Agatha Scaggiante - Writing Portfolio

(Originally presented as a TikTok script).

A recession is a big decrease in economic activity and the UK is NOT in one yet, but experts predict that will happen soon. Technically speaking, it’s a recession when there are two quarters in a row of negative growth. And this still hasn’t quite happened, although growth has really slowed down. Practically speaking, the recession will mean fewer jobs and less money-making opportunities. Most people will find money tighter than normal, and if you are trying to save up or buy property, that’s going to be harder as well. Next we’re gonna cover what caused the recession in the first place. 

What caused the UK recession? 

What caused the recession? Reason #1 is that the economy’s recovery after covid looks normal, but the average isn’t telling the whole story.

Actually the recovery was super unbalanced - on average rich people got richer, and poorer people got poorer. And if we look at industry, we see recovery is uneven there too. Pharmaceutical companies did really well, but things like car manufacturing and hospitality are still not recovered, and that’s gonna affect stuff down the line. This uneven recovery is why the high supply and low demand of some things is driving up inflation. 

On top of this there’s a big 2020 shaped gap in the economy that hasn’t been made up for - again the average looks normal for pre-covid levels, but to make up for the covid shutdown it would have had to actually increase by what we lost during that gap. Follow to find out more. 

Reason #2 is that it’s normal for the economy to go through peaks and valleys. On the way up, we all have more spending power and new businesses have space to grow. On the way down, spending gets way tighter and businesses that haven’t been successful end up shutting down. This cycle is normal. The reason this slump is turning into a recession though is from many bad factors combining - follow to find out more.  

Reason number three is that Brexit trade deals have been hurting the economy, with most exporters calling them bad for business. This has been especially bad for food suppliers and manufacturers. Increased costs and red tape from Brexit have forced the economy to slow down, and small businesses have been especially impacted. This means less growth for the UK, and less space for new innovation. 

Reason number four, supply chain issues are also damaging the economy. Russia invading Ukraine has driven up food prices and gas prices worldwide, with the two countries normally producing around 12% of the world’s calories. China’s covid lockdowns have also driven up global costs, and reduced supply of things like electronics and clothing. Overall this means an increase in cost of living and even higher inflation levels in the UK. Follow to find out more! 

Reason number five, there hasn’t been enough done to stop inflation. So the Bank of England is supposed to work with the government and keep inflation rates at around 2%, but currently they are at 9%. Of course, all the factors we listed so far have made this much harder than normal, and the Bank of England is especially blaming the war in Ukraine. But for the economy to recover, improvements in these financial policies are going to have to come as well, no matter how hard we work to fix everything else. 

(Originally presented in video format).

How do we make crypto more sustainable? It’s actually easier than you think! 

Right now, crypto has an insane carbon footprint, with Bitcoin alone using more energy than Argentina. First though, why does Bitcoin even use that much energy to begin with? 

The reason is “mining,” which creates new Bitcoins and verifies transactions. “Miners” are people who run the computer programs to do this, and they are rewarded with Bitcoin for their efforts. Anyone can be a “miner” if they have the right computer equipment. 

With Bitcoin, “miners” compete to be the first to do a piece of work and get the reward of some Bitcoin. This means they end up having to buy supercomputers to stay in the running. And in the end most of what the computer ends up spending energy on is basically a huge meaningless puzzle, called “proof of work.” The big puzzle isn’t the thing that verifies transactions, or creates new Bitcoin; it just keeps the computer busy. This is to make sure the process is too complicated to be overrun by a hacker, basically proving that the “miner” is invested in the process. But it also means computers use up insane amounts of energy creating and regulating bitcoin. 

The good news is, cryptocurrency doesn’t have to work like this! The main issue is the “proof of work” which is just a way to make sure the “miner” isn’t trying to mess with or overload the system. But some big cryptocurrencies, like Solana and Cardano have shifted to something called “proof of stake.” In this system, “miners” just need to prove they own some of the currency and that they have some skin in the game. Plus, they are chosen at random to verify the transactions, so they don’t have to compete with bigger and bigger computers all the time. These cryptocurrencies use a tiny fraction of the energy Bitcoin does, and as energy gets more and more expensive, might be the future of cryptocurrency. 

How is the EU responding to the Ukraine crisis? 

Script with original research,  for a series of videos on TikTok. 

Part 1: 

Austria has been somewhat lax compared to other EU countries - they are refusing to expel Russian envoys without proof of Vienna convention violations, and they are also rejecting sanctions against Russian oil and gas.

Belgium has been vocal in its support, sending arms, welcoming refugees and pledging to accelerate Ukraine’s post-war integration into the EU. However they still haven’t stopped their profitable diamond trade with Russia. 

Bulgaria has been struggling with its strong ties to Russia, with some calling Bulgaria Moscow’s Trojan horse in the conflict. New leader Petkov has been openly condemning the war, and has already fired his foreign defense minister for suggesting Bulgaria shouldn’t. However public opinion is divided and causing controversy.

Part 2: 

Croatia has condemned the war and is welcoming one of the highest volumes of refugees in the EU, despite early reactions to the conflict within their government being mixed. Early in March a Russian drone crashed into Croatia’s capital, leading them to criticize NATO for having a slow reaction to the risk. 

Despite initial apprehension as the war began to break out, the Republic of Cyprus has been accepting sanctions and accepting many refugees. Cyprus has a huge Russian population, and there is tension brewing between Cypriots, Russian immigrants and Ukranian refugees. 

The Czech Republic has been taking in a huge volume of an  estimated 300,000 refugees, and has quietly been sending tanks for Ukraine as well as boosting its own military. 

Part 3:

In March Denmark decided to hold a referendum to reconsider the opt-out clause that has up until now kept the country out of EU common defense policy. This surprising move means Denmark may be trying to take more military responsibility going forward. Denmark has also been accepting high volumes of Ukrainian refugees. 

Estonia  has been taking in modest amounts of refugees, and sending military aid. The country has a high volume of Russian speaking residents stemming from Soviet era migrations. Many Estonians are concerned that the current conflict could spell the possibility of another Russian invasion of Estonia as well. 

Finland has had a historic shift in public opinion, with a majority of the population now supporting Finland joining NATO, something that would have been unthinkable in previous years. The country also fears another invasion from Russia. Finland is highly dependent on Russian gas and oil, and sanctions are expected to hit the economy hard. 

Part 4:

France has been providing Ukraine with a lot of aid, mostly through channels in Poland. However they are also being fairly cagey about what military aid they are sending, possibly due to fear of Russian retaliation down the line. With the election looming Macron’s quick approval of Russian sanctions seems to have worked in his favor, while his rival Le Pen has been scrutinized for ties with Putin and previous policy on refugees. This being said, Macron is far from a guaranteed win. 

Germany has had one of the most surprising reactions to the war, especially considering their lukewarm reaction before it had officially broken out. Now in response, new Chancellor Olaf Scholz, has committed to putting 2% of Germany’s GDP into their military, putting it on track to be one of the strongest militaries in Europe. This is a huge shift from Germany’s previous reluctance for military spending. In addition, Scholz has halted certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline which was to pipe natural gas between Russia and Germany, another unprecedented move.   

Greece was one of the first European nations to announce it would be sending arms to Ukraine, an announcement its citizens have reacted to with surprise. Greece is not accustomed to direct military interventions, and in addition has a history of cultural and political ties with Russia. Local public opinion shows low approval of the Greek government’s intervention, with possible concerns for Greece’s safety going forward. 

Part 5: 

Hungary’s recent election of prime minister Orban has worried EU states, as Orban’s history of strong ties with Russia could divide European policy. Orban has refused to send weapons into Ukraine, or allow other countries to transit weapons for Ukraine through Hungary. He’s also the only EU leader who has openly criticized Ukrainian president Zelenskyi. Hungarian media and public opinion has been notably ambivalent about the war in Ukraine, although there are some 400,000 Ukrainian refugees in the country currently. 

Ireland has been supplying some aid and is welcoming refugees, as well as being vocal in condemnation of the war. Public opinion has shifted towards closer support of joining NATO, but citizens are still not inclined to change Ireland’s historical stance on military neutrality. Ireland is concerned about their food security as a result of surging fertilizer and fuel costs, as well as supply chain disruptions for grains, caused by the war. 

Italy has been supporting sanctions and this week expelled 30 Russian diplomats. The country is more reliant on natural gas for energy than many of its European neighbors, so price hikes are already hitting hard. Policymakers are scrambling to shift fuel reliance to more natural sources.

Part 6: 

Latvia’s close proximity to Russia, as well as its recent history as a part of the Soviet Block makes for an atmosphere of uncertainty, with citizens speculating that the small country could be next up for re-invasion. National guard volunteering has risen, and like the other Baltic states, Latvia’s imports of Russian gas have halted. Latvia is supplying much of the difference to other Baltic states, with reserves of natural gas stored underground. 

Lithuania has declared a state of emergency. Public events or speech in favor of Russian military action have been strictly banned, as well as any information gathering on Lithuanian military or energy infrastructure. Like the other Baltic states, Lithuania is considered one of the most vulnerable parts of NATO right now, and shares concerns about re-invasion. 

Luxembourg has had good diplomatic and economic ties with Russia for a while now, with strong bilateral trade. However they have joined the EU in imposing sanctions and deporting Russian envoys, as well as contributing a hefty 250million Euros in aid. Nonetheless Prime Minister Bettel spoke against fast-tracking Ukraine’s entry to the EU, but said the entry might be possible going forward. 

Part 7: 

Malta has had what seems like a reluctant response to the crisis. After much pushing they have paused granting citizenship to Russians and Belarusians with their golden passport scheme, which grants foreigners EU citizenship for a hefty fee. Many of those granted Maltese citizenship in the past have been Russian oligarchs. However they show no plans of stopping the scheme long-term, and the European commission is proceeding with an infringement case. Although they are technically accepting Ukrainian refugees, Malta has also been back and forth about charging the new arrivals for quarantine hotels. 

Netherlands. The dutch have led a coalition aiming to block Ukraine’s entry to the EU - one of the most vocal EU member states against the move. They have cited respect for EU’s lengthy entry process, as well as worry that Putin may react with anger to the addition. They have been freezing big chunks of Russian assets, and sending Ukraine arms and aids. Together with Canada and the UK, they also announced an “international Ukraine support group,” which apparently aims to provide Ukraine support going forward. 

Poland is having an “I-told-you-so,” moment, after years of warning the EU about the growing threat of Russian invasion. They have had arguably the strongest and most unified response to the crisis, calling for the harshest sanctions and welcoming an astonishing 2 million plus Ukrainian refugees. After recent changes to the Polish court system which are said to undermine judicial independence, Poland was on thin ice with the EU and facing fines from Brussels as well as the freezing of their pandemic recovery fund. Now it’s possible that in light of recent events, Poland may have a case for unfreezing those funds, especially as the weight of supporting the new refugees begins to take its toll. 

Part 8: 

Portugal has been supplying arms, and public opinion appears be in strong support of Ukraine, and in condemnation of the Russian attack. Portugal has also set up programs to welcome refugees. Although Portugal doesn’t trade much with Ukraine or Russia, the economy is set to suffer heavily if the conflict and higher European cost of living bring down tourism. 

Next to Poland, Romania has welcomed the most Ukrainian refugees, more than 690,000, to the surprise of many given their hostile stance on refugees in the past, as well as their history of disputes with Ukraine. In addition to providing safe haven, they have taken on a more active role through military activity, supporting Kyiv and NATO troops. Romania has been hit with an influx of Russian cyber attacks, and many in the country are worried that the conflict could escalate. 

Slovakia has caused a stir by giving Ukraine their Russian-made S-300 air defense system, as part of donations to bolster the Ukrainian military. They have cut down on the Russian media inside the country, and pro-Russian sentiments have dropped steeply since the war began, with Slovakia in the past being known as one of the EU’s most pro-Russian countries. 

Part 9:

Slovenia has been sending aid, and sent its PM Janez Jansa to meet Zelenski in Kyiv to show support, despite security risks. Jansa also supports Ukraine’s fast track into the EU. Slovenia also plans to send diplomats back into Ukraine to show support, a move they say other countries should follow suit on. 

Spain’s already deeply divided government coalition has been rattled by the crisis, with PM Pedro Sánchez’ choice to send lethal weapons to aid Ukraine being heavily criticized by his left-wing coalition partner, Unidas Podemos. The parties have also been butting heads on Spain’s relationship with NATO, with Unidas Podemos being criticized for possibly jeopardizing the relationship. Like most of the EU, Spain’s economy is set to be badly impacted by the war.