Bros Before Prose

Some key takeaways from the derby: as I watched it (at a Knights of Columbus watch party), I commented on the slow early fractions of the race. Most people don’t pay attention to those little numbers that pop up in the corner during the race, but I do. They were not running that fast early. This means true closers really didn’t have a chance in the race because the leaders would not tire. It also helps that a lot of the lead horses were actually talented and not just rabbits. The derby taught me that it seems this years class of 3 year olds will run a smart race and not get caught up in a speed battle. I look for this to repeat, and I will discount the closers slightly going forward.

The best horses being near the lead means they will usually get great trips almost every race. I don’t see American Pharaoh, Dortmund, or Firing Line really falling off in the Preakness. Maybe fatigue will play a role because of the short 2 week layoff, but all the top horses are dealing with the same quick turnaround. I also rewatched the last 8 Preaknesses, and there is a definite trend that the fractions are reasonable or slow in the beginning and early speed ends up dueling the stalkers. True closers don’t play a factor in the end (you have to go back to 2007 and Curlin to see a closer win), which sounds a lot like what happened in the derby to me. I think we are set for a very similar battle. People can talk up the added pace in this race compared to this year’s derby or make a big deal about AP and Dortmund needing to run fast early because of inside posts, but I trust the history of this race and this class of 3 year olds. Do not be scared of front-running horses.

In my original Preakness draft, it seemed like a lot of the top contenders from the derby would be shipping up to Pimlico; however, Todd Pletcher eventually decided to stick with his M.O. and skip the Preakness with all his horses. This leaves a MUCH weaker field than the derby. It is really a shame that he made this move. It weakens the Preakness, and it will be very hard for AP to win the triple crown if he does win the Preakness with about 8 very talented fresh horses waiting for him at Belmont Park. Horse racing really needs to push the Preakness back a week and the Belmont back 2 weeks. This would attract more of the top horses to the Preakness, and it would make for better story lines in the Belmont because people would become more familiar with the contenders. Taking time off to rest for the Belmont is a cowardly move by Pletcher, but I can understand it with the current format that allows for little rest.

With that being said, let’s look at the (MUCH smaller) field.

The returning derby favorites:

1 - American Pharaoh (4-5) -The derby winner deserves to be the favorite, and I even think being the odds on favorite is justified. By all accounts he is training well, and he simply looks to be the best horse this year. He definitely would have preferred an outside post, so he could tuck in just off the lead. The rail position will force him to use a little bit of early speed to keep from being squeezed or fall a little further back than usual. I think what we saw in the derby is exactly what he is. A good stalking horse that will be a huge factor in the race. Obviously needs to be considered in all bets, but just because you think he will win doesn’t make betting him to win a good value bet. I think a bet on him to PLACE or SHOW may actually offer more value as those bets can often be overlooked on odds on favorites and actually end up paying a similar price as the win bet with less risk (California Chrome’s win and place bets paid the exact same last year). I highly suggest that bet (AP to place and/or show) for people looking to root for a triple crown and make a potentially decent value bet. It won’t payout very much at all, but it should win a very good percent of the time.

8 - Firing Line (4-1) - This horse loves to come in 2nd. Like I said in the derby primer, there is just no X-factor here. He has lost duels now with Dortmund and AP. There were aspects of his stretch performance in the derby that I liked and some I really didn’t. It seemed like the jockey really had to battle him to stay near the rail. He wanted to drift out slightly, but on the flip side I loved the heart to take a second shot at AP once he was initially passed. The really big concern/question mark is that this horse didn’t change leads down the stretch in the derby. Normally, horses change their leg that is leading their stride as they come down the stretch, which gives them a little added kick. This could explain why he went a little wide and why he just couldn’t beat AP down the stretch. Conversely, I love how AP handles himself down the stretch in every race. I really put FL and Dortmund on almost exactly an equal level. They will be near the front early and with a reasonable pace can win the race but probably a tick below AP in terms of quality. Fun fact: this horse is owned by the former CEO of Talbots clothing.

2 - Dortmund (7-2) - I always think his red, white and blue silks make the jockey look like Captain America on his back, but American Pharaoh was the better America on derby day. The 2nd position will force a quick start, but could allow him to box in AP. He hopes the slightly shorter Preakness will help the early speed a bit more, and maybe he can recover faster than the others. It was said he was a little sick the week before the derby. So maybe his health was just below 100% in that race and will be a notch better at Pimlico. AP really took the whip on the stretch to get the win, so maybe Dortmund and Firing Line bounce back a little quicker from slightly easier rides. It is a bit weird that Baffert also trains this horse, and he could essentially block himself from a shot at the triple crown if Dortmund beats AP. I like him slightly better than Firing Line based on overall past performance, improving health, and trainer experience. If there is a horse in the field that can beat AP, it’s this horse.

What you see is what you get from the favorites. Expect similar races as the derby for each of them, and with the smaller field and the fact they like to be close to the lead, they all should get fairly good trips around Old Hilltop. They also all run styles that have won the race in the recent past. Because they are now the known quantities, don’t expect a big payday at all, but they are all very solid.

Other derby returners:

4 - Danzig Moon (15-1) - I thought he would stay off the pace a little more in the derby. Instead he rode around in about 5th and pretty much stayed there the whole race. No real kick but no real fade either. Maybe in the Preakness he will have a little bit more run at the end if the pace is a little quicker. If the pace is slow like the derby, then I could see a similar race unfolding, but in either case I don’t see him getting all the way to the front and winning it. He really is probably the closest thing to a closer with some quality in the race, so there is a high chance he is hanging around in the 3rd or 4th position like Frosted did in the derby.

3 - Mr. Z (20-1) - A late addition to the race after he was sold to new owners right before the entry cutoff. This horse should not be in this race in my opinion. His past owners trotted (no pun intended, ok pun maybe a little intended) him out way too often. They finally decided to NOT run him in the Preakness against the trainer’s suggestion, but sold him to an owner that then decided to agree with trainer. This will be his 6th race of the year and 14th overall. To put that in perspective, some horses only have 4 or 5 races total. It’s also funny that he is named after his past owner (Zayat), and his owner just sold him. He finished 13th in the derby, and really didn’t ever play a factor after a bad trip. There are a lot of better horses in the race to waste my money on. I think he will be a good G3 stakes type horse for a while in the future but G1 races like these are a little over his head. Expect him to stay near the front for more airtime and fade in the final turn.

New shooters:

7 - Divining Rod (12-1) - An interesting entry in the race because this is a new speed horse. He could potentially be in the mix with the favorites with a decent start, but I don’t think he’s good enough to hang for the whole race. He’ll probably be gobbled up down the stretch, especially if he goes all the way to the lead. However, if he does push Firing Line and Dortmund to go a little faster, that could set up some of the stalkers and closers for more of a chance. I see this horse as a major x-factor in determining who will win the race if he decides to dictate the pace or forces FL wide in the 1st turn, but he himself will be lucky to hang on and hit the board.

6 - Bodhisattva (20-1) -  His name means “enlightened being” in Buddhism. I will enlighten you, and tell you he isn’t going to win. Not even close. The only real positive thing I can say is he has won on this track before. He has shown that he wants the lead, but the speed he was running to get the lead would be lucky to have him in 5th place in a race of this quality. If he runs the same pace, he will be way behind the leaders, and I just think it is safe to toss him out from a top 3 position. He’s a decent horse for the laurel park/pimlico area, but won’t factor in this race in any major way as I see it.

5 - Tale of Verve (30-1) - It is a disgrace that this horse is entered in this race. Tale of Verve has only won a maiden race (a race for horses that have 0 career wins) and it was on his 7th try. They wanted to run him in the derby, but they couldn’t because he didn’t have any qualifying points. His owner has already admitted to this entry being like a lottery ticket. This is like going from a high school track meet straight to the olympic trials. The Preakness needs to get some standards of qualification like the derby to prevent crap horses from entering just to get their name out there or to get the owner’s name on TV. If they instituted some kind of money minimum or something, they could prevent some entries like this. Maybe he will catch lightning in a bottle and make me look like a fool, but I just think it’s a disgrace they are entered. In such a small field, I think ToV could come in 4th or maybe a lucky 3rd because he has run the distance before and will be a closer, but really he will be a leach trying to suck up the scraps of tired horses down the stretch and has no chance to actually win the race.

Horses by style: SPEED: Firing Line, Dortmund, Divining Rod, Mr. Z STALKERS: American Pharaoh, Bodhisattva CLOSERS: Danzig Moon, Tale of Verve

Horses by quality: Tier 1 = Good chance to win: American Pharaoh Tier 2 = Outside chance to win: Firing Line, Dortmund Tier 3 = Good chance to hit the board: Danzig Moon Tier 4 = Maybe a 3rd?: Divining Rod, Mr. Z Tier 5 = No real chance at top 3: Bodhisattva Tier 6 = Owners should be ashamed: Tale of Verve

It is dangerous to completely write off multiple horses in a field of just 8. It is just so possible that one of them runs okay or finishes strong and comes in 3rd or 4th place well behind the winner. The favorites won’t really offer a big pay day, so for me it comes down to finding value in exotics on this race. Putting AP in the top spot and trusting that the horses I say are crap are actually crap seems like the best route. If Dortmund (or Firing Line) runs big and actually wins, then we are out of luck, but for my money, AP as the solo top choice is the way to go.

Exacta: Simple here. AP over FL, Dortmund, DM It won’t pay much, but it’s just 3 combinations, so it will be cheap. None of the other 4 horses can come in top 2 in my opinion, so as long as AP takes care of business this will hit. A $2 exacta will cost you $6 bucks and if it hits it should pay about $15.

Trifecta:    I think American Pharaoh is the horse to beat by a lot. Pletcher doesn’t want his rival Baffert to win the triple crown, and he knew that this race is right in Baffert’s wheelhouse so he is saving all of his bullets for Belmont. I think the way to make some money is to just put AP in the win spot over the other derby horses and throw Divining Rod in as a show horse as well. I’m going to trust my reads on the other horses that I think are clearly multiple tiers below.

American Pharaoh /   FL, Dort, DM  /   FL, Dort, DM, DR This is a pretty risky bet, but at only 9 combinations, we can bet it more than 1 time for a potential decent payout. Looking historically on Preakness trifecta payouts, the lowest a $1 trifecta has paid out in the past 6 years has been $35. I think even the most chalk combination would have to pay out at least $20. Obviously, some combinations involving danzig moon and divining rod would pay a lot more if they came through.

Superfecta: American Pharaoh /   FL, Dort, DM  /   FL, Dort, DM, DR / FL, DM, DR, ToV, MrZ The superfecta starts to get tricky, as even the crappest of horses need to be considered to come in 4th in an 8 horse race. Building off the trifecta, I think I would also add Mr. Z and Tale of Verve for my 4th place position because Mr. Z is okay and ToV has a quality jockey and could sneak up as a closing horse. I am okay leaving Dortmund out of the 4th spot because he should have the talent to come in top 3 and Bod because he will be tiring. This bet now has 32 combinations, which is fairly reasonable for a superfecta bet. Based on the finish it would probably pay a minimum of $100 with a sky-high maximum.

Suggested Bets:

Super risk-adverse: $20 #1 to PLACE This will hit a high percentage of the time but won’t pay much. It gets you skin in the game at ok value and gives you a rooting interest in the triple crown.

Risk Adverse: $3 Exacta    1, 2 /   1,2,4,8 This will cost a total of $18 and should hit a high percentage of the time. Some combinations may result in roughly breaking even, but you get your feet wet with exotics and have some chances to win some money. I would be pretty surprised if this doesn’t hit, but like I said, you may not even win money if it does.

Riskier: $6 Exacta   1 /  2,4,8 This also costs $18, but it will pay double the other exacta if it wins. Do you trust American Pharaoh to get it done or do you give Dortmund (or some other horse) a shot?

Stepping it up: $2 Trifecta    1 /  2,4,8  /    2,4,7,8 This will yet again cost $18, but now you are calling the top 3. Obviously, we still need AP to take care of business and at this level we start having to dodge crap horses from running the race of their lives to come in 3rd.

Gambler: $0.50 Superfecta 1/ 2,4,8 / 2,4,7,8 /  3,4,5,7,8 Going for broke here. It will cost $16 (I believe you could actually bet it at as low as 10 cents depending on track rules). We start to have to include some junk horses to cover the 4th spot, but the potential is high as well.

Some story lines to keep in mind. The 2 favorites American Pharaoh and Dortmund are both trained by the famous Bob Baffert as he looks to win the derby for the 4th time. He last won in 2002 with War Emblem. His main rival, Todd Pletcher, will saddle Carpe Diem, Itsaknockout and Materiality and look to take Baffert down. Long-shot Itsaknockout will act as a billboard for the Mayweather/Pacquiao fight later that night with a saddle blanket advertising the pay-per-view and the fighters names written on the jockey’s legs. The #11 horse Stanford was scratched, which allows another long-shot Frammento into the field.

For the newcomers, the Derby is run over the classic distance—1.25 miles, 10 fast furlongs for the roses. It’s usually the first time any of these 3 year old horses have run this far. It’s all about projecting how they will handle the extra distance and deal with a crowded 20 horse field. The closers will deal with a lot of traffic, and the early speed horses may dry up the well too early. Let’s take a look at the field.

Favorites:

#18 (5-2) - American Pharaoh - This is a horse I have been following for quite awhile. In 4 graded races since September he is 4 for 4 in wins. Usually a good sign, but the competition in these races has been very suspect. He has been an odds on favorite in the last 3 races and has not really been tested. He likes to be on or near the lead, but that may just because no good horses were there to challenge him. I love the way he changes leads and seems to pull away down the stretch, but how will he handle a field with more talent?

#8 (3-1) - Dortmund - Just like American Pharaoh, he has won 4 graded stakes races in a row, and was an odds on favorite in all 4. He has not won in as dominate a fashion as AP, but he has answered the bell each time nonetheless. The son of famous horse Big Brown, he seems to lack the top end speed of his famous father, but he handles distance well. Really improved in the Santa Anita Derby. He likes to be on or near the lead because he can’t close a ton of ground quickly. His biggest threat will be trying to stay near an early quick pace that wears him out allowing him to get out-kicked. A modest pace would really be to his liking as he can methodically run his race near the front and finish strong. His solid starting spot really benefits him. I think the 8 spot gives him a chance, and the 18 spot doesn’t really hurt AP too much, but the 18 spot would have buried Dortmund.

#2 (8-1) Carpe Diem - This horse is a bit of a wild card. He has 4 wins and a 2nd in 5 career starts, but he was raced in a variety of ways. He won wire to wire, from near the lead, and from a stalking position. He came in 2nd in a large, quality field coming from 2nd to last place. A versatile horse could be needed to navigate the large field at Churchill Downs. My take is he is just steady. If the pace is quick, he backs off, but he will go to the front if the field is inferior. I think he stalks the lead in the derby, allowing the early horses to tire themselves out, and he will finish strong down the stretch. The obvious downside is the post position. Being close to the rail makes it very tough to win and very likely to get squeezed out.

Breaking down the 3 favorites, I think they are largely untested. Coming from different parts of the country and largely dominating their respective fields, this will be a big step up in quality for all of them. I worry that Dortmund doesn’t have the speed to handle the larger field, so he is the worst of the 3 for me even if Firing Line did test him a couple times. American Pharaoh is probably my favorite horse of the 3 from purely an eye-test type evaluation, but Carpe Diem probably offers the best VALUE on derby day if you are not scared by the post position. A winning CD ticket will likely pay about triple what a winning AP ticket would pay, and I don’t think that much of a disparity is warranted. I do think that they are all solid horses and need to be considered in all exotics. Expect to see all these horses around at the end even if they do not factor into the final decision.

The Next Tier:

#6 (20-1) - Mubtaahij - The hope of the Emirates, Mubtaahij has already raced a ~1 and 3/16 mile (they use metric measurements), close to the 1.25 miles of the Derby. Most American horses only go 1 and 1/8th before the derby. His last race he simply crushed the field. Obliterated them. Annihilated them. UAE based horses have never really faired well on American soil, but this colt seems to be pretty good. I just don’t know enough about international racing to get a perfect feel on him. He seems to have speed and class. I will have to do more research leading up to the derby to see how serious to take him.

#3 (12-1) -  Materiality - A lightly raced horse that is basically coming into the derby with 1 real race under his belt. His other 2 races were a sprint and an ungraded race. In the Florida Derby, he dueled a solid horse in Upstart and prevailed. The lack of experience is always a bit of a concern, but the horse did run strong in that race and needs to be considered.

#10 (12-1) - Firing Line - If it weren’t for Dortmund, Firing Line would be getting a lot of attention. 2 1sts and 2 2nds (both by a head) in his last 4 races. The only horse he has lost to is Dortmund in the last 6 months. He seems to be lacking just a little bit of the X-factor to put him over the top in close races. He handles his business as a favorite but was not up to the task when dueling Dortmund. I like that he raced really well in his final derby prep, but I just don’t think he has the chops to actually win this race. Not a bad horse to put on the back end of exotics, but I will probably not have him winning on any of my tickets.

#15 (15-1) - Frosted - Despite being a trendy pick from some pundits, I don’t really think this horse deserves to be in this tier. He is clearly at least a step below Upstart who has dominated him in the 2 recent races they entered together. I don’t give him much credit for a win in the Wood Memorial because of a weak field and a slow pace. A lot of the top horses have similar stalking styles more or less, and I just don’t think this horse can win.

#19 (15-1) - Upstart - I put this horse on an equal level with Materiality. Materiality prevailed by a length in the Florida Derby, but Upstart has a lot more experience and history of solid races. Upstart has dominated Frosted in the races they have run together. It will be an interesting trip starting in 19th, but a ground-saving ride with a solid finish is not out of the question. I definitely think this horse could offer some value in the “next tier” class as he has had a little less success than the favorites but would pay a lot more.

#12 (20-1) - International Star - This horse has accumulated the most points in the derby prep races, but he did it through low quality volume. Already with 9 career races (7 of them graded stakes races), this horse did well in the Louisiana preps this year, but struggled against classy fields late last year. He is a closer, which is interesting as the rest of the field so far has been almost exclusively stalker/early speed types, but I don’t think he has shut-the-door stretch speed. He seems like the type of horse that runs towards the back and rallies late to finish 3rd or 4th on a good day. A lot of experience and wins here but lacks the substance of a derby champion.

Taking a look at the horses with odds from 10-1 to 20-1 is usually a place to find a lot of value. These horses are used to being favorites in their home states, but will now offer a lot of money if they win in the quality triple crown fields. Mubtaahij is a wild card for me. History says avoid international horses, but this horse does seem to be better than most of his predecessors. I will be doing some reading and listening about him in coming days. Materiality and Upstart seem like they could factor in the decision, and I may consider them as longshot picks worth taking a hard look at. Firing Line and International Star seem to be horses that may be around late, but not true winners, and I just don’t see it with Frosted. He seems overrated to me. The overall field to me seems like a whole bunch of big fish in small ponds. Horses that have dominated their states will clash head to head, and I think that means that some of the favorites will be overrated and this tier could very well produce a big paying winner.

The ML 30-1 Group

#4 (30-1) - Tencendur - This horse has run 3 stakes races and come in 4th, 5th, and 2nd. I don’t all of a sudden see him stepping up to win the derby. He benefitted from a slow pace and weak field in the Wood Memorial where he came in 2nd behind Frosted. I already am not a big fan of Frosted, so finishing behind him does him no favors in my book. A 3rd or 4th place finish in the derby will be a big success for him.

#5 (30-1) - Danzig Moon - I find this horse pretty interesting. He ran a fairly good race last time out finishing 2nd to Carpe Diem. He lost to Carpe Diem 2 races ago as well, but a bobble at the start makes me kind of draw a line through that race, the Tampa Bay Derby. I like the post position a lot. He should get a ground saving trip tucked in behind the leaders and try to make a late charge. With few closers in the class of the field, he could be in the mix.

#7 (30-1) - El Kabeir - Much like International Star, this horse has a ton of experience in stakes races, but they were in different races. He has 7 graded stakes races under his saddle, with 3 wins, 2 2nds, a 3rd, and a 4th. He has consistent speed ratings, but who has he actually beaten? In his only wins since January, the only derby horse he has beaten has been Tencendur. Also, his last 2 races he completely changed from being an early speed horse to a closer. It worked well in the Gotham, but completely backfired in the Wood Memorial because the leader’s pace was so slow, and the field had more quality horses. It is really tough to be a stone cold closer in the derby because the stretch will be so clogged with tired horses. I think the change to a closer makes him a little bit more live to hit the board especially if the pace is quick, but he just lacks the talent to actually win the race. He will be ridden by the most famous jockey in Calvin Borel, so that will suck a little bit of value away from him as well. Maybe a consideration at the end of exotic tickets.

#9 (30-1) - Bolo - I was pleasantly surprised watching this horse run. He finished 3rd to Dortmund his last 2 races, but he looked to run well. I actually think his jockey cost him 2nd place in both races as well. It seems like Dortmund outclassed him in both races, so I don’t see him beating this field, but he has looked strong in the stretch to my eye. Trained by a female trainer, that may sap a little bit of value if a lot of the women bet this horse, but overall I think Bolo is just really solid for a longshot. Clearly a step below the leaders, but I give this horse a chance to hit the board.

#13 (30-1) - Itsaknockout - A Todd Pletcher horse, who will be looking for synergy from the Mayweather/Pacquiao fight the same day. It seems like he may take some money from the public that will be looking for a day of betting and boxing. He enters with 3 wins and a 4th, but that doesn’t tell the whole tale. One win was because Upstart was disqualified, and Upstart clearly looked to be the better horse to my eyes. Then he was absolutely crushed by Materiality and Upstart in his last race. Watching this horse, I just don’t think his record is accurately reflecting his skill. He deserves to be a long-shot, and I probably won’t have him on any except the deepest of tickets.

#20 (30-1) - Far Right - The aptly named Far Right will start quite a far ways down the right of the starting gate. As in races past, he is a stone cold closer. He will be in last place for a good majority of the race. Probably right from the gate, he will dart to the left and save ground and try to pass the entire field as the race progresses. He is no where near the quality of an American Pharaoh or a Dortmund, but he has shown success in lesser races. A big race to finish 3rd or 4th is not out of the question. He is probably one of the horses that would be least affected by such a far outside position.

Super Long-shots (ML 50-1)

#1 (50-1) - Ocho ocho ocho - A terrible draw along the rail, he is likely to get buried or pinched in early. He struggled with that at Santa Anita in the San Felipe and seems to do his best running on or near the lead. Unfortunately he just lacks the stamina to stay on the lead for long. I don’t give him much of a shot to even hit the board.

#14 (50-1) - Keen Ice - This horse is a closer without a fastball. He sits in the back of the pack and tries to come on at the end, but he just lacks the speed to make a move. He barely has been cracking the top 3 in his prep races, so I just don’t see him taking a big leap to hit the board in a 20 horse field with better quality. He seems to be a worse version of War Story who is a worse version of International Star. A true longshot for me, I think I will leave him off my tickets

#16 (50-1) - War Story - Consistently plays 2nd and 3rd fiddle to International Star in prep races. He is a closer that challenges the lead at times but does not have the real talent to get all the way to the front and win a race. He is the kind of longshot that may be able to run big and hit the board in 3rd or 4th, but I don’t think he can get all the way to the front.

#17 (50-1) - Mr. Z - He started racing at a very young age and has a whopping 12 starts under his belt. The downside is he won his first race and is 0 for his next 11. He has raced against a lot of this field already, and they almost always have his number. He’s lost to Carpe Diem, Ocho ocho ocho, Dortmund, Far right, International Star, Stanford (who was scratched from the race), and American Pharaoh. If he’s lost to all of these horses in small races, I don’t see how he can beat all of them in a big race. My best guess is he tries to avoid the horse that actually has a chance in gate #18 (American Pharaoh). They share the same owner with different trainers, so maybe the owner tells the jockey to give AP plenty of room and Mr. Z isn’t really heard from the whole race. I don’t see enough talent to warrant a bet here.

#21 (50-1) - Frammento - A late addition to the field with the scratch of Stanford, this horse is outclassed. He faired ok in claiming races, but the step up to graded stakes races was too much. He has just 1 top 3 in his 3 attempts at stakes races. In his last race out he got a great trip and still finished 4th (beaten by 3 derby runners). I don’t think he has the quality to run any better than that.

Race Breakdown: This year’s field is one of the deepest in recent memory. A lot of dominating performances in the prep races, but what do they really mean? Will one horse reign supreme when the titans clash and go on to win the triple crown, or will the talented horses all run well and split the jewels at Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont Park?

I give all the favorites a good chance to win with AP being my favorite but appropriately valued, CD being the best value if you aren’t scared of the #2 gate, and Dortmund being a little over-priced for my liking. The more I have read and heard about Mubtaahij I have liked, and he should offer a really good price. A UAE horse has to win sometime, right? Some pundits have been playing up both Materiality and especially Frosted, but I don’t love Materiality’s inexperience and I don’t see much talent in Frosted.

A lot of the talented horses like to be near the lead, so a speed battle could develop early and wear out the top horses, which could leave room for stalkers and closers to run big and win the race.

My tiers by gate number: Chance to win: 2, 5, 6, 8, 18 Chance to place/show: 3, 19 Chance of show/4th: 7, 9, 10, 12, 15, 16, 20 Maybe a 4th?: 4, 13 No Chance: 1, 14, 17, 21

How I would bet it - if I wasn’t a grad student and actually had money: With such a talented, large field, I can’t put good money on a favorite at a short price. I just don’t see the value, and the risk of a bad trip is huge. A trifecta or superfecta seems too difficult with so many quality horses and the large number of horses I give a shot. Covering all the combinations would be too expensive.

I think I’ll put some smaller bets on middle priced horses that I like as well as a 5 horse exacta-box with my 5 favorite picks.

Sample $100 bets: $2 Exacta box 2,5,6,8,18     = $40 $10 P/S 2 = $20 $10 W/P/S 6 = $30

Wichita State vs Notre Dame (+2) [7:15 PM, CBS]

Greg – My bracket says Notre Dame (in one of the few matchups I actually have correct), but I must admit that some of it was hedging against Wichita State having a tough road to the Sweet 16. The Irish have already endured two tough games, and I expect this one to be close as well. Their poor defensive rankings are getting a lot of press, but they locked it down against Butler when they needed too. That game was also a great example of the benefit of having so many talented scorers. Both Zach Auguste and Pat Connaughton were held to seven points, but Steve Vasturia picked up the slack with 20. The Shockers have a lot of scoring options as well, but they don’t have the inside presence to get Auguste in foul trouble. I’m taking the points because this one is too close to call. Notre Dame. Travis – Notre Dame (I didn’t give Travis enough of a heads up for analysis, but he at least gave me his picks). North Carolina vs Wisconsin (-6.5) [7:47 PM, TBS] Greg – Trying to predict the performance of North Carolina is a dangerous game to play. I also had this matchup in my bracket and there are many eraser marks where the winner goes. I was surprised that Oregon was able to stick around with the Badgers, and that makes me wonder if UNC can take it one step further. The status of Kennedy Meeks is huge. He could play a big part in literally taking Frank the Tank out of the game by getting him in foul trouble. The Badgers have an uncertain injury status as well with Traevon Jackson possibly returning. Given that Josh Gasser is likely already set to defend Marcus Paige, I don’t see Jackson being as crucial. UNC needs to get in transition to score and Wisconsin just doesn’t turn the ball over. However, I still haven’t fully embraced Maryland being in the Big 10, so I can feel my ACC bias saying that UNC will at least cover.

Travis – UNC (ATS only)

West Virginia vs Kentucky (-13) [9:45 PM, CBS] Greg – I promise I’m not just being a bitter Terps fan; this game will not be close. WVU wins by forcing turnovers and getting offensive rebounds. Kentucky actually has multiple ball handlers, and has much more size than Maryland. I was surprised to see that the size doesn’t necessarily translate to great defensive rebounding as they only grab 72% of available rebounds when they’re on defense. However, it appears to be an “anything you can do, I can do better” situation as Kentucky is an even better offensive rebounding team than WVU. The Mountaineers are going to follow the blueprint of Cincy and try to out tough the Wildcats, but just like the Bearcats, WVU will not have enough offense to seal the deal. Unlike the Bearcats, they will also fail to cover. Gotta applaud the confidence of Daxter Miles though (see above). Travis – Kentucky.

Xavier vs Arizona (-11.5) [10:17 PM, TBS] Greg – I have not been on the Xavier bandwagon so far, and so far that has been a poor decision. The Musketeers don’t have the same athletes as other successful teams, but they have been getting it done. Sean Miller used to coach at Xavier, so this will be a classic situation of who can run the schemes the best since the current Xavier coach was an assistant for Miller. I’ve been high on Arizona all season, and even though it took them a half against OSU, they have been cruising through the tournament. I see the Wildcats holding Xavier to the low 50’s and covering this game easily. Travis – Xavier (ATS only). If Travis did have time for analysis, he would have definitely noted that Matt Stainbrook is a bit of March Madness doppelgänger for me.

Sleeper team Travis – Oklahoma has been my team since the beginning.  They have a trio of experienced guards all of whom bring something different to the table.  Virginia, Michigan State, Villanova, Louisville, and Oklahoma can all make runs to the final four.  Like I said above, I think this region is loaded.  Oklahoma can score with anyone, and their defense is improved. Greg – Providence has two players that can single-handedly win games: Kris Dunn and LaDontae Henton. Dunn impacts the game in every way possible and Henton just makes buckets. A potential first round matchup with Dayton is tough, and I also like Oklahoma, but I’m in on the Friars to make some noise. Toughest first round matchup to pick: Travis – Northern Iowa vs Wyoming.  Both teams play a slow grind it out style.  The similarities are pretty remarkable.  Wyoming earned their bid through their conference, so they are used to playing do or die games.  (I know UNI won its conference too, but they were always going to be an at-large bid.)  Ultimately I think UNI pulls this game out because Seth Tuttle will be the best player on the floor, but it is a tough draw for them. Greg - Northern Iowa vs Wyoming. See analysis above. This game is the poster child for matchups where the committee screwed mid majors. Player(s) to watch: Travis – Justin Anderson is the player to watch, but it might not because he is going to tear it up.  Midway through the season he was an all-american candidate.  A hand injury forced him to the bench, and he just returned for minor minutes in the ACC Tournament.  He is still clearly banged up, and Virginia is not the same team without him.  Prior to the injury, they were National Championship worthy.  Now they could be susceptible to an early exit. Greg – I agree on Anderson for sure, but will also throw out Denzel Valentine. The two seem destined to play in a rematch of last year when Sparty ousted UVA. Valentine is the best passer on Sparty, and has hit plenty of clutch shots. If MSU has a deep run in them, Valentine will be leading the way. Final Four Pick Travis – Oklahoma over Louisville.  I think this bracket is pretty wide open.  I have been on Oklahoma since the opening podcast, and I still like what I see.  They can score a bunch of points, and now they have some toughness on defense to match.

Greg – Villanova over Virginia . Sorry for the chalk. I usually don’t give Nova love, but I’m all about teams that have many different scorers. Nova has six players averaging 9.2 points per game or more, and four of them have the ability to go off for 20 in any given game. It is rare that such a high number of players have an off game, so I like their ability to grind through when they need to.

South Best chance for the #1 seed to fall Travis – Robert Morris.  Duke does not play any defense.  They could fall every matchup.  Seriously though San Diego State could really muck up a game against Duke and make it a one possession contest in the round of 32. Greg – Utah is the toughest team for me to assess in this tournament. They are entering under the radar because of a poor end to the season, but don’t forget that they were ranked in the top ten just a few weeks ago. I would be all about this upset pick if I wasn’t concerned that Stephen F Austin could upset them in round 1.

Sleeper team Travis – Utah.  The Utes ended the season a little slow, but they were right there with Arizona most of the season.  Utah has a tough first round matchup against Stephen F Austin, but then they get an overseeded Georgetown team.  Who knows against Duke, but it would not shock me. Greg – Davidson. Don’t discount these Wildcats when considering whether you want to have a bracket with an all Wildcats Final Four. They can shoot for days, and Gonzaga has been disappointing in recent tournament. Steph Curry isn’t still eligible, but if they get hot from three you might think he’s out there.

Toughest first round matchup to pick Travis – SMU vs UCLA.  SMU won a weak American Athletic Conference this season, and UCLA should be somewhere in the CBI tournament.  Neither team wows me on paper, but I think UCLA pulls this out somehow. Greg – Utah vs Stephen F Austin. I’ve already made my case for the Utes, now it’s time to acknowledge the Lumberjacks. They were lucky to beat VCU last year, so don’t put so much weight in to that. What you do need to acknowledge is they have tournament experience so they aren’t just happy to be here. I have the winner of this game going to the Sweet 16 which just adds to the pressure. Player(s) to watch Travis – Delon Wright is the do everything point guard for Utah that I mentioned in the preseason podcast.  He did not end up winning PAC-12 player of the year (Joe Young, Oregon), but he still had a terrific season.  The pieces are in place around him to make a deep tourney run. Greg – Justise Winslow does not get the same hype as Okafor and Jones, but I think his skillset is more versatile and makes him the most important player for Duke. I have Iowa State going far, and Monte Morris is a big reason why. Obviously Niang is greatly important, but Morris tends to be the instigator of their big runs.

Midwest

Best chance for the #1 seed to fall Greg – I have to admit that I know I am stealing TK’s pick here because I watched the selection show with his brother, but Notre Dame is the only team in this region that can reasonably be expected to beat Kentucky. They have strong guard play led by Jerian Grant, and enough sharp shooters to beat the Wildcats on the perimeter. I’m not sure who will guard Kentucky inside, but hot shooting will keep Notre Dame close. Travis – Notre Dame is my pick to challenge Kentucky, but they could just as likely get blow out if they are not making shots.  I will throw out another team who has actually proven they can play with Kentucky.  That team is Texas.  The Longhorns kept it close in Rupp for ¾ of the game when they met earlier this season.  They have the bodies inside, but it is still an outside shot. Sleeper team Greg – This is the toughest region for me to pick this category. A sleeper that I liked before the tourney was Valparaiso, which I am obviously not picking at this point. I also liked Buffalo, but again, I’m not even entertaining those teams getting to the Sweet 16 (I don’t even want to explicitly say why so look at the bracket if you’re confused). I don’t want to completely cop out of this category so I will say that you should consider a surprise Elite 8 run from the Shockers. I’m struggling with each of their potential matchups: IU, Kansas, Notre Dame; but they have the talent to do it. Travis – Like I said above I think Texas has the pieces to make a run.  Rick Barnes is essentially coach for his life.  I have been saying for a couple weeks that the Longhorns would make the tournament and win a couple games to save Barnes’ job.  It is going to happen and we are going to have to live with his horrible coaching and under achieving team for another season. Toughest first round matchup to pick Greg – Wichita St vs Indiana. I realize that I am all over the place with the Shockers right now, but it is because they have the pieces to make a long run, but have to get through a lot of teams with similarly strong pieces. The Hoosiers could easily make a surprise run to the second weekend. Yogi Ferrell and James Blackmon, Jr each have the deep shooting ability to carry the team. Plus Troy Williams is awesome when the other team doesn’t have a strong interior. The Shockers are led by their guards so Williams could have a huge day. Travis – West Virginia vs Buffalo.  The Mountaineers press the entire game, and they come at you in waves.  Their offense is suspect and they rely so heavily on forcing turnovers for easy baskets.  Buffalo is coached by Bobby Hurley who is a two-time national champion point guard at Duke, so they will not be surprised by the pressure.  Buffalo played Kentucky tough earlier this season, so they are not afraid of the big stage. Player(s) to watch Greg – I have to give a shoutout to Melo Trimble and Dez Wells here. Trimble is a huge reason for the Terps success this season, and often gets overlooked as a top freshman because of the hype surrounding teams like Duke and Kentucky. Obviously that hype is deserved, but no reason Melo can’t get some love as well. Meanwhile, Wells is the heart and soul of the Terps and shows how awesome it is when a player is in school for four years and grows as a player each season. Travis – Pat Connaughton is every coach’s dream.  An undersized forward who can stretch the floor on offense with a buttery stroke as well as defend and rebound with the best of them.  Jerian Grant might be the engine to the Notre Dame train, but Connaughton is the glue that makes their style possible. Best potential storyline Greg – How crazy would it be if Wichita State beat Kentucky in the Elite 8 to end the Wildcats perfect season a year after Kentucky beat the Shockers to end their perfect season? Travis – Wichita State has been begging Kansas for a matchup the past couple seasons.  The NCAA has finally given them a chance.  If the Shockers get past Indiana, a date with Kansas looms for state supremacy. Final Four Pick

Ashley Judd approves of our Final Four pick for the Midwest.

Greg – My bracket currently reads Kentucky over Notre Dame, but it is written in pencil, so I reserve the right to change it. This may have to be a two-bracket kind of year where I pick the safe bet like Kentucky and the more interesting pick like the Irish TERPS. Travis – Kentucky over Texas.  This region does not matter.  The whole universe will rightfully have Kentucky coming out of the Midwest.  Might as well take a flier with Texas.

West

Best chance for the #1 seed to fall Travis – I have not been shy on my feelings about North Carolina this season.  It is impressive how inconsistent their play has been this season.  The Tar Heels can put up points and have great size to battle Kaminsky and Dekker.  Ultimately they will probably make one too many mistakes, but it could be a heck of a game. Greg – Travis wrote up this section first, and especially since I’m about to take his pick again, I might as well let him get the first crack. The Tar Heels have the talent to make the Final Four, but the letdown factor to lose to Harvard. They have great depth and athleticism, so they can matchup with anyone. Brice Johnson is automatic around the rim, and Marcus Paige is a PTPer. Outside of the Heels, the obvious choice is Arizona (see below). Sleeper team Travis – BYU* is such a fun team to watch.  Collinsworth and Haws can both put up huge numbers, and they have a very deep rotation.  The first four matchup could provide them some momentum heading into a matchup against Xavier.  Xavier is solid defensively, but I do not think they can score with the Cougars.  Baylor is strong, but their zone could be torched by BYU’s shooters. Greg – Again I am on board with TK, as I love combo of Collinsworth and Haws for the Cougars*. For the sake of parity, I’ll throw out Ohio State. A lot of sites had them as one of the most under-seeded teams at 10. Obviously the second round matchup with Arizona is brutal (not to mention the first round matchup against VCU), but D’Angelo Russell is the type of special talent that can put a team on his back and carry them on a hot streak.

*Clearly written prior to BYU blowing a double digit lead against Ole Miss last night. I don’t know if I trust the Rebels to beat Baylor, but I (Greg) still have them over Xavier.

Toughest first round matchup to pick Travis – VCU vs Ohio St.  VCU’s pressure is not as good as it has been in the past, but it has improved over the last month of the season.  Ohio St has been terrific on offense at times this season, but I think they slumped late in the season.  D’Angelo Russell has been nothing short of perfect this season, but VCU has plenty of time to scout him.  Ultimately I think I will trust Shaka Smart to get some of the old NCAA magic back. Greg – I really should have finished this region first. I agree with the above, but I am leaning OSU. Again for parity I will throw out Arkansas vs Wofford. I always like when mid majors have experience against power conference teams entering the tourney. Wofford actually upset NC State in Raleigh. They were blown out by WVU and Duke, but still have to feel like they can hang entering this game. Arkansas had a season that is hard to characterize, but in the end I think Bobby Portis wills them to a victory. Player(s) to watch Travis – Stanley Johnson has the keys to the Arizona offense.  Their offense struggled a few weeks back when Johnson was not hitting his shots, but they seem to find their groove in the PAC-12 conference tournament.  Arizona’s defense will always force turnovers, so at worst Stanley Johnson will provide some highlight dunks in transition.  He will probably bolt for the NBA next season, so this tournament should be a nice final showcase. Greg – Rico Gathers is just a physical specimen for Baylor. He averages almost five offensive rebounds a game, which is pretty impressive given that he is only 6’ 8’’. Kaleb Tarczewski is the most important player on Arizona in my opinion. He shows flashes of a real post game, and his size ensures that the Wildcats are never bullied down low. He needs to stay out of foul trouble and be assertive when he has an advantage matchup on offense. Best potential storyline See potential Arizona vs Wisconsin rematch below. Final Four Pick: Travis – Arizona over Wisconsin.  Not only do I think this will happen, but I really want to see this rematch.  These two squared off last season in the Elite Eight where Wisconsin got the best of Arizona in the reverse seeding.  Arizona has been rolling lately, and I think this team is Sean Miller’s best.  Either one of them will challenge Kentucky in the final four, but I love Arizona’s toughness. Greg – Arizona over North Carolina. This is another pick that may soon meet my eraser. It is so hard to put my faith in the Tar Heels to get this far, especially because I would not be surprised if Harvard pulled the first round upset. Can I really tempt the March Madness gods and potentially lose an Elite Eight team by 9:30 Thursday night? Luckily, I am very confident that the Wildcats will advance regardless of who they play here. TJ McConnell is underrated because Zona plays so late, but he is your typical star (non one and done) college point guard. He is a great distributor, defender, and can knock down a bucket when they need it. The wild card for them is Tarczewski as mentioned above. Don’t forget about the Rondae Hollis-Jefferson shimmy!

12:00pm Syracuse @ NC State (-6.0) Travis - It is now us versus the world for Syracuse.  Does that attitude lead to an upset?  NC State seems safe for now, but they are still flirting with that bubble.  Wolfpack take care of business. Greg – If you think I’m picking against Cuse in Rakeem Christmas’s last game then you’re crazy. The legend of the Orangeman is spreading around Boston, and while there will be no appearances in the dance this year, that doesn’t weaken the dedication to the Orange. The last few weeks have been their tournament, and they have made a splash. The last step is weakening the Wolfpack bubble.

12:00pm #21 Butler @ #24 Providence (-2.5) Travis - Butler is coming off a loss, and Providence got them the first time around.  I think the Bulldogs pull off the road win. Greg – I love the combo of Kris Dunn and LaDontae Henton. Andy Katz and Seth Greenberg have been talking a lot about how Senior Night can hurt a home team because of all the emotion, so maybe Henton starts slow in this one. Take Butler in the first half, but the Friars to pull it out in the end. 12:00pm Michigan St @ Indiana (-1.0) Travis - All in for Indiana on this one.  Their AD came out and backed Tom Crean.  A loss here could spell trouble for the Hoosiers on Selection Sunday.  I think they respond at home. Greg – If you judged these teams just based on reactions after their respective wins and losses to the Terps (throwing out the Hoosiers close loss) then Indiana would be Final Four bound and Sparty would be a bottom feeder in the Big 10. Turns out both teams are just stuck in the middle of the Big 10. Sparty doesn’t have the fire power to hang with Indiana at Assembly Hall. 2:00pm Florida @ #1 Kentucky (-15.5)

Travis - Will Kentucky complete the perfect regular season?  I cannot see a scenario where they lose at home.  Kentucky will roll big and end on a big high note. Greg – I agree with Trav; this one won’t be pretty. 2:00pm LSU @ 18 Arkansas (-6.5) Greg – I’m generally down on the SEC, but both of these teams have lots of talent, so they are generally fun to watch. In particular I like Jordan Mickey and his 3.7 blocks per game. LSU has fallen to an 11 seed in Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology, but I think they clinch a bid with a road upset to end the season.

2:00pm Oklahoma St @ 20 West Virginia (-6.0) Greg – I selfishly want the Pokes to take this one as it helps the Terps resume. It is hard to pick an outcome as Juwan Staten is questionable for the Mountaineers. WVU likely wins regardless, but I don’t see a cover without Staten. Oklahoma State falls to the bubble and needs a win in the Big 12 tourney to feel safe. 4:00pm #9 Kansas @ #15 Oklahoma (-5.0) Travis - Kansas locked up yet another Big 12 Regular Season Championship.  5 points is a lot at home, but Kansas has been underwhelming lately and they do not have a ton to play for.  Oklahoma rebounds off an epic collapse at Iowa State last time out. Greg – Oklahoma’s season hinges on this game. That loss at Iowa State is the type that derails a season. A strong response today would be huge from a confidence standpoint. Perry Ellis is definitely out and Cliff Alexander is likely out as well, so this is a vulnerable Jayhawks squad. I’m just not sold on the Sooners bouncing back so I’m taking the points. 4:00pm Stanford @ #5 Arizona (-13.5) Greg – Maybe it is my years of sweating out the Terps being on the bubble, but I just can’t resist these bubble games. The Cardinal are in the Next Four Out, but a win here would change that in a hurry. The Wildcats meanwhile are making a very strong push for a #1 seed. I don’t see them losing this, but I think Stanford keeps it close as long as they stay out of foul trouble. 6:30pm #2 UVA @ #16 Louisville (+2.5) Greg -  Only mentioning this game to make sure people don’t bother watching. It will be played in the 40’s and will make you question whether you should be excited for March Madness if these two teams are top seeds. I think that’s it….Enjoy! Just Kidding 9:00pm #3 Duke @ #19 North Carolina (-1.0)

Travis - Neither team can consistently defend.  UNC has the front court depth to bother Jahlil Okafor.  I think Paige finally goes off in front of his home crowd.  UNC is my play if I have to, but just bet the over and Enjoy the game.

Undercard:

#12 Louisville @ Syracuse (+2.5, O/U 130.5) [7:00 PM on ESPN] Travis – A lot has been made about Syracuse’s self-imposed post season ban.  Some analysts believe their players will quit on the season because it has no meaning.  Others feel they will elevate their game because each contest is a championship in itself.  I do not think the Orangemen will quit, but prior to the sanctions every game was like a championship anyways because they were squarely on the bubble.  Moral of the story, the sanctions should have no effect on the game’s line or the outcome.

As far as the actual game, the story is out with the Orange.  An already short bench is now gone because of injuries.  Their starters play huge minutes, so fatigue and foul trouble dictate a lot of their outcomes.  Louisville is coming off a terrible loss at home (Syracuse also lost at home, but it was a tough game to Duke), so I think they will be motivated.  Louisville has been one of the worst offensive teams this season, especially when forced to rely on the jump shot.  In years past, Syracuse could pack in their zone and force the Cardinals to beat them from the outside.  This year that will not be the case.  The Orangemen’s backline does not have the length it is accustomed to, and I think Louisville will be relentless inside and on the offensive boards.  The non-stop pressure for Louisville should also wear down Syracuse towards the end of the game. Louisville 67 – Syracuse 59.

Greg – The Cuse lack depth, but relative to what we expect from a Rick Pitino Louisville team, so do the Cardinals. That will be put to the test even more tonight since senior guard Chris Jones was suspended for unknown reasons on Wednesday night. That leaves the Cardinals with three players averaging double figures and then no player above 3.2 points per game. Terry Rozier will certainly carry more of the load, and MonTREZL should dominate down low, but I don’t think the two of them can combine for the 65ish point it will take to beat the Orange. Wayne Blackshear is the x-factor. If he has one of his seemingly random games where he is feeling it from three then Louisville can hang. 

However, we’re not about “if’s” here at BBP, we are about strong predictions, and mine is that the Orange pull this one off. I’m really bummed for Rakeem Christmas because he may be the most improved player in the ACC, and he will finish his career with his only season not in the Tourney. He’s progressed enough that I see him playing in the NBA. He added strength and post moves this season to go along with an already sound defensive game. Even though he won’t be playing man-to-man defense against Montrezl, it will be fun to watch them bang around in the post.

Christmas will be handing the reigns over to Michael Gbinije next season, and he’s why I see Cuse taking this game. Gbinije may be Christmas’ biggest competition for most improved in the ACC. He looks much more confident and assertive with the ball, and has become the Orange’s go-to playmaker. He’s shooting almost 10% better than Trevor Cooney from three and makes about two per game. He’s also not afraid to drive, but is a horrendous free throw shooter. Look for him to be in the high 20’s in a Cuse win: Cuse 68, Louisville 61.

P.s. Is it too Barstool of me to have a p.s.? Louisville is currently the top four seed that I am mostly likely to pick to be upset in Tourney. Obviously a lot can change in the next month, and matchups are huge, but their offense just disappears a lot. I love Montrezl, but they seem doomed, especially if Chris Jones is done.

#14 Iowa State @ #22 Oklahoma St (-1.5, O/U 144) [9:00 PM on ESPNU] Travis – Oklahoma State is at home.  The Pokes can control tempo, which led to a very close game in Hilton Coliseum earlier this year.  A terrible game at TCU last time out tends to point to a bounce back game at home. Oklahoma State 69 – Iowa State 66.

Greg – The Cyclones were one of my teams to watch heading in to the season, and I remain high on them despite some bumps in the road. Georges Niang has not been the dominant force that I expected him to be, but that has been offset by Monte Morris taking the next step. He is now one of the best point guards in the country, but I do wonder if Niang would be better off touching the ball more in the offense. Jameel McKay has come on strong since gaining eligibility, but I do worry that his increased minutes are at the expense of Dustin Hogue, who is the ultimate glue guy. I love teams with diverse offenses, and Iowa State epitomizes that with six guys averaging double figures.

Despite the Cyclones lovefest I just initiated, I believe Oklahoma State will put up a great fight in this game. Le’Bryan Nash is one of those players who has seemingly been in school for 8 years, but looks comfortable as the focal point of this offense. I’m really in to the interior presence of Michael Cobbins and believe the Pokes would have been at least a Sweet Sixteen team if he did not get hurt last season. Maybe Trevor Cooney has ruined sharp shooting white guards for me, but I get nervous when a guy like Phil Forte is the second-leading scorer (although he is admittedly a much more skilled and savvy player than Cooney). Still in Hoiberg I trust: Cyclones 76, Cowboys 72.

Main Event:

#15 North Carolina @ #4 Duke (-8.5, O/U 157.5) [9:00 PM on ESPN]

Travis – After trending up for several weeks, UNC has lost 3 out of their last 4.  In our preseason podcast, I loved UNC as an underrated team.  I still think they have final four potential, however a second guard still has not stepped up next to Marcus Paige.  Inconsistent play across the board has left UNC fans with plenty of head scratchers.

Duke has been an offensive juggernaut behind Jahlil Okafor this season.  Their defensive inefficiencies have been well documented.  Everyone has heard how Coach K even played zone a few games this season.  UNC can roll out plenty of front court players to try and contain Okafor, but he will still get his 20 and 10. UNC is the king of playing to their competition.  Duke is the better team, and they should definitely win at home.  Neither team can defend, and both teams are happy playing in the 80s.  Not sure what Vegas will make Duke cover, but I do not see it happening. Duke 86 – UNC 81.

Jay - Seattle, under - The betting public likes to look at the last week and just go with that. Patriots looked awesome and Seattle was VERY lucky to get a win. What they forget is heading into the week, Seattle would have been a 2.5 pt favorite over NE, and NE was VERY lucky to get past Baltimore 2 weeks ago. Considering the whole year, these teams are very equal, but I give a slight edge to Seattle for a few reasons. 1) Pats are distracted with all the “deflate-gate” and illegal formation stuff 2) Defenses tend to rise to the occasion in big games 3) they are the defending champs and their last playoff games have been victories over Drew Brees, Colin Kaepernick, Peyton Manning (last year’s playoffs), Cam Newton, and Aaron Rodgers. Tom Brady will not scare them. I am hoping for a Pats win obviously, but I have to be realistic and give the slight edge to the Seahawks, and consequently I go with the under because of their defense as well as the Patriots’ underrated defense. I think it will be a close game throughout and hope I am popping champagne and ordering a Jamie Collins jersey rather than drowning my sorrows in whiskey.

Greg - In accordance with Jay’s opening above, I would have been singing a different tune about this game if I had written this just one week ago. The Pats blowout of the Colts had no effect on me because I was fairly confident the Colts had already played their best game of the season, but the way Seattle struggled against Green Bay really changed the way I was thinking about them heading in to the Super Bowl. It was not only that Wilson threw four interceptions, but also what those picks represented - Wilson isn’t as unshakable as he usually appears and he has NO ONE to throw the ball to. Wilson is a good QB though, and given two weeks to review that tape, I would be shocked if he tries to force throws in this game (see the props article for how this impacts my thinking in the props).

As far as having no one to throw to, that is still my biggest concern when backing Seattle. People are not giving Darrelle Revis enough credit. If he follows Doug Baldwin around then you will not know Baldwin played this game. If he just stays on one side of the field, you will think the NFL banned the Seahawks from throwing over there. Jermaine Kearse is an interesting player if he’s primarily going against Brandon Browner, but I believe the Pats will have the deep ball covered, so I don’t think Kearse catches a bomb in this one. The two intriguing options are Marshawn Lynch and Luke Willson. Willson is interesting because the Pats struggle to cover TE’s and he has deceptive speed for his position. He’s no Gronk though, so while he may impact the game, I don’t see him being a deciding factor. Lynch is not thought of as a receiving back, but his late reception against GB was crucial to the comeback. The other reason this intrigues me is because I believe the Pats best strategy is to spy Russell Wilson with Jamie Collins to prevent him from scrambling. If they do this, that takes their best cover LB away from covering Lynch, which makes Lynch more of a threat out of the backfield. If they don’t spy then I think Wilson’s legs impact this game, so either way it is a difficult scenario for the Pats to defend.

Now that I have reminded myself that the Seahawks offense may be one-dimensional, but they are really good at that one dimension, I’m struggling with this game. Predicting the impact of injuries is tough, so I have to assume Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas will be fully capable, which means the Seahawks D will be stout. As I alluded to, I think Revis will have a big impact, and in general the Pats defense is better than the public consensus seems to be. Even with faith in both defenses, I see points being scored in the second half, and an exciting game, which makes picking the total just as hard as the side for me. I will not be putting my money where my mouth is for this one, but I’m going with Pats and OVER (31-24, which nicely coincides with my best chance at winning the BC squares pool).

Andrew - So you’re all thinking it’s gonna be a close game...actually so am I, just needed an excuse to break out my Chris Berman impression (spot on). It’s a unique situation this year, as I can’t pick with my heart over my head since I don’t care for either team (I know, me hating teams that win a lot...shocking). On the 1-year anniversary of both White Kam Chancellor and Jay’s SCPTSD, it’s all coming down to defense, as it usually does. Brady gets pressured, Seattle makes a few big defensive plays, and we’re all forced to watch another year of Richard Sherman’s (real?) mom yelling at him about soup. Your MVP? Russell Wilson. Your score? 28 - 24. And WCC goes crazy.

Editor's note - see another spot on Berman impression here.

Travis - NE 23 - 17  OT - Its going to be close.  The Patriots will rely on short passes and a power running game to control the ball.  Defensively the Patriots will play it similar to the Green Bay game;  Rush 3, contain the quarterback by being disciplined in rush lanes and having a QB spy.  Force Wilson and his “playmakers” to beat them rather than Wilson’s legs.  Marshawn Lynch will be effective, but I do not see either team letting up long plays or easy scores.  Gostkowski sends it into overtime.  Patriots slip Bill Vinovich a double-tails coin and win the overtime coin toss (“flip-gate” coming).  Brady goes a perfect 8-8 in overtime and marches his team down to the 1.  Blount punches it in, hands the ball to Gronk who spikes and pops the ball because it is overinflated this week because the Patriots own the league.  Confetti and controversy everywhere. Pete Carroll cries. Belichick, Brady, and Kraft flip the bird and all retire.

Ghana Jojo:  NE 27 - 20. (Under). MVP - Tom Brady. The Patriots have been the most dominant team in the playoffs thus far. Wilson and the Hawks have been the better story given the likable QB, inflated balls and outspoken (and sometimes media shy) characters. However, the NFC Championship Game taught us that Seattle is vulnerable. The comeback was incredible, but it was encouraged by even more incredibly poor play by the Packers late in the game. With a hurt secondary, I think we see the Seahawks' defense burned for four quarters. I'm going on a limb and will say turnovers will NOT be the main key for this game, as both teams play very smart ball. In the end, everyone's nightmare comes true as Tom Brady, Gronk and a full fisted Blount capture the chip, pushing pretty boy into the discussion of best ever.

Ben B - This game is going to be close.  So close, in fact, that I wouldn’t dare make a prediction if I hadn’t been reminded of the potential bad luck my silence could bestow.  This Super Bowl has been billed as a matchup between Seattle’s shut down defense vs. New England’s efficient offense, but I have a feeling that the game will be decided on the other side of that coin. This has the potential to be one of the best Super Bowls we have seen in a while, and I don’t expect it to be high scoring.  The game will be decided in the final minutes, and it is going to come down to whether Wilson and the Hawks’ offense can play a more traditional passing game. Both teams have an interesting challenge.  The Patriots will need to play on their heels, containing Wilson and forcing him into being a pocket passer (which, judging by the NFC Championship Game, isn’t his strong suit).  Lynch will get more than his fair share of yards, and I am guessing we will see the Patriots gut-wrenching “bend don’t break” defense that New England fans are all too familiar with and frankly, pretty damn tired of.  That being said, I’m more than happy to see Seattle field goals.  Wilson is going to need to be surgical with the football, because unlike the game two weeks ago, four interceptions will make a big difference.

On the other side of the ball, Brady will need to have one of his better games.  While I don’t want to discount the impact of recent distractions, I’ve seen things like this galvanize the offense far more often than they discourage it. Obviously, the Seahawks are no joke, and any attempt at even mid-range passes will be frustrating, if not disastrous. Luckily, the north-south running game and five yard pass are the Patriots M.O.  The success of the offense is going to be as much about scheming as it is execution, and I’m confident the they will have more than one game plan. I doubt Blount will be as effective as some are hoping, but I do think he’ll be effective enough to allow for some success in play action.  Both Lafell and Amendola are going to live up to their potential, Brady and Belichick will get number four, and Roger Goodell will promptly apologize for his unfounded accusations.  Patriots, Under (24-20).

Alex - Seattle over NE - 27 - 24, Over [this space intentionally left blank]

Kevin - NE over Sea 17 - 14, F. MVP: TB12. In this matchup for the ages, we are in for a great game filled with plenty of key matchups. Everyone has been discussing the impact of quarterback play but the key to the Lombardi trophy will lie in the matchups across the other 10 men on the field and all 3 phases of the game; offense, defense, and special teams. On offense, we know that the Seahawks play great zone defense. However, short underneath pass routes to Edelman, Amendola, and Vereen in between the soft spots of the zone should be number one on the Patriot’s game plan. Keeping the offense balanced with the running game will also be very important. This should open up the passing game more by baiting the Seahawks defense with play-action.

For the Seahawks, the legs of Marshawn Lynch have been the cornerstone throughout the regular and postseasons. For Super Bowl XLIX the big plus-size fellas up front will have to establish dominance in the trenches to allow the legs of another man to light up the field and that man is no other than Russell Wilson. The key for the Seahawks offensively has to be utilizing both the arm and legs of Wilson to keep the Patriots and its strong defense unbalanced.

Field position will play a tremendous role in this game and as a result special teams play becomes crucial. Both teams have to do their best pinning the opposing team deep within their own territory. Don’t be surprised is Gostkowski and Hauschka end up being accountable for a number of points in this one.

And last but not least, it comes down to the big highly anticipated defensive battle. Two of the league’s best cornerbacks, Darrelle Revis and Richard Sherman will square off against two great respective offenses. For you Seahawks fans, I’m sorry to disappoint but Richard Sherman may not be very effective in this matchup. As a corner that primarily plays one side of the field, this gives the Patriots an advantage to spread out its offense and throw a variety of formations at the Seahawks. Hopefully the Seahawks have learned from the Baltimore Ravens and Indianapolis Colts and know not to cover the “ineligible” receiver.

With all of this said, folks, we are in for a good one that will most likely come down to whichever team possesses the ball last. I will be sure to have a defibrillator on hand in case it’s necessary!

Ben - Pats 24-21 (under). Not to be too cocky but I think I'll just give a Phoenix update since the other guys pretty much covered everything. Just got back to Beantown after being in Phoenix all week. Awesome atmosphere there right now with both the Phoenix Open and the Super Bowl. Highly recommend the 16th hole at the Open for anyone who's never been... Biggest party hole in golf... Wild stuff. 

Anyway, based solely on jersey count and gear I would say it's going to be 65% Seahawks 35% Patriots in terms of "real fans" (non-corporate). Just another reason you'll see the Pats-against-the-world attitude on Sunday. Can't wait to celebrate #4!

Jack Cherewatti: We’re Going to State. As an ode to my favorite TV show of all time, Friday Night Lights, I’ve intertwined a few of my favorite players on the New England Patriots and Dillon Panthers.

Gronk/Tim Riggins: Riggins is the first person in the world I’d love to grab a beer with…and the absolute last guy I’d ever want dating my daughter. I feel the same exact same way about Gronk. Both only know one speed, 110 mph, whether pounding beers, chicks, or defensive backs.

Belichick/Coach Taylor: It’s been hotly debated over the years - who is the more integral part, Brady or Belichick? For me, it’s an easy answer. Belichick (Coach T) is the spoke of the wheel. He is a player developer. He ekes out every speck of athletic ability and talent from his players (i.e. Matt Cassel in 2008 when Brady tore his ACL or Matt Saracen after Jason Street went down in the first episode). There’s such a human element to coaching. Long-term success is defined more by player management than game management. Players come and go through the cycle, just like high school, but the respect never leaves.

Tom Brady/Matt Saracen: First, see the Friday Night Lights video Brady posted on his Facebook page. You will tear up too. Both quarterbacks started off as the quintessential underdog story. Through grit and laser like focus they rose to the top. They don’t get caught up in supermodels or dating Coach’s daughter (Julie Taylor, complete smokeshow, future wife). Even in the face of adversity they always believe in themselves. Brady learned this lesson at Michigan with the Drew Henson situation and so did Saracen with JD McCoy in Season 3. The gutsier player prevailed each time.

Mrs. 75 (Vince Wilfork’s wife)/Smash Williams’s Mom: Large, sassy, black women who completely dominate every male in their lives. Could each host and consumer an entire Thanksgiving dinner. Enough said.

Linda Holiday/Tami Taylor: Though no real life woman can ever live up to the awesomeness of Tami Taylor, Linda Holiday comes pretty damn close. Every man needs a counterpart to keep faith and persevere during the tough times. A blonde bombshell with nice boobs will do the trick.

Robert Kraft/Buddy Garrity: I don’t know who loves their jewelry more, Buddy with his State title ring or Bobby with his Super Bowl cufflinks. I can’t help but smile every time I see them on TV. The heartfelt passion is unmatched. No better men to lead a football organization. Texas forever.

Dillon Panthers 24 – 17 Arnett Mead

Jay- In the interest of full disclosure, I cashed a large winning ticket on Seattle ML in last year’s Super Bowl, but it was offset by doing terrible on props and hedging some money off to try to work a middle at halftime, so take my prop opinions with a grain of salt. That being said, I like Tom Brady to throw a complete pass on his first attempt (-175) because he will be looking to complete a short pass and prove he can throw an inflated ball. I like Brady’s longest completion to be under 37.5 yards (-115) because we just don’t have a legit deep threat. I like Shane Vereen over 29.5 yards receiving (-125) to go along with my check-down theory. Finally, I like Edelman to catch a pass before LaFell (-140).

On the Seattle side, I like a little long-shot of Wilson over 1/2 TD passes in the 1st quarter (+210) and Wilson throws a TD pass before Brady (+135). I think Seattle gets out to the early lead with a TD pass, not a rush. I say they score first (-115) as well. I also like both teams to complete a FG over 36.5 yards (+150).

Now for some fun ones. Tom Brady TD passes +.5 (EVEN) over goals in the Arsenal/Aston Villa game. Arsenal love pointless possession and Villa never score. I got Idina Menzel going OVER 2 minutes and 1 second for the anthem (-110) (although she was right about that time during the MLB All-Star game) to shake off the hit she took on New Year’s Eve. She’s a pro and she’ll drag this out and be really good. Belichick (-140) will be mentioned first by the announcer, and you better believe he’ll be shown first (-140) and be in a grey (-120) cut-sleeves (-200) hoodie. “Deflate-gate” dominated the news and going for a 4th ring trumps back to back rings. I like a longshot of Katy Perry to wear pants or shorts (+450 and +250), but I am hoping for a dress (and a wardrobe malfunction). I REALLY like the YES on will it be mentioned that Pete Carroll used to coach the Pats. It’s -250 but that is a LOCK. When the YELLOW (5/2) Gatorade is dumped on the winning head coach, regardless of the winner, I think this will be a great game from opening touchback (-140) to final kneel-down (-160)!

Greg - The first rule of betting props is always let how you think the game is going to play out influence what props you bet. While I am not confident of who will win, and what the final score will be, I do have some strong leans for how I think we’ll get to whatever outcome. In addition, it is always fun to pick some long shots that have at least some reasoning behind them.

Brady Rush Yards o/u 2.5 (OVER) - I am all about this one. Brady is the best QB sneaker in the game. Seattle is a good defense, so NE will likely be in 3rd and short or 4th and short at least two times this game. Brady could easily get this in one sneak and definitely gets it in two. Plus he could always scramble since the Pats will likely be spreading out Seattle’s D.

Julian Edelman vs Doug Baldwin Receiving Yards (Edelman -12.5) - Edelman’s individual yards prop is set at 67.5, while Baldwin is set at 54.5. I feel strongly that Edelman will have a big impact on this game because he will be playing in a similar role as Randall Cobb for the Packers, who had seven receptions and 62 yards in the NFC championship game. I’m confident Edelman will be above 50, but anywhere above is in play, so I’m hesitant at 67.5. However, I’m more confident that Revis will turn Baldwin into a non-factor, which means even at 50 yards, Edelman should win the heads up battle.

Marshawn Lynch Receiving Yards o/u 19.5 (OVER) - To summarize my analysis in my pick, I think either Russell Wilson runs for a good amount of yards or Lynch receives a good amount of yards. Slowing down Wilson’s running ability seems like a more pressing need for the Pats, so I like Lynch to benefit in the passing game.

More Points in the Second Half (and OT) vs the First Half (Second Half -0.5) - This has been the case in four of the five Super Bowls during the Brady-Belichick era, and the fifth time was a tie. In fact, the Patriots have never even scored points in the first quarter of any of those five games. That is a crazy stat, and knowing stats like that is why I will not be doing well on midterms next week....The point is, the Pats have been conservative to open the big game historically, and the Seahawks are always conservative, so I think there is a very good chance that the second half has more scoring. That leads me to also liking the First Half UNDER 23.5.

Will There be a Lead Change in the Second Half (Yes +130) - I think this plays well in to my theory that the first half will be low scoring, and the general consensus that this will be a good game. If the game is close at halftime then the first score of the second half could easily result in a lead change.

Super Bowl MVP (Julian Edelman 16/1) - The typical strategy is to pick the QB of the team that you think is going to win the game. I don’t have a strong enough lean for Brady (2/1) or Wilson (7/2) to offer me much value - Wilson being more tempting, but the possibility of Lynch or the defense being a big factor is too high for me to pull the trigger. So, I tried to find a player that is likely to touch the ball in a variety of ways, and that is Edelman. He is a primary receiver of Brady, a great punt returner, typically gets one rush per game, and even threw a TD against the Ravens (although I do not expect that play to be seen again). On the BS Report, Simmons was frustrated there isn’t a prop about whether Edelman returns a punt for a TD. This prop is a good alternative because if he does that, he will definitely be in the running for MVP.

Travis - Be smart about your Props. For instance, I’m seeing game goes into overtime at 7-1. On the same website I saw who is leading at halftime/fulltime. Pats/Tie, Seahawks/Tie, Tie/Tie are all 35-1. Makes more sense to spread a third of your bet on each of those 3 outcomes than all of it on the overtime prop. There are so many props available. Search for the best lines and the best props. Every site is a little different.

What will the result of the first coaches challenge? - Play Stands (Even) Coaches win like 43% of the time. Throw in you got the best refs of the year and that number should slide more to play stands.

Longest Touchdown in the game o/u 44.5 - Under I think both teams will play a conservative style. Barring a crazy turnover or special teams play, I don’t see it happening.

Russell Wilson Rushing Yards o/u 40.5 - Under Patriots will not let Russell Wilson run rampant. I think a QB spy will prevent a long run from happening.

Which QB will be sacked more? - Wilson (+125) Wilson takes more sacks than people think. All it takes is a couple bad rushes. I think Brady will rely on the run and short passing game, so the line should be able to hold up long enough.

Padma celeb picking for Jojo -

What will Katy Perry wear to start the halftime show?

Ms Perry will be wearing some type of weird leotard, because that's what she usually wears cuz shes got that body for it.

How many times will Gisele Bundchen be shown during the game? - O/U 1.5

Mrs Tom Brady is no longer a football story. Sure, shes gorgeous, smarter and richer. However, there are way too many issues to discuss with domestic abuse, deflated balls, concussions, etc. Other than a freak injury that causes them to show her for the reaction cam, she'll get her one, and one only, view if that.

Will Idina Menzel forgot or omit ar least one word of the National Anthem?

She's a broadway star, too much practice going live. No chance shes forgetting words on this. Definitely heavy on the perfect anthem.

How many times will "deflated" ball be said during the game? Over under 3 deflated

Unless Roger Godell forces them to not mention, this is an easy over. The NFL hasnt been good in covering up any nonsense this season, obviously. Take the over.

Will Lynch croch grab?

This assumes Lynch will score. As the primary back, he's getting to the promise land. Even if they are down by a lot, dude will do what he does. Will he shake hands? Yes. Will he croch grab? See previous answer.

Alex

National Anthem - Over

Coin Toss - Seattle, Defer

MVP - Marshawn Lynch

First Score - Rushing TD, Seattle

First Field Goal - NE

First Half Winner - NE

First Turnover Lost - NE, Int

Passing Leader - Brady

Receiving Leader - Kearse

Rushing Leader - Lynch

First Beer - Bud Light

First Soda - Coke

First Car - Ford

First Chip - Tostitos

First Pizza - Pizza Hut

Greg: First of all, no offense to ESPNU, but how did this game get bumped this far down the totem pole? I’ve never really followed the X Games, but I guess they get good ratings since ESPN keeps bringing them back. They just have ESPN2 written all over them, which instead will be airing Stanford vs Arizona, which has the higher ranked team, but will not be the more entertaining game. I admittedly have not watched much of the Hoosiers this season, so make sure you read the first paragraph by Travis for some deeper analysis of them. What I do know is that they are 12th in the country in points per game, and 13th in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive efficiency. That means they can score, which typically leads to more exciting games (again see the write up by Travis for more on who will be doing the scoring).

The one team that I have watched extensively this season is Maryland. They have not made the tourney since I graduated in 2010, but it was the worth the wait for a team like this one. Melo Trimble is the best freshman I have ever seen play at Maryland (note that this only goes back to the 2006 season since I did not closely follow them before matriculating – always wanted to work that word into a post). He can shoot the three as he showed last weekend against Sparty, but he is also tenacious at driving and getting to the line. He is ninth in the country in free throws attempted, and is knocking down 88.4% of those attempts.

In fact, the Terps are 13th in the country in free throw percentage, making 75.5% (Testudo Times had a good article about how crucial the improvement at the line has been for the Terps).

While Trimble has been amazing, I would be remiss if I did not remark on the impact of Dez Wells and Jake Layman. Wells is the senior leader that anchors many great teams, outside of Kentucky. As he showed in the Double OT game at Sparty in late December, he is not afraid of the big shot, and is more than capable of making it. He missed a month due to a broken wrist, but appears fully healthy now. Layman has taken a huge step forward this season. Last year, he had glimpses of promise when he would tear up weak non-conference opponents, but this season he has translated those skills to big games as well. His height and ball handling abilities give the Terps tons of options with their rotation.

Given that I am also a fan of Syracuse, I just need to be on record that Trimble and Layman remind me of Tyler Ennis and Jerami Grant, and I am very worried both will leave after this season just like their Orange counterparts did last season (if you equate Wells to CJ Fair then the similarities just get more disheartening).

All conference road games are hard; the Terps had an excellent example of that against Illinois earlier this season. I think the Illini loss will actually benefit the Terps in this game. With so many young players being an important part of the rotation, there is a chance they overlooked Illinois. Now those guys know that they can’t take any conference games lightly, and will be on full alert for the Hoosiers. As Travis will mention, the Terps have really been buckling down on defense lately. I expect that to continue tonight, but even if the Hoosiers get the high-scoring game they want, Maryland is not afraid of playing in the 80’s. It will be close, but I like the Terps.

Travis: Indiana is a bit of a mystery.  After a weak non-conference campaign including a terrible loss at home versus Eastern Washington, The Hoosiers have since gotten off to a solid 4-1 start in conference.  They have 3 victories against ranked opponents this season, but all 3 teams have now fallen out of the top-25.   One thing is clear though, they want to maximize possessions and keep the score in the upper 80s.  The lack of interior depth prevents Indiana from playing any real defense, so at worst tonight’s game should be high scoring and entertaining.  Like Maryland, Indiana is led by a freshman guard.  James Blackmon, along with junior Yogi Ferrell, make up a deadly backcourt.  Ferrell (pictured below) is lightning quick off the dribble, and one of the better passers in the league.  Blackmon is a deadly shooter, and has a knack for drawing fouls going to the hoop.  Pair the two with super athletic swingman Troy Williams and Indiana has a solid trio all of whom can go off for 20+ points on any night.  The key to this game will be Maryland’s versatility to play at all different speeds along with their depth of versatile defenders.

It seems that Maryland has been stuck in grind it out games as of late.  Some people might forget that early in the season Maryland simply spread the floor with 4 shooters and lit teams from all over.  As conference play has started, Maryland has relied on strong defense and rebounding.  Timely shooting along with Dez Wells, Melo Trimble, and Jake Layman’s ability to drive and draw contact has been their formula on offense lately.  Indiana’s lack of interior defenders should not change that strategy too much.  The Terps still do not have a back to the basket scorer on the post, but Dodd, Graham, and Cekovsky are all capable finishers.  The key for Maryland will be their flexibility on defense.  Layman is a solid matchup for Troy Williams especially with rim protection behind him.  Layman needs to continue to rebound well because Williams can really work the offensive glass.  Wells, Pack, Trimble, and Nickens should be able to take turns on Ferrell and Blackmon.  Maryland’s 10-man rotation should be a huge advantage on the defensive end.

Obviously heading into Assembly Hall will be a tough test for the young Terrapins, but they have already proved they can go on the road and win a tough conference game.  I have not seen a spread for the game, but I expect something right around pick’em.

Travis Kellegrew and Chiggins - No introduction necessary as these guys write more frequently than some of the other Bros.

Marcus Hadley - Marcus is no stranger to guest picks as his Pack have been in the playoffs a lot since the dawn of BBP. For the new readers, he attended the University of Maryland with the Bros. We are thankful to have Marcus’s insight as he is too superstitious to pick a winner, but he always brings a Packers nugget no one else could.

Zach Calhoun - Zach is a childhood friend of mine. He joined the guest writer at the best possible time for him. As an avid Seahawks fan, he always has a lot to say and spoiler alert - it’s never about the Seahawks losing. In hindsight, I should not have written so much about the NFC game, knowing that Zach would match my length.

Ben Jackson - One of three BC grad students making his BBP debut. Ben attended #BCTechTrek with me the first week of January, and he may have even out-Tweeted me. Judging by his demeanor leading up the Ravens game, Ben is not worried about this week one bit.

Connor Downey - Another BC debut, Connor also attended #BCTechTrek with me. While most of the blogosphere is speculating about whether Connor and Morgan Dove are an item after their romantic pictures in Napa Valley, I am more concerned about his Pats knowledge.

Ben Burtt - The final BC debut. Ben exhibited his football prowess early in our friendship by winning the inaugural BC vs BU MBA Fantasy Football league. Granted he was aided by fellow Bro Jay, who drafted his team based on Ben’s cheat sheet, but nonetheless, Ben guided the squad to a one loss season and championship.

 Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)

Greg: This is my first article all postseason, so you know it’s going to be a beast (although I will toot my own horn for being 2-0 in Twitter picks on Wild Card Saturday - maybe my best analysis is limited to 140 characters….nah!). I wrote a lot about this game, and then deleted some of it, and then wrote some more, and still don’t feel a strong conviction either way. Here’s my final thought process.

Lesson from Week 1 => Expect lots of running: Seattle won in Week 1 because they had 207 rushing yards compared to Green Bay’s 80. I expect Seattle to have a similar dedication to the run, but the discrepancy will be much smaller this time. In four of their previous six games, the Packers have faced the Patriots, Bills, Lions and Cowboys defenses (all in the top 11 rush defenses). Eddie Lacy averaged 99 yards in those four games - never going below 97. Much of that success is due to an improved offensive line, which will be especially noticeable from Week 1 when their center was making his NFL debut, and their best tackle was lost in the second quarter. Lean => This makes me lean towards low scoring and a close game.

Most important unit in this game => Seattle LB’s: I want to make sure I give Bobby Wagner the shoutout he deserves. It is no coincidence that Stella Seattle got their groove back when he returned from injury. K.J. Wright is unheralded and Bruce Irvin will be giving a gimpy Aaron Rodgers all kinds of trouble coming off the edge. I believe in them much more than their Green Bay counterpart - although I do think the idea of Clay Matthews shadowing Russell Wilson is a very good one. Even though I like Lacy to be big, I see someone in this unit making a game-changing play. Lean => More evidence for the Under, but shifting towards Seattle.

Aaron Rodgers’ health => Overrated: I’m not sure if I truly believe this, but I like to be contrarian, so I’m going with it. Yes, Packers fans would prefer to have a healthy Rodgers, but there just aren’t very many scrambling opportunities against the Seattle defense. Just look at how they were able to limit Cam Newton last weekend. They have so much speed at every position that it is hard to get outside the pocket against them even with a mobile QB. They don’t blitz much, so I don’t think Rodgers will be too impacted by not being able to avoid pressure as well. It will be tough to assess the overall impact of the injury since it’s hard to tell how much it impacts his throws, but I do not believe it will be the top talking point exiting this game. Lean => Positive for Pack and Over.

Gut call => Seahawks and Under 47: Even though I believe Lacy will have a strong game, and that Rodgers won’t be too limited, I just can’t get myself to pick against Seattle. I believe in their swagger. It’s the reason why I took them at 5/1 to win the Super Bowl in mid-December even though futures bets are rarely good value, and it’s the reason I can’t get myself to write Packers +7.5 (I guess I can write it, but still not my pick). My gut also says there will be at least one huge passing play in this game. It makes me nervous about a backdoor cover and/or Over, but my sleeper call is that the play is a bomb to Kevin Norwood that gets Seattle the lead to start the third quarter and ultimately win them the game.

Jay: Packers -  I’m slightly offended that my picks aren’t listed 1st. I am in a dangerous spot here because I actually think the Seahawks will win but not cover. I generally don’t like to take dogs I don’t think will win outright. I think the game will be very low scoring because the Packers will lean on Lacy, and the Seahawks will also rely heavily on their running game. There are 2 good defenses in the game, and it has a decent chance of being rainy. Points will be at a premium, and I just can’t lay 7 and half in what I expect to be a close, hard-fought game. The Seahawks have been pretty quietly facing a ton of mediocre to terrible quarterbacks, and they may not be able to handle Rodgers, especially if he is mobile. That’s why the injury concern is so crucial. I also had a joke lined up about Aaron Rodgers, but Marcus has already used it later in the article. Instead enjoy these cat/football puns http://deadspin.com/kitten-bowl-player-names-ranked-1679927507

Logan: Seahawks - I haven’t written any articles in quite a while either and with my horse out of the fight this year, maybe I’ll turn to covering the upcoming cricket world cup… In any event I disagree with Greg about the Aaron Rodgers injury and that’s my catalyst for backing the Hawks. They’re going to tee off on a hobbled Rodgers.  Without his famed mobility he won’t be able to escape the pass rush and that’s going to hurt their game a lot. This isn’t the Dallas secondary after all, it’s the best in the business and they will make him pay for any mistakes.

Andrew: Seahawks - I’m with Earl Thomas here, Rodgers is faking! This game is quite worrisome, but I don’t even want to think about the prospect of Green Bay in the Super Bowl and Marcus being happy. To me, 7 is too much, and I hate laying it, but I can’t bring myself to pick the Packers lest I pull some kind of weird double reverse mojo and they end up winning. Long story short, go to Greg for analysis (or buy his book, damn he writes a lot), go to me for non-sensical ramblings about how much the Packers suck. Oh, and Rodgers? He sucks too. Let’s just hope I’m better at picking games than Greg Anthony is at picking prostitutes. Go Hawks!

Chiggins:  Seahawks - The Cowboys defense has been playing well lately, but they still have nothing on the Seahawks D.  The Seattle pass rush will be able to capitalize on Rodgers’ immobility like Dallas couldn’t.  When you go through this matchup point by point, the only area where I see a clear advantage for Green Bay would be amongst the wide receivers.  Seattle, however, has a clear advantage at running back, the whole defense, and the home field advantage of the 12th man.  Even at quarterback, I don’t see an injured Aaron Rodgers being much better than Russell Wilson.  Until I see someone that is able to hang with this defense when they are playing like this and at home and giving single digits, I will take Seattle and lay the points.

Travis: Green Bay - Although Rodgers is visibly banged his numbers did not really suffer last week against Dallas.  Another week’s rest should only help, and I think he can dig deep and make a big play when he needs to.  Seattle thrives off turnovers especially to drive their blowouts.  If Green Bay doesn’t shoot themselves, I think this remains a one possession game.  The Packers defense has been improving, and quite frankly I do not believe in anyone on the Seahawks offense not named Marshawn Lynch.  This spread was 5 in the regular season.  Both teams have been up and down at times.  I think there is 2.5 points of value here.

Marcus: Greg read me like a book, I won’t pick a winner but do think the Packers at a minimum will cover.  Green Bay’s defense has been playing well since Clay moved inside.  Many people are asking about the health of Aaron’s calf but I think Olivia Munn has been giving it a good rub.  Biggest question for me is Green Bay’s ability to force third and longs.  If they do, they have a chance.  If not, could definitely be a boat race.

Zach: To all my fans out there, I have returned. My 2014 cameos on this blog proved to be spot on, and I’m hoping for a most excellent sequel. This game means a lot to me. The Seahawks have suffered two brutal playoff losses to Green Bay in the last 15 years. My first taste of playoff football came in 2003, when my all time favorite player, Matt Hasselbeck led an upstart Seahawks team into Lambeau looking to do the impossible. Hasselbeck had served as Brett Favre’s understudy for a few seasons out of Boston College, and was now firmly in control of his own team. He played an incredible game that day...slinging the ball all over the field, and completing two passes down to the 1 yard line that Shaun Alexander easily punched into the endzone. We all know how that game ended. I’ve never had a problem with Matt’s call during the OT coin toss...brash...confident...I loved him for it. What I do have a problem with, is how much flak he catches for that interception that Al Harris took to the house. He wore the blame for that like a champ, but everything I have heard over the years since, indicates that Hass called an audible at the line, and Alex Bannister ran the wrong route, resulting in the easy pick for the Predator.

The 2nd loss took place in the Divisional Round of the 07 playoffs. Seattle were a heavy underdog in this game. Matt Hasselbeck had carried them through the regular season when the running game fell flat on it’s face. I had confidence that Matt would avenge the 03 loss, and even put a couple shekels on this game in a bet with some of the Hawks doubters. Seattle couldn’t have started off any hotter...opening up a 14-0 lead before the Cheesheads had made it back to their seats with their curds and beer. Alas...Favre would strike down his former protege once more in a snow game that only saw Seattle score 3 more points.

I mention these two losses, because it’s important for me to hold things in the proper perspective. I loved those Seahawk teams...they were scrappy, underrated, unappreciated, and at times...overachieving. In essence...they were the complete opposite of the Seahawk teams we have seen in this Pete Carroll-Russell Wilson era. What we are looking at is a juggernaut….a team that has held a lead in every game Russell Wilson has ever played. This team employs one of the all time great defenses the league has ever seen. Think about it...one of the greatest of all time. They have finished first place in total yards and points allowed for the last 3 seasons...an unprecedented feat. When we think about the modern day defenses that belong on that GOAT list...inevitably, we all come up with the same 3 teams...85 Bears, 2000 Ravens, 2002 Buccs. What do all of those teams have in common? One SB title...that is all. IMO, the Legion of Boom era Seahawks have already surpassed all three of those teams. Any doubters will be forced to recognize that opinion as fact should they win ring #2...let alone make it to another SB (which all 3 of those teams failed to do).

Do the Packers have a chance to win this game? I will answer that question with a most dominant fact that often goes overlooked: The Seahawks have not lost a playoff game in Quest/Century Link Field since 2004...that painful loss to an 8-8 Rams team (led by Marc Bulger) is also the only home playoff loss that they have ever suffered on the Quest/Clink Field Turf. In my opinion...the Packers have no chance to win this game. Aaron Rodgers is great...the Seahawks at home in the playoffs are great...uhhh...greater. Russell Wilson will find a way to create big plays...he always does. The real question is, “What will Aaron Rodgers do in the passing game?” A healthy Aaron Rodgers has averaged below 7 Y/A (career average 8.2) in his two previous starts vs. the LOB. Will an injured Aaron Rodgers find a way to rise above those Checkdown Charlie performances? The toughest factor for me to determine is whether or not Seattle will cover the -7.5. To which I offer up a resounding YES! I’m all in. If they win, they’re gonna win big. Thanks again to Greg “Best User Coverage in Madden History” Adelsberger for inviting me back. Hope you are all on the right side of this one.

GO HAWKS

Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots (-7)

Greg: Pats and Over 54. I’m hoping to have a strong contingent of BC Pats fans write about this game, and I already wrote a bunch about the NFC, so let’s keep this short and sweet. I do believe in Andrew Luck, but I do not believe in the Colts D. I did not get to see last week’s game (damn you NFL app for not working on my flight), but I’m inclined to believe the masterful performance by their D was equal parts Peyton Manning laying egg and them playing well. Tom Brady doesn’t lay playoff eggs, so the Pats will put up their points. Luck will keep the Colts around, and the backdoor is always open with Indy, but I see this as a great team vs a good team, so I am comfortable laying the touchdown.

Jay: Colts - Some may call this a reverse jinx pick. They may be half right. I have myself equal parts worried and confused. I’ve seen information showing me the Pats will rely heavily on the running game, but then I also assume Belichik will zig when everyone expects him to zag. I have seen the storyline circulating about the Pats “having Indy’s number,” but it’s also hard to beat the same team twice in 1 year. There is also the revenge factor from not only this year’s game but also last year’s playoff game that I attended. Early on in the year, I selected Indy as my darkhorse candidate to represent the AFC in the superbowl. I kind of abandoned that as the year went on, but now it’s kind of eating at the back of my mind. It seems like for every pro I come up with a con. With the potential for rain and cold and a lot of running (even Indy is running it more and checking it down with the emergence of Boom Herron), I’ll take the points. Bonus pick: 2 team-7 point teaser GB +14.5 and Colts/Pats under 61

Logan: Colts - I can barely bring myself to think about the AFC championship game. I’m still minorly depressed about my boy Peyton so I’ll keep this brief and just take the points.  Luck just has a way of staying in games and that will serve him well here even though I think Gronk will be too much and the Pats win the game.

Andrew: Colts - I’m seem to remember Logan being a Colts fan in 2006-2007, so it’s a bit confusing why he’s depressed here. Anyway, the story of this game is the Colts D is bad. Really bad. The word is Laron Landry will be assigned to Gronk, which makes me wonder if they’ve ever watched Landry play. Asking Landry to cover is like asking Sneakers O’Toole to take his sneakers off...ain’t gonna happen. So why am I picking the Colts? Because I like Andrew Luck, and I’m desperately hoping he’s not one year away and his time is now. Because I can’t stand that robot Bill Belichick and the prospect of him at media day again is depressing. But most important, and I can’t stress this enough, because Jay will be absolutely insufferable if the Pats get to another Super Bowl. Go Colts!

Chiggins:  Colts - I like the Pats to win, but I think that Andrew “Back-Door Cover” Luck to keep this game close.  I agree with McGowan that the Colts D in bad, but they actually looked pretty good last week against the Broncos, so I don’t think that the Pats will be able to score at will.  I also think that Boom Herron has emerged lately to actually be a pretty good option out of the backfield.  I still think that Brady, Gronk, and the Pats D are enough that the Pats will win, but I think this will be a close game.  The Colts are on their way to being perennial contenders under Luck and the Pats are probably at or past their peak with Brady, but I think it’s just a year early for them to actually win.  I’ll take the points.

Travis: Pats - Sportscenter just did a little piece comparing Coby Fleener and Gronk.  That is laughable.  The regular season was closer than it ended up, but until young Andrew Luck and the Colts can prove otherwise, I will pick the Patriots to pound them everytime.  I think the Pats have an advantage at nearly every position.  Luck is great, but he is always good for a couple lob balls interceptions.  Just last week the Patriots had 2 lob ball interceptions.  The conditions could get a little iffy later which might play into New Englands run game which has torched the Colts the last 2 times they have played.  The mind might say their is value on the Colts, but history says the Patriots will dominate.

Ben J: Pats - I am one of those BC Pats fans that Greg mentioned. It was an honor and a privilege to be asked to contribute this week. Greg expected a homer pick and I delivered… and I’ll also say that this is at least a two to three touchdown game. Only reason why this is close is if the Pats really miss Stork at center. Plugging him into the line after Brady almost got killed in the first few games of the year has made new offensive line coach Dave DeGuglielmo look like a genius. If the offensive line holds up without Stork, look for Brady to dominate in play action. If you think the Pats will run all over the Colts again like they did in week 11, Belichick has other plans. Look for Brady to throw over 40 times and with the Colts likely to force the long ball like they did against Peyton last week, watch for LaFell over the top or Vereen in the wheel route. The defense starts and ends with Revis. After a couple tough plays last week, he will be on his game. Luck will be able to find his tight ends but otherwise I like the matchups on the outside. Indy running game poses little threat. Yeah, I’m a homer… enjoy the game.

Connor: Pats - Even without Stork under center, and Tom Brady still listed as questionable (funny joke, Belichick), the Pats shouldn’t have a problem putting up points against the mediocre Colts’ D. Though it more than likely won’t be a blowout akin to their first meeting this season, the Pats will still win big in Foxborough.

Alabama

After Bama’s loss to Ole Miss, I was shocked to hear that a lot of established CFB writers were saying the dynasty was over and that they weren’t going to make it out of the SEC West. I thought that was a bit over the top. They then went on to only beat Arkansas by one point that week, and I started to think the writers had a point. They quickly got back on track and they are favored to win their 4th national title in 6 years.

TCU and Baylor

I predicted that the TCU Baylor game could possibly have an impact on the playoff. Turns out it has. The committee currently has TCU in and Baylor out, despite Baylor beating them head-to-head and the records being equal. If they both win this week, it will be interesting to see if they swap in Baylor for TCU. In my opinion, Baylor has to be in over TCU even though TCU might be the better team right now.

Picks:

SEC Championship Game

#1 Alabama (-14.5) vs #16 Missouri

Missouri moved to the SEC at just the right time. The SEC EAST has been atrocious, allowing them to win two strait SEC EAST Titles in their first two seasons. Missouri lost to Indiana (1-7 in the Big Ten) this season, and I refuse to believe they’re good. Bama doesn’t need to win impressively this week to lock in a spot, but I’ll still pick them to cover.

ACC Championship Game

#4 Florida State (-4) vs#11 Georgia Tech

I like Georgia Tech, but I just can’t pick against Florida State. Jameis Winston is the best QB in College Football, and I think he just finds a way to get it done again this week.

Greg – It is always hard to back the option offense because it is so one-dimensional, but the Yellow Jackets are damn good at that one dimension. Jameis Winston-related distractions are not new for the team, but these are still just college kids, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they are mentally feeling it. Physically they have some key players missing on offense, and I believe they finally go down. A run heavy team is the perfect way to take advantage of an early lead and just milk the clock, which it appears FSU likes to test its opponents to see if they can do.

Big Ten Championship Game

#13 Wisconsin (-4) vs #5 Ohio State

JT Barrett is out for the season after breaking his ankle. That probably eliminates them from the playoff even if they win this week and someone in the top 4 falters - Also known as the Kenyon Martin effect. I think Wisconsin will beat Ohio State by a touchdown.

#9 Kansas State (+7.5) at #6 Baylor

I like Kansas State - Bill Snyder just continues to put together solid football teams. I think they are too good to not keep this within a touchdown.  Baylor will also be playing on edge because they need to win to leap frog TCU.

CFB Playoff

1 Alabama

2 Oregon

3 TCU

4 Florida State

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5 Ohio State

6 Baylor

7 Arizona

8 Michigan State

9 Kansas State

Alabama and Florida State are in. I don’t see them losing this weekend (even though the FSU game will be entertaining). Oregon should be a lock with their dominating performance against another Top 10 team last night.

TCU and Baylor is so interesting. I have mentioned it a few times above, but the committee has quite the dilemma. TCU is probably the better team right now, but Baylor did beat them head-to-head. I’m not exactly sure what the right answer is. A win by Kansas State is the only solution to the problem.

Who – Chicago Bears (5-6) @ Detroit Lions (7-4)

What – The Thanksgiving stalwart. The Lions got off the Thanksgiving shneid last year, beating the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers. Prior to that they had lost nine Turkey Day games in a row. Despite a two-game losing streak in the current season, Detroit has a good chance of building a holiday winning streak. They have played better at home this season, while the Bears have struggled mightily on the road. The Bears defense will be tested against a strong passing attack, but will at least not have to deal with Reggie Bush, who is out with an injury.

Where – Ford Field, Detroit, MI. Detroit has hosted a Thanksgiving game more than any other team, and the city is being treated to a second game in four days as Detroit hosted the displaced Bills-Jets game on Monday due to the massive amount of snow in Buffalo.

When – 12:30 PM est on CBS (on CBS, which traditionally broadcasts AFC games because both afternoon games are NFC-NFC matchups).

Why (the Lions always play on Thanksgiving) – The Lions have been playing on Thanksgiving since 1934. The team was mediocre and struggling to drawn an audience. The owner of the franchise was a radio station owner, and decided that a good marketing campaign would be to play a game on Thanksgiving. The game was broadcast on many radio stations and sold out the Lions stadium. Based on that success, the Lions have played on Thanksgiving ever since.

How (should you bet this game) – The line is Lions (-7.5) and the over/under is 45.5. That O/U just doesn’t seem high enough with the passing attacks involved in this game. Both teams have great WR duos, athletic TE’s and RB’s that can catch the ball out of the backfield (don’t sleep on Joique Bell and Theo Riddick). Sure each team has erratic QB’s, but that will just help set up short fields for the other guy. It is hard to trust either team given how inconsistent they have been this year, but I definitely trust that points will be scored. Give me the Bears and the OVER.

Who – Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) @ Dallas Cowboys (8-3)

What (is on the line) – First place in the NFC East. I believe the Cowboys saved their season with their comeback win last week against the Giants. That would have been their third loss in four games (with the only win coming against the Jags). The stories of how they were bound to finish 8-8 again despite a great start would have been swirling and the team would have been primed for self-destruction. Instead, they showed resilience and came back even after the Giants dominated the beginning of the game and had the stadium buzzing with ODB’s amazing catch. Now I believe they are ready to make a run at best record in the NFC instead of .500. The Eagles have a lot to prove in this game. Sure they have a great record, but they have only beaten one team with a winning record and have lost to their other three opponents with winning records. This is a big statement game for the Birds.

Where – AT&T Stadium (aka Jerry World), Arlington, Texas.

When – 4:30 PM est on FOX

Why (you should ignore that the Eagles are 5-0 on Thanksgiving) – They haven’t played on Thanksgiving since 2008. The media loves giving irrelevant stats so I’m assuming they’ll mention that the Eagles have never lost on Thanksgiving. The problem is that I would be surprised if more than a handful of players were left over from the 2008 team (if any). I can guarantee none of the players from 1989 team are still around, which is their most recent game prior to 2008.

How (you should pick this game) – The line is Cowboys (-3) and the over/under is 55. The Cowboys defense has gotten a lot of praise this season. I think it is deserved relative to how terrible everyone thought it would be, but not relative to the best defenses in the league. They have started to show weakness in the past few weeks and I think the Eagles will be able to put up some points today. With that being, the Eagles defense has gotten no praise and that is warranted. The only thing this defense does well is score points. Therefore, I also like this game to go over, despite the high total. Eagles 30, Cowboys 34.

Who – Seattle Seahawks (7-4) @ San Francisco 49ers (7-4)

What – Second place in the NFC West. The Arizona Cardinals are surprisingly two games up in this division so there’s a good chance that only one of these teams makes the playoffs. Tonight’s game will have a lot to do with determining which team it is (although they do meet again in Week 15, so the loser certainly isn’t out of it). Lots of people say that this rivalry has replaced the Ravens-Steelers as the most physical in the NFL; however, this one will have to be a slugfest to live up to that after Pittsburgh and Baltimore renewed their rivalry earlier in the season.

Where – Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA. The Niners wanted to build the most technologically advanced stadium in the NFL when they opened Levi’s Stadium this year. They may have, but in general the reviews have not been that good. Let’s see how it looks in primetime tonight.

When - 8:30 PM est on NBC – those without NFL Network can rejoice that all three games are on the major networks!

Why (you should watch) – It is tempting to follow the rest of the family to the movies, but let’s be honest, you have already seen Mocking Jay, and there is nothing else out that is worth skipping this game (gotta love that the Hunger Games movies are coming out at the same time each year and I can just recycle my lines from last Turkey Day).