited.
Someone has to pay for PreK. In 2014, Utah passed legislation to spend more on PreK programs in the state, but not enough to grant free universal PreK in the state (that starts in kindergarten). State money allocated for PreK is not unlimited; itâs a finite number (and itâs a low one in this case... $5 million), so only those programs deemed best by the state can receive money. This may be a very obvious point, but itâs very important. We often talk of government spending in education as if the sky is the limit. Itâs not.
Given the limited funds, not all programs can be funded with government money.
If the government doesnât pay, who can? Non-profits of course! Well, another bummer... Non-profits donât have unlimited money either. Non-profits, just like the government, can pick which programs get funded and which do not. Sometimes that means that good programs cannot get funded due to lack of government and non-profit funds.
There is an alternative to government and non-profit funding: debt.
Oftentimes when states or districts donât have the cash upfront to fund their budgets, they issue bonds. They can borrow at relatively low rates because generally, the government is pretty good at paying back its money and so thereâs little risk. As an investor in government bonds, youâre okay with a relatively low rate of return on your money because thereâs little risk involved.
Typically in education, bonds are issued for construction costs rather than programming costs. At some point, a government taps out of the debt it can prudently issue. Again, we have to think about the investors. No one wants to be the 100th in line to receive his interest back and risk not getting it. When the debt is tied to construction, however, the investor has a way of mitigating that risk: the buildings are collateral. The government doesnât pay back the investor with interest? Heâll own some of their building(s) and have a chance to make his money back by selling it.
With educational programming, mitigating risk by taking collateral is a little more complicated. The government didnât pay back the debt issued for that PreK program? The investor canât own and sell kidsâ future earning streams and he doesnât want hundreds of used Elmo toys. Thereâs little way to mitigate risk, and so the best way is to just avoid investing!
No taxes, no bonds, no problem: enter social impact investing
In the case where all these alternatives have been exhausted, social impact bonds create an alternative funding stream. It is very important to understand that these bonds are a last resort. If a state or district can get taxpayer money or donations for free and never have to pay them back, theyâd do that. If a state or district can issue cheap bonds that investors are confident theyâll be able to pay back (or have collateral in case they donât), theyâd do that. Without social impact bonds, exhausting the options of taxes, bonds and philanthropy would be the end of the road. Sorry, PreK kids, your taxpayers and your bond investors do not want to help you.
But social impact bond investors do.
Social impact bond investors are not simply evaluating risk and return. They add a third parameter: social impact. Generally, investors are willing to accept more risk in their investment if the monetary return is higher. If the monetary risk is held constant, social impact bond investors are willing to accept more risk if the potential social impact is higher. For example, a high risk investment that returns 5% in interest may be passed up by many investors that think they can get more return for that level of risk elsewhere. But a high risk investment that returns 5% in interest but has the chance to lift hundreds of kids out of poverty may be worth it for a certain set of investors that want to see their money being used for good (but donât want to just give it away).
[Itâs important to note that social impact investors arenât just âsort of goodâ people, because they want to do good but also make money, and the âreally goodâ people simply give their money away. Again, money doesnât grow on trees, so to the extent that the âsort of goodâ people can make money on their investments and reinvest that money again and again creating more and more positive social impact, they could be doing more good than the âreally goodâ people.]
Given this set of âsort of goodâ people and their investment proclivities, Goldman Sachs raised $140 million from them and started looking for investments that would both return money and create social impact with which theyâd be satisfied. One such investment was the Utah High-Quality Preschool Program. The terms:
Initial Loan: Goldmanâs fund loans $4.6 million to the program and J.B. Pritzker loans $2.4 million.
Use of Funds: This funding pays to provide free PreK to up to 3,700 low-income students.
How âSocial Impactâ is defined: By enrolling in this PreK program, a student is set up for success in Kindergarten and beyond. Specifically, a child who would typically enter Kindergarten as a Special Education student, no longer needs Special Education services. This is positive for the student and society.
How âSocial Impactâ is measured: Students take a diagnostic test before they start the program. The test, known as P.P.V.T., is used by the district to assess whether the student is high-risk for special education - a score below 70 labels them as such. If a student scores below 70 before the program, implying that they will probably enroll in Special Education come Kindergarten, but ends up doing so well in the PreK program that he does not need Special Education services in Kindergarten, the PreK program is successful for that student. (The NYTimes article is mainly about how bad this measure is. I donât necessarily disagree and Iâll get back to this later).
How Repayment works: If a program truly reduces the number of students needing Special Education services, it is saving a district money: in this case, about $2,600 per kid per year. The PreK program is being funded by Goldman at less than $2,000 per kid per year. If the program costing $2,000 a year for two years saves a district $2,600 per year for 10 years, why wouldnât the state or district pay for it themselves? It would literally pay for itself. Well, they donât fund it themselves because theyâre not sure it does actually save them money and theyâre not willing to risk it or they simply donât have the money now, and they cannot convince taxpayers or bond investors or donors to give them the money now.
If, however, there is proof that the program worked, the state or district itself (or other donors excited to throw money at successful programs after the fact) might be glad to retroactively fund it -- so they make a deal to repay the debt in the case that the program is successful.
Terms of Repayment: For every child that scores below 70 on the P.P.V.T. and labeled at-risk for Special Education, but does not need Special Education services in K-12, Goldman receives repayment. Over the next 12 years, Goldman receives 95% of the cost savings per child ($2,470 according to the Salt Lake Tribune) per year from kindergarten through sixth grade, plus 5% interest. After that, Goldman receives 40% of the cost savings per child until the debt is repaid.
In the first cohort of students, 110 were identified as high-risk for Special Education, but 109 students did not need Special Education services by kindergarten. Therefore, Goldman received 109 times $2,470, or about $260,000 this year.
But this payment isnât profit Goldman receives. Itâs simply the repayment of the debt. So when Popper says in the first sentences of the article that âthe investment also resulted in a $260,000 payout for the Wall Street firm,â it is akin to saying my friend borrowed 5 bucks from me, I paid her back two and my friend got a two dollar âpayout.â Thatâs a bit misleading.
The most Goldman will make off this investment is their 5% in interest. When I first read the article, I had assumed that if more students "avoided special educationâ according to test results, Goldman would somehow get paid more. Thatâs not the case. Goldman simply gets repaid sooner. By my calculations, if they keep receiving the same $260,000 principal payment per year per cohort, theyâll have to wait 8 years to receive their principal back. If results are less than stellar, they might have to wait 20 years. If results are completely horrible, Goldman loses its entire investment. Thatâs not exactly a great deal for Goldman.
Now, back to the contested issue of success metrics. Popper does a fine job of explaining all the ways the P.P.V.T. is not a great test. The mere fact that the test implies 99% of kids no longer need special education discredits it as an accurate measure of student achievement. But then again, what one number is an accurate measure.
If the world were a perfect place with all parties having perfect judgment and perfect intentions, the state could see the results of the program and deem it âworth our moneyâ or ânot worth our money.â But itâs not, and so social impact bonds have to use flawed metrics as a proxy for judgment. But this flawed metric is what the state agreed to. Like it or not, taxpayers let the state make all sorts of judgments about which social programs are worth our money with less than perfect metrics, or no metrics at all.Â
At least with social impact bonds, if the program is an unmitigated failure, it doesnât get funded at all. In the status quo of government social program funding, mitigated failures get funded all the time as long as government bureaucrat(s) believed it in. Governments (and thus taxpayers) have no way to get most money we spend on social programs back. With social impact investing, taxpayers at least have a chance to refuse to repay investments in programs that were failures.
Unequivocally, we should seek better metrics to judge success. But imperfections in metrics should not mean we should stick with the status quo. The conclusion shouldnât be âitâs hard to structure social impact bonds, because itâs hard to determine measures of success in social programsâ or âwe should only do social impact investing when the measures of success are perfect.â If we applied that logic to status quo government spending, weâd be complaining about all government spending on all social programs (and the NYTimes is most certainly not doing that).Â
Social impact investing should not be evaluated on its own merits, but rather as an alternative to the status quo. Given our status quo in education funding, itâs a pretty good alternative.
And I donât mean itâs a good alternative, because it makes Goldman Sachs money. This is not a slam dunk for Goldman. I can promise you no one at Goldman was thinking of ways to increase the firmâs bottom line and came up with social impact investing. Goldman is creating a market that would otherwise not exist - risky investments in PreK programs whose results cannot be seen until years later.Â
We moan and whine all the time about how nothing innovative happens in education, and this is a big reason why: government bureaucrats generally donât want to take risks investing in new programs that could be super successful, or could be total flops that prevent them from getting re-elected.
Social impact investors, on the other hand, donât mind risking their money to create innovation and positive social change.Â
Thatâs a needed alternative for Americaâs schoolchildren.