In the books it is mentioned that it's better to wait a century between a fledgling and the other, because otherwise the maker's power gets too diluted.
So. 290 thousand vamps by the events of TVL, by Talamasca statistics.
1600 was the number before the Make More Movement (or MMM).
Doing the math of that conversion rate.
I've seen book characters mentioned that weren't bothered by the QotD events because they lived in isolation (haven't gotten to it yet, got stuck with other things). 1600 isn't a precise number of course, too perfect, but we can just assume 1600 is the closer number to active vampires while still considering the existence of outliers.
Now we have met many vamps pre-MMM, 15 in the Paris coven (Armand included, Claudia briefly included), Madeleine wasn't opposed to the coven she was just in terrible circumstances so I'll note her down as possibly part of it, Daciana who tried to make her own coven and failed but it wasn't a choice she had, Lestat who didn't hate the coven but had to leave Paris because of the bad memories and then we've seen turned and lived with three of his fledglings just in New Orleans; of those that preferred NOT to have a coven, we only have Louis, Gabriella (in the books at least she travels a lot on her own), and Antoinette (we don't know if she would have joined a coven but she seemed content with just Lestat, unlike Claudia who wanted to find more of her own). That is a ratio of 3 to 18 vampires who prefer a single companion to the coven dynamic when given the choice!
Apply to 1600, if a sixth of vamps prefer a single companion to a coven, we get 260 non-coven vamps give or take, some may be maker and fledgling pairs, some may be just vamps who met by chance and stuck with eachother.
So that leaves 1340 vamps organised in covens.
Now let's do another math, coven rules dictate only the coven leader turns others.
So, if we go by the ratio of the Paris coven, 13 to 1, round it up to 15 to 1 because adding Claudia and Louis to the blood self service of Paris isn't an issue so we can assume 15 used to be an average and sustainable number. x:1340=1:15, that is 90 coven leaders. So total vamps 1340, out of which only 90 were actively turning others and might have done so in the last 100 years (those breaking coven laws likely balance out those living in pairs with companions and never turning anyone in this math). This would mean in the last 100 years, there would be 90 new vamps who would be kinda shit at turning others (Lestat and his actions are a case of its own so we will not consider his scenario, we're thinking of someone turning someone else every 100 years). So between makers and fledglings with less than a 100 years since the turning, we got an estimate of 180 vamps who are going to be shit at turning others if they try.
Still, out of the 1340 vamps, it's just 180. We still have a strong 1160 vamps who can turn anyone efficiently going right?
EXCEPT we know most covens are very observing of the laws. Even when converting more and joining the movement, coven leaders seem to be important. I mean, we see Louis take out the Fang Gang easily with zero prep (unlike Paris), it's likely they were all Bruce's fledgling (or almost all, rule breakers still exist), and it would explain why they were so weak.
This would also explain why the new vampires all seem to suck major ass.
Even fledglings made pre-MMM with less than a decade of immortality would be MUCH stronger than a post-MMM fledgling because their makers weren't diluting their power as much. To simplify, being a younger sibling sucks major ass in this scenario, the older siblings sucked up all the power before they got there. We also haven't seen any young vamps use stuff like the fire gift or the cloud gift, which might be another consequence of the diluted power or simple neglect from their makers.
But, say that right off the bat ALL coven leaders and solitary vamps went and joined the MMM, redardless of how long it had been since they had turned someone else, assuming it had been a few decades for everyone. That is 90 + 260, 350 MMM somewhat decent fledglings (averaging their skills between makers who might have turned someone sooner than the last century, those that had never turned anyone and had more than a century on them, those that had more than a century since their last fledgling).
Any vamp turned after that however would be shit. The MMM has been going for maybe a little over a year, if we assume there was a first wave after the publication of the book.
So it is 1950 decent vamps, between old and new.
That is less than 1/150 of the total vamps we have, 290.000.
290.000-1950 is 288.050 vamps who are being turned at faster and faster rates and are going to suck, because again, we assume that it's coven leaders and solitary vamps doing the heavy lifting.
But let's say a few covens let loose. Actually no, let's say ALL covens let loose. Let's say ALL vampires joined in (we canonically know not all did, but pretend for the sake of hypothesis).
1600 makers. 1600 new non-shitty fledglings.
That is 3200 decent vamps. That is 1/90 of the whole vampire population. Better than the previous odd, but not by much! Still 286.800 shitty vamps. Still less than a 1/15 of the vamps present at the concert!
BUT BUT BUT let's be optimistic! Let's stretch it!!
Let's say that the 1600 new fledglings were on Lestat pre-Akasha level, and could create already ONE decent fledgling. Lestat with Gabriella, right? She was decent enough right after turning (at least Gabrielle was, in the book).
So it's another 1600 decent fledglings.
That is still 4800 decent vamps overall.
A little over a tenth of the vamps at the concert, 1/60 of the overall population. If all covens decided fuck the rule about no one but the coven leader turning anyone! Because in the scenario they abided by that rule, we'd get 1600 (ogs) + 350 (first MMM gen) + 350 (second MMM gen) which is 2300 decent vamps.
If we go for an average between the two scenarios, we'd have 3200 (MMM fledglings in fuck rules scenario) plus 700 (MMM fledglings in strict rules scenario), average 1950 (MMM decent fledglings in a mixed scenario), sum to the previous 1600 and we get 3550 non shitty vampires. And that is STILL assuming in all scenarios that ALL COVEN LEADERS and LONE COUPLES decide to join the MMM. This is still VERY optimistic.
We're still talking of 290 thousand vamps total. Best scenario they still won't get to 5 thousand decent vamps.
285.200 Temu ass vampires if they're lucky- that is a little over 23 new vamps a month by the way. The quality of these new vamps isn't due to being millennials or gen z, it's because the makers aren't using birth control as advised. And every generation and every second fledgling gets WORSE.
No wonder the Telemasca isn't worried.
Besides the fact that soon enough they'll realise food is running scarce and start killing eachother for it. Did you know that with some pest animals it is advised to let the population boom so when it reaches its peak the food scarcity will kill them and the population will stabilise and not get excessive again, unlike what you'd get by eliminating the individuals yourself? It was the first thing I thought of when Raglan admitted the Talamasca endorsed the MMM. Not just "solving" human overpopulation, but knowing that the vampire population will soon self regulate without need for intervention. That, paired with what we can only call a baby boom, there's a high chance of older vampires getting killed and substituted by younger and weaker ones. Louis is still an outlier to me as he has the blood of Akasha through Lestat's, I don't think most vamps his age or slightly older even are as strong as he is and I think enough fledglings teaming up could kill an older vamp, especially if say older vamp was weakened by having just made a new fledgling, and then become easier to get rid of one by one for the Telemasca if they wanted to put a population control plan into action. This last bit is much more of a personal vision than an objective observation.
Yeah this was supposed to be a little "hey do we think Lestat feels guilty for turning Claudia and Antoinette so soon after Louis and not passing them enough power to fight back and survive" but ended up as statistical speculations on the future of the vampire population in the show!Riceverse. Hope you had fun reading all that! I sure had fun opening and closing the calculator the whole time and making theories.
