BBUpdoot's BB Updates

HOH: Reilly

Big developments last night and this morning have been happening. For starters, two alliances have officially formed:

Bye Bye Bitches= Cirie, Izzy, Bowie, Felicia, Meme, with Jared obviously included if not officially informed of the name and Hisam as someone attached to this group but not officially in it yet via knowing it exists.

Handful= Jag, Blue, Reilly (the core trio) Matt, Cameron (layer two) make up the main group. America, Cory, Jared also pulled in on an outer ring.

Critically this morning Jared was informed about Handful, which he immediately told Izzy about. This means Bye Bye Bitches will have ALL of the information they need in the house regarding lay of the land. Veto draw is happening so this information is not FULLY out there yet, but it is inevitable.

With only Luke, Red and house target Kirsten on the outs of both structures, we could see things really ramp up around this veto. Cirie has already put in some light work on Red and Kirsten, but Luke is a total free agent though he technically believes he's lumped in with the Handful crowd.

Reilly's probably keeping Felicia and Kirsten OTB, with Kirsten as the target.

Hisam let Reilly know about Kirsten's rumor about her and Matt, which has really made Kirsten's target, stick.

Reilly's named the entire house more or less as her allies/possible alliance.

Cirie has determined her core allies will be Izzy/Felicia/Bowie.

Cory's target has shrunk, as while some people don't trust him, Reilly sees benefit in saving him.

Reilly/Jag duo is very close. Lots of chatter about a group of them, Jared, Matt, Blue, with others named at various times to be included (Cory, America, Cameron all mentioned for this).

Luke rapidly losing trust with people.

Cirie had really good talks with Reilly and Blue, winning their trust.

Things that have happened on feeds of note that are important:

Phalanx Five= Night one alliance of Reilly/Luke/Matt/Jared/Kirsten, initiated by Kirsten. This alliance is already kind of dead.

Izzy knows Jared is Cirie's son. No one else does.

Reilly/Jag very close relationship as a duo already.

Cirie's plan is to form a Brigade structure of a core four alliance with four satellite allies. So far Felicia and Bowie are likely included in a planned foursome. Kirsten/Mecole were the initial options but the house is collectively turning on Kirsten after she began exposing various convos/alliances and making some conclusions on various alliances that aren't wholly accurate.

Cory is a target for basically everyone in the house.

Jared/Matt/Luke bro alliance

Reilly won HOH, and gets to remove 2/4 nominees from the block.

So you are wanting to watch feeds for the first time, but are a little intimidated by the idea of tuning in at all hours just to catch a game talk. When is the best time to watch? How do you know when to log in and see what's going on? How do you avoid missing everything while you're out touching grass? Follow under the cut for a live feed primer!

A small rant, because I just find it so incredibly galling the lie propagated by BBCan production. The company line is that feeds were cancelled for mental health purposes, which in itself is nonsense. Ignoring the fallacy of that argument however, there's too much evidence that supports a more realistic reason for the feed removal. To just compile that evidence here:

The cast does not seem aware that there are no live feeds, as indicated by conversations regarding 'Canada watching' and cam talks.

The cast is still getting scolded by production as though feeds are live (no cursing for example).

The digital daily page alluded initially to the feeds being on, only changed after Twitter pointed out the error.

The live feed tab, which previously existed even after the announcement about the feeds, was removed.

Feeds were cancelled for the stupid sponsors, and even worse I think it is pretty clear that the feed cancellation decision was made AFTER the digital dailies were designed. The dailies are intended to help promote the sponsors by finding more ways to squeeze in ads and have their products in the house shown in brand-friendly ways. Could be why we have extended cuts of HGs cooking and cleaning, ensuring that nothing shown would be considered a risk for sponsoring what can often be a salacious show with lying, backstabbing, fighting and prejudice behavior on display. In order to ensure the dailies get watched, the feeds would need to go or there would be no point. With social media passing around clips and feed updates, no one would be watching the dailies, which I'm sure are discussed in the contracts with these brands.

6. Owen

If there's one thing the show is telling us about Owen, it is that he's not winning. He's a severe underdog, but his success is going to come in the form of getting to the F3 in the first place. There's just no chance IMO that it is happening in terms of a W though.

5. Karla

Really bad for Karla that the most personal strategy talk we've gotten from her is now about her idol and distrusting someone she shouldn't be. Just feels like a ramping up of her edit before her boot. Not seeing it.

4. Gabler

Speaking of not seeing something, Gabler's been given a dopey edit again and that's not a good sign.

3. Jesse

Jesse's way out in front-if he gets to FTC he's winning and there's no question that's the case it seems. That being said it is too obvious, isn't it? In a new era of Survivor that loves editing misdirection I think this is a giant red herring. Jesse's boot is going to pave the way for the winner.

2. Cody

I don't have much to say that I haven't already said, but I think the frontrunner of the season is really emerging and there's a gap forming IMO between Cody and the person above him, who is...

Cassidy

7. Owen

Absolutely drawing dead. Beginning to think he's in the FTC, but in terms of winning he's had no strategic development, has no storyline, has no strategic insight.

6. Karla

Karla's a major player strategically, but we get no insight on her strategy. She is discussed as a big time player that has to go at some point but we just aren't seeing enough of her perspective anymore.

5. Sami

This episode absolutely buried Sami and I don't think he can recover. On a reward with family letters and doesn't get any personal content, has his game telegraphed and clocked, being discussed as a piece to move but not an actual player and targeting a player that got a good bit of strategic content last episode. Not good.

4. Gabler

By virtue of everyone's edit below him getting worse and worse, Gabler's looking better and better. His prejury edit was abysmal, but his merge edit has been strong and he has a clear story as a player. I still don't think Gabler's getting to the end-maybe falling just shy of F3- but he's not out of it yet.

3. Jesse

There's major set up for Jesse's blindside, but if it doesn't come then it means Jesse is another telegraphed winner the likes of the pre-40 era winners.

2. Cody

Needs to start getting more personal content, but with Jesse being primed for eventually going to jury he's got a great edit that could swell once Jesse's gone.

Cassidy

There's not nearly as much to go on, but we can probably chalk this episode up to being one where a player significantly on the outs goes home.

The NTOS is very misleading in that it is trying to set up that the target is changing constantly, however it is important to realize that most of this content is pre-immunity challenge. We can tell that from the promo pictures and their clothing. There is a reward challenge this episode in which three players will be going to a sanctuary and getting family videos and letters. Most of the content is from before or after that challenge, but not before the immunity challenge which is a card-stacking challenge.

There's really only one scene that we know for sure is post-IC, and that is the shot of Gabler talking to Karla about going after Jesse and Cody. If you look closely you can see that Gabler is clean-shaven compared to a previous shot where Gabler is seen telling Owen that "they're" after him. Clearly, Gabler goes on the reward trip.

Speaking of which, there's promos heavily featuring a crying Jesse which indicates he goes on the trip too. Makes sense that the only two tribe mates with children would be brought along by someone.

The question then becomes who is the third person that goes? It does not seem to be Cody, who has a scene talking to Cassidy that seems pre-RC or during the night these three are gone. Noelle winning this challenge seems unlikely given there's a shot of her taking a bad fall in a promo and this doesn't seem like a course where she could thrive. The challenge is unwinding enough of a rope to complete the obstacle course...it will require speed.

That really narrows it down to Owen and Sami, and of these two Owen looks a bit cleaner than usual in his confessional which could indicate he won.

What can we learn from all of this? We can learn that of all of the names said in the NTOS, only two names are clearly mentioned post-IC: Jesse and Cody. That being said we know Owen's name is out there from Gabler telling him that...and we know he probably got that name from Jesse and Cody which makes the threat credible. We also know that the duo running things both hold idols...it will be incredibly hard to boot them out and it seems like both Cassidy and Sami are still in some way working with them.

Of the other names mentioned, Noelle's name is said by Sami in response to a question Jesse must have asked. We cannot be certain Sami is pushing Noelle as a target. Similarly we cannot be certain Noelle is really pushing Sami in her confessional.

8. Owen

Owen's got no plot now James is gone. There's a good chance that we see remnants of the seven form back up (Cassidy/Jesse/Cody/Karla locking back in, Karla has Sami, Cody/Jesse have Gabler) which leaves him a severe outlier. Owen's edit was highly circumstantial this episode, and that's not good for him.

7. Noelle

The steal-a-vote gone, Noelle's sole purpose is gone. The fact her move gets muted in favor of crediting Karla and Sami...not good at all.

6. Gabler

Gabler's got one more ali-gabler moment coming and I think it will target Jesse/Cody, but still not winning IMO.

5. Karla

Karla had a good episode to keep her in the hunt for the end game, but I don't think her content was married to her strategy enough. We didn't get enough discussion about why she flipped on James, just that she did.

4. Sami

I'm finally starting to worry about Sami's odds here. He's lacking that standout moment where he grips the game by the horns and controls it. He's running out of episodes to break out from the "I wanna make big moves" and then immediately back down from them cycle he's in.

3. Cassidy

Great episode for her; her edit is building back up some steam IMO.

2. Jesse

Jesse's at this spot only because at number one I have..

1: Cody

So I don't have a lot of people in my personal life outside of my family to talk about this with, and it has been hard sometimes to just sit on my feelings when I have been going through one of the biggest mental health transitions of my life.

Since June I've been working to lose weight and I'm currently down 43 pounds. I have a goal to lose 50 by the end of this year, and next year I intend to lose another 50 at least (it'd be nice to lose more than that and get back to the weight I was in high school but really I just want to be comfortably able to shop in stores lol). Anxiety and depression skyrocketed my weight from about 2011-2016 and I've really been taking back my life. I got a long way to go regarding fixing the larger issues with my mental health, but I'm super proud of myself for setting and meeting goals.

I've not been doing anything revolutionary. Just tracking my calories and eating anywhere from 500-700 less than my daily recommended intake. Not depriving myself of food (apart from fast food which was the single biggest addiction I had to get grapple), not following some fad diet...just looking at food labels and going "fuck, I'd rather make a healthier choice." I've been cooking way more, specifically cooking international meals which have made eating healthier a lot more fun to do. Just exploring food options that aren't so stale and basic, and broadening horizons and curtailing my picky eater ways.

I've dropped two pant sizes. I fit way more comfortably into XL tops. And I just FEEL better...I got more energy everyday now. I sleep without tossing and turning from back pain. It has just been a life-altering change in every single way and while I wish I never got to this low point, I'm very proud of myself for overcoming this obstacle.

My next big project is to begin exercising which I simply have not been doing beyond getting steps in. Now that my busiest work season is over I will be walking a lot less in my job so I set a new, ambitious goal of running a 5k by the summer of next year. I found a good program to wean me into it. I feel ready to go, and motivated to do so too.

It sucks that I've withdrawn so much from others due to my mental health struggles that I don't have a ton of people to tell this stuff to. The hardest goal I set for myself is finally seeking therapy for conditions I was diagnosed with as a child...I'm really scared of opening up to the wrong person after my previous experience with therapy and how some people in my life reacted to it. But I'm doing better already, and I'm just really happier as a person for the first time in ages.

Spoilers/speculation off promo material for the upcoming episode.

10. Ryan

Ryan could very well be at the FTC, but he is not winning. The edit is making him a punching bag and is telling us it is ok to laugh at him a little. I find Ryan's oblivious nature endearing...he is such a sincere guy but that isn't going to snag him the win. I don't think anything could make me move Ryan up from last place in the rankings.

9. Owen

Owen's uptick of content only coinciding with him being the new Jeanine is not good. He's got this battle with James coming up, and while I think he's winning that fight it doesn't put him any higher in winner contention. Owen's a sitting duck getting his quick merge arc before he's in jury.

8. Noelle

Noelle's strategic mindset is never at the forefront of the episodes and while she's as much of an underdog as Owen, she's not been given much care with her edit. It really feels like production is just milking her story for as much content as it is worth before she inevitably plays her steal a vote and is eliminated. Feels like Noelle is more of a plot device than a plot point in the season.

7. Gabler

Lots of people hopping on the Gabler train are forgetting how awful his premerge content was. Gabler's maybe the last of the easy boots to go but it really does feel like he'll be going. Nothing last episode really changed things for me, and if he is truly gonna try to suck up to the seven-person alliance I think that's really bad for him.

6. James

James has to be bumped down because last episode was a bad look. Building up a narrative that James is the kingpin of a cocky seven-person squad is awful for him. Combined with the fact things are angled to have us rooting more for Cassidy in the little Coco feud we saw and Owen getting a ton of good content...very worried about James right now.

5. Karla

We are just too far into the season for a winner to not be getting more consistent strategy confessionals. Why is Karla constantly entertaining flips and backing out? Why is she always edited as wanting to go women-strong but then never does? We get no explanations as to why Karla makes the decisions she does. We see she's a great player, but there's no care put into showing Karla's thought process to make her more complex. I just think it is too late to put in a winner storyline for her, but I hope I'm wrong!

4. Cody

This is the first serious contender I got on my list now. I'm finally coming around a little to what others are saying regarding Cody as a contender. He had a great episode despite not needing to be the focus of things. He's a big part of the power structure in the tribe too. My issue is he's still outshined by Jesse and until that changes I'll always at least rank Jesse higher.

3. Cassidy

Having Cassidy in the third slot here is admittedly wishful thinking, but she is the only woman with a shot at winning this IMO. Cassidy didn't have a great episode- she's shown to be the only one against the Jeanine vote and she votes wrong despite likely being aware of how things were going at TC. That being said, we get an explanation behind her incorrect vote that we as viewers not only understand but are expected to support. I think little things like these keep Cassidy clinging on edgically as being a contender.

2. Sami

If Sami isn't the winner then he is production's favorite. He had a great episode despite totally and completely failing to flip the vote...and not only that but backing OUT of the flip and undermining his own mission. Yet Sami gets edited as making a strategic call and not as someone who failed, or as your typical petulant teen that doesn't get taken seriously. Further, as if to prove Sami's backdown on the Ryan vote was the correct call, the edit dunks on Jeanine HARD for no reason with the rare voting confessional played in-episode. Maybe next episode we will see things take a turn and we get some pouting about the failed flip, but Sami's one to watch.

Jesse

Spoilers below the cut for last night's episode!