Is it ACTUALLY possible to solve Umineko on your own? Like, realistically?
This article contains no spoilers beyond chapter 2, which is the bare minimum you need to read to even understand what Umineko is about.
As I was reading the answers arc of the Umineko no Naku Koro ni visual novel, also known as Umineko When They Cry, also known as Umineko no Naku Koro ni Chiru, I wondered:
Can this mystery actually be solved before the story explains the solution? And by “actually” I mean “being an average reader that spends a couple hours thinking really hard about it”, since I assume that it is solvable if you are a die hard fan with 4.000 free hours that is willing to re-read each chapter 10 times and write a book full of notes.
Also, by “possible” I mean that the solution makes perfect sense and can be reached by following logic steps.
I feared that looking up the answer on the internet might produce an accidental spoiler that ruins the whole experience. Still, I took a peek, since I needed some guarantee before committing the time to try and solve it.
I found some threads on reddit where everyone agreed that it was in fact solvable. Some people going as far as claiming they solved it all by episode 4.
So I tried to solve it. I spent some hours on it, rereading some chapter and competitions of red truths. I had some theories, but nothing that neatly explained all the murders. It didn’t look like I could get any further, so I kept reading.
After having finished the whole visual novel, reading over the manga, watching 8 hours of video on youtube, and reading old forums for even more hours, this is my red truth:
It is impossible to properly solve Umineko.
But then, how come that all those people claimed to have solved it themselves?
The truth about those people is that they did not solve Umineko, not by a long shot.
- Figure out a certain twist in the story that heavily implies who the culprit is and assume that’s the solution.
What those people didn’t do:
- Actually go through every murder and provide a proper explanation of how that character could have done it, supported by clues in the game and without contradictions.
Why is it impossible to properly solve Umineko?
- Most of the actions that the culprit must have taken are not hinted at all.
- There is no limit on how many culprits/accomplices there are.
- There is no guarantee that the accomplices or even the culprit are the same in all the games.
- There is no guarantee that the culprit is not killed.
- Anything that is not a red truth can be disregarded as “lies of the narration”.
- Red truths are valid as long as they are technically true in any possible context or interpretation, which makes them worse than useless (more on this later).
- It's never explicitly stated that the Umineko mystery follows any of the "rules of a good mystery" explained in the story.
So, basically, there isn't nearly enough information and rules to find the truth. Even if you reached a solution, you could never be sure it is the solution, and coming up with a solution given the listed conditions is unsatisfactory and trivially easy.
Before proving that, let me quickly address the riddle of the epitaph.
Is it possible to solve the riddle of the epitaph?
Why is it impossible to solve the riddle of the epitaph?
Because the solution requires:
- The map of a certain country during a certain time period (none of which are mentioned in the first 4 chapters, I think, and I doubt you could even find it on the internet).
- Expert knowledge of Japanese kanjis and a some Chinese.
- Solving metaphoric riddles of questionable logic.
- To be actually present in Umineko’s world so you can examine and interact with "the door to the golden land".
However, the riddle of the epitaph is possible to guess.
This is what anyone who claims to have solved the epitaph actually did. They guessed the answer using these 3 steps:
1- Ignore the most convoluted parts of the epitaph and assume the location of the door to the golden land based on what would make sense for the narrative of the story.
2- Solve a play on words by interpreting it in the only way that would fit the description of that place.
3- Roughly guess how opening the door to the golden land could work.
Now, let’s go back to the solution to the murders. I claimed that coming up with a solution given the listed conditions is unsatisfactory and trivially easy.
Let me demonstrate. Here is the solution for all the murders in Umineko assuming the culprit is whatever character you want:
- All the servants, Nanjo, and all the members of the family required to make it work are accomplices. They are either bribed, threatened, convinced or tricked.
- Every death is being faked unless stated in red.
- Every scene not directly witnessed and described in a literal fashion by Battler is a “lie of the narration”, so it never happened.
- If it is stated in red that your chosen character is not the culprit, it is because the word “culprit” is not being used to mean “the mastermind behind the murders” but “the responsible for some particular action” that your chosen culprit is not directly responsible for.
- If it is stated in red that your chosen character is not a murderer or did not kill a particular person, it is because while carrying out the murders they were roleplaying Beatrice, so the red truth is considering that the actual murderer is their Beatrice impersonation, not their actual self.
Easy, right? Completely unsatisfactory too.
You would assume that the actual solution is elegant, doesn't require twisting the red truth so much, and is completely supported by hints, but you would be wrong.
The VN doesn’t even explicitly confirm who the culprit is and it doesn’t go into detail about how each murder was carried out either. However, the manga does. I will refer to this as the “official solution”.
The official solution is so bad and full of holes and contradictions that a lot of people think it’s actually a trap set by the author for “people who stop thinking”.
So there’s 2 possibilities here:
- Umineko is a disappointment and is not solvable. The author did a poor job shoehorning explanations that were not hinted and forgetting details that contradict them.
- Umineko is a hidden masterpiece. The author committed to a master trolling and pretended, even during interviews, that the flawed official solution is the truth, all just to hide the proper solution for those who don’t stop thinking. Let’s call this the “hidden solution”.
Why is the official solution so bad? Short edition.
I’ll go into more detail later, but in brief:
- The solution requires fairly ridiculous “anime logic”.
- The solution doesn’t follow the rules of a proper mystery that Umineko itself explains. There are no clues to figure out how most of the murders where carried out or by whom.
- The are as many clues pointing to the culprit as there are red truths contradicting it.
- The solution is willing to disregard basically everything that is not a red truth as “lies of the narration”.
- The red truth directly contradicts this solution, unless we interpret it in arbitrary and twisted ways in order for it to mean something else.
- The logistics and details of the murders are ignored. Corpses are moved around like pillows. The culprit is never stained by blood. Shots are not heard unless the plot requires so. Etc.
Is it possible to reach the official solution?
It’s possible to figure out who is the official culprit. There are heavy hints for it, hard to see initially, but sorta obvious in retrospect. Since it’s a big twist, you should be fairly certain that you found it when you do.
However, for the reasons listed before, finding the culprit doesn’t allow you to find the solution to the murders, since anyone can be an accomplice, any narration can be a lie and any red truth can be interpreted as something else.
So, what about the hidden solution?
Is it possible to reach the hidden solution?
I’m not saying a hidden, elegant solution doesn’t exist, but for the reasons listed under “Why is it impossible to properly solve Umineko?”, you would never know if it is elegant enough to be the actual truth. It would also certainly require 4.000 hours if not more. Such a hidden truth would require you to disseminate and analyze almost every single word of this 120 hours novel.
However, I don’t see how you can make sense of all the red truths without twisting their logic and meaning so they don’t contradict real facts or one another, which makes me think that the actual solution being bad is more likely than a hidden, perfectly logical solution.
Up until chapter 6, I would have totally bought that the whole story was perfectly thought off up to the last detail, but chapters 7 and 8 are so bad I don’t believe that anymore.
Why is the official solution so bad? Extended edition.
Since I don’t want to spoil it, let me give you a fictional example of a solution that is roughly as bad as the official one, with the same kind of justifications.
The following are not spoilers, just a completely fake theory I just made up that not only appears to fit perfectly as a solution, but also appears to be heavily hinted through the game:
The culprit is Maria. She is actually not 8 but 20 years old. This is the big twist that makes people think they have solved Umineko upon realizing it, regardless of whether it completely fits or not. Then they reinterpret everything as needed to make it look like it’s supporting this truth, as I’m about to do.
This truth is right in your face the whole time, as Rosa is constantly scolding her for not acting her age. It makes no sense that she would be that bothered by it if Maria was actually 8 years old.
This is also heavily hinted by the way Rosa abuses Maria in front of other people while they all allow it. Hitting a 20 years old is not nearly as abusive as hitting an 8 years old.
All the characters agree to treat Maria as an 8 years old since that’s the way she acts and they don’t want to be mean to her, unlike her mother. This is also the reason why she is visually depicted as a little kid; as far as anyone is concerned, she is a little kid. “Without love it cannot be seen”; because they love Maria and respect her personality, they can see her as a kid.
This is all a facade maintained by Maria to trick everyone. She’s such a fanatic of the occult that her mask slips when talking about the topic and she starts acting like the creepy adult she actually is. Another massive hint that’s in your face the whole time.
She's also shown to know Hebrew and have the whole Bible memorized. There's no way she could be a little girl.
Even her appearance reveals the truth: She’s the only one who wears a crown, signaling that she’s the queen of the chess game.
If you have read up to chapter 5, you should recall a scene in which a certain character seriously confronts her about the existence of magic as if she was an adult, to the surprise of everyone else, who think this character is being rude. This is another massive hint that she’s actually an adult and everyone is pretending for her sake.
The reason she carries out the murders is because she truly believes Beatrice exists and will be resurrected with the ritual depicted in the epitaph. She is always saying so openly and being unaffected by the murders no matter how grueling they are or if the victim is her own mother.
The kind of person who claims to have solved Umineko would have stopped here and decided the mystery is solved. The twist is obvious in retrospect and it seems like Maria could actually have carried out the murders if she was an adult. It’s obvious that this is the solution, so there’s no need to think it further or go through every murder to check if it actually fits and is supported by clues. This story is a masterpiece!
But now we are on the internet and there are idiots who claim this solution is bad or contradictory, so let’s prove them wrong:
First chapter, first twilight:
Maria enters the parlor with a gun and kills everyone.
Yes, she kills 6 people by herself without missing a shot, even though in later chapters it’s said that the guns in the mansion don’t shoot straight and are very hard to reload for an amateur
She then carries 6 corpses to the storeroom at the other side of the garden all by herself, without getting blood stains on her clothes or on the path to the storeroom, and without anyone hearing a thing.
Later on, Natsuhi also has a gun. This confirms that there are guns in the mansion, so Maria could also get a gun, making this crime hinted and solvable.
First chapter, second twilight:
Maria goes to Eva’s room. Eva has no reason to suspect her, so she lets her in, then Maria kills her and Hideyoshi with the gun she carried hidden on her purse (another big hint; she’s the only one who can carry weapons around without being noticed).
The chain on the door was never set, that was a lie of the narration. This makes sense since Battler himself didn’t witness the scene. Genji and Kanon find the bodies and go tell other people.
While they are out, Maria somehow draws a giant magic circle in blood on the door, without moving the bodies or staining herself, the floor, or the bed where the corpse of Eva is laying. She had drawings of the same circle on her notebook, making this crime hinted and solvable.
You get the point, so let’s skip the rest of the murders and assume they can be explained by Maria somehow.
Let’s assume that in later chapters it is said in red that Maria is dead and her death was a homicide. This might seem to contradict our theory that Maria is the culprit, but it actually doesn’t. The sentence is referring to “Maria the kid”, which is treated here as a different entity from “Maria the adult”, in a similar way as how Maria treats her mother as either her real mother or “the evil witch” depending on whether she’s angry or kind. “Maria the kid” being dead means that she has discarded that facade and won’t use it anymore*. This can be considered a homicide since “Maria the adult” is the one who decides to “kill” her facade.
*She will actually use it one more time when it’s convenient for the plot, but this is treated as a resurrection and doesn’t contradict the truth that “Maria the kid” was dead at that point in time.
All of this makes sense and is solvable.
This is what the official solution apologists believe.
Umineko completely betrays the player.
Umineko is constantly asking the player to solve its mystery, going as far as to insult readers who don’t try hard enough, and seemingly assuring you that the game is perfectly solvable and follows the rules of a good mystery.
I take particular issue with the red truth.
The red truth is introduced in a way that requires trust and cooperation from the player. It is not realistic to think that Battler (or you, the player) would be convinced that a lying witch that is trying to trick you would be trustworthy when explaining the rules of the game or the nature of the red truth.
However, you do the concession because you are, in fact, playing a game. You understand that the game is challenging you to solve it, so some rules must be laid out.
The red truth is accepted as a shortcut to avoid having to read through 2 hours of explanations for every minute detail. You accept that when “character X is dead” is said in red, the purpose is to tell Battler (and you, the player), that you should not waste your time trying to find ways in which the death of character X could have been faked, and for the story to not waste time either trying to deny every possible way to fake that death (which would be futile anyway since you can’t believe anything the witch says).
Red truths are sometimes used for misdirection, but that’s all good and part of the fun as long as they can still be taken at face value and interpreted literally. “Character X didn’t exit the room” tricks you into assuming that character X was inside the room to begin with, but the solution here is to take the red truth literally and don’t make any extra assumptions, not to change the meaning or the context of the red.
Eventually, however, the game provides consecutive red truths that directly contradict each other. The official explanation is that a red truth is valid as long as there is a way in which it could technically be interpreted as true. For example, if you and I are in the same room, I can claim in red that “there’s only one person in the room”, because I’m speaking out of context and by “the room” I’m not referring to this room, but any other room with a single person in it, or because you did cruel things in the past, so I consider you to be a “monster”, not a “person”. Therefore, the red truth “there’s only one person in the room” is no truth at all.
You might think it’s a cool twist that the red is not reliable and the witch was tricking you all along, and I agree that from a narrative standpoint it is.
However, from the point of view of a player being encouraged to try and solve the mystery, it is a complete betrayal of the truth you placed in the game.
The ending of Umineko is awful and the whole “solvable mystery” is a hurtful lie.
