Words About Wars

In 2014 the Rand Corporations published a fascinating study, Blinders, Blunders, and Wars, on the role of information in strategic decision making.  The premise of the study was to analyze 12 case studies (8 blunders, 4 not blunders) with the hope that greater understanding of information processing and decision making would lead to fewer blunders.  The study is full of information and research from a variety of disciplines.  The case studies are fascinating and well researched.  I focused on the one about George W. Bush and the Iraq War as I have never been able to understand why the United States pursued that policy.  After reading the case study, i have a much clearer understanding of the decision making process that led to this war.  Rand Corporation classified this war as a blunder--”starting wars by misjudgment” (Rand 3) and the analysis is sobering to read.

What were the blunders?  According to the Rand study, the decision to invade was based on these false and incompletely thought through assumptions and one political justification.

1.  Political groups seeing opportunity (remake the Middle East) in danger (terrorism and 9/11 attacks) with an attractive  but ultimately unrealistic outcome;

2.  Selecting dubious  information of a poor quality that reinforced this danger and artfully suppressing or hiding information to the contrary;

3.  The U.S. military could quickly, decisively and relatively cheaply defeat any opponent;

4.  A dysfunctional decision making system;

5.  Impatience with our allies and weapons inspectors;

6.  Poor or no planning for after the war.

Finally, cognitive frameworks that did not fit with reality and a refusal to seek information that would challenge these frameworks.

This study is worth reading both because of the ‘lessons from history’ and the importance of information research.  All of the information needed to rethink this decision and the others in the study was available at the time to the decision makers.  Think about that...

Check out this clip about Vice President Cheney and Iraq

attributed to Bob Dylan

Big Day Today -September 2, 1945

This film shows an edited version of the Japanese surrender ceremony on board the U.S.S Missouri in Tokyo Bay.  General Douglas MacArthur, Supreme Commander of the Allied Powers signed on behalf of the United Nations, Fleet Admiral Chester Nimitz signed for the United States along with representatives from other Allied nations.  Standing behind MacArthur is General Jonathan Wainwright, forced to surrender all U.S. forces in the Philippines in 1942 and General Arthur Percival who surrendered the British forces at SIngapore.  Both men had recently been freed from POW camps and received pens from MacArthur at the ceremony.

Sources:

"National Archives Marks 70th Anniversary of End of World War II." National Archives and Records Administration. National Archives and Records Administration, 20 Aug. 2015. Web. 02 Sept. 2015.  

"1945 Japanese Surrender; Tokyo Occupation 221802-05." YouTube. YouTube, n.d. Web. 02 Sept. 2015.                          

United States Military Spending - is it all relative?

We all know the United States spends a ton on military matters.  The U.S. spends more on defense than the next seven nations combined.  What does that mean?  Some have described the United States as an insurance company with an army.  Are the nation’s policy makers spending wisely and effectively for actual threats, perceived threats or outdated ‘no longer’ threats.

“OK Leadah”

Les Munro was a pilot from the famous Dambusters Squadron 617 which bombed German dams in 1943.  Using cylindrical shaped land mines dropped from British Lancasters, this new technology allowed the explosive device to ‘skip’ across water (neutralizing underwater nets) until it hit the dam wall.  The mine would back spin after hitting the dam wall and sinkl until the force of the explosion ruptured the wall.  Munro did not participate as his plane sustained flak damage and had to turn back.

The famous raid was made into a move, The Dambusters, starring the ever dashing Richard Todd as Wing Commander Guy Gibson, the squadron ‘Leadah’.

This memoir by Vera Brittain is the story of her life as a young women and covers the years from 1900-1925.  These are formative years in anyone’s life.  Ms. Brittain’s experiences included admittance and study at Oxford when women were not allowed to take degrees and the awfulness of World War I.  She lost her fiance and many of her close friends.  After the war she turned into a pacifist (who wouldn’t?).  I read this book and its companion 2nd volume, Testament of Friendship, several years ago and enjoyed them both.  Testament of Youth has been made into a rather slow moving movie with beautiful clothes.  Unfortunately, it doesn’t have the direction that leaves a viewer with the necessary tragic state of mind over the senseless killing of so many millions of men as personified by Ms. Brittain’s loved ones.  I looked up the images of the three men (her fiance, brother and friend) - so young and what a profound waste.  Below is a picture of the men.  They are (L to R) Edward Brittain, Roland Leighton and Victor Richardson.

Not that I participated in this event, but this film clip is very realistic.  I have visited Omaha Beach-not a lot of cover for these guys.

The title says it all...but I have a question.

NPR posted an article with this chart to honor Memorial Day.  More than 1.1 million American have been killed in all U. S. wars according to these figures. 

Chess pieces from a jeweled Russian set-yes, that is Napoleon.

Chess and warfare have very little in common, even though some generals like to think otherwise.  In chess, you can always see your opponent’s moves, it takes place in almost total quiet and the confrontation space is contained.  War is loud, most of the time nobody really knows knows what is really going on and battlefields can pop up in a variety of places.   

Chess has figured in war, however.  Soviet players had dominated chess after World War II, politicizing the game.  A match was set up in 1972 between the American chess prodigy Bobby Fisher and the world chess champion Boris Spassky.  Scheduled to take place in Reykjavik, Iceland, Fisher made countless demands (Henry KIssinger had to talk him into even going to Iceland) and eventually beat Spassky.  Fisher had a killer mentality about chess.  Perhaps he felt his opponents viewed him the same way. 

Colossus

I was reading an article on artificially intelligent killing machines known as lethal autonomous weapons or LAWs. (God, I love initial isms!)  LAWS are a “fire and forget” weapon where the military commander just pushes the “on” button leaving human decision making out of the loop.  What could be better than machines fighting machines?  No humans get hurt. Well, some scientists believe that weapons of this type could render humans and human controlled systems worthless and defenseless.  This scenario reminds me of the classic apocalyptic movie Colossus: The Forbin Project. 

The plot is about a scientist who creates a computer system for the United States command structure that has total control over its nuclear arsenal.  Then they find out the Soviets have done the same thing with its Guardian system. The systems start communicating to each other and the next thing you know, it’s TOTAL DOMINATION!

Be careful what you wish for...