Alberto Saturday AM Tropical Update 26May18
Sat 26May18 4aCDT/5aEDT update:
Alberto formed Friday 25May near the Yucatán Peninsula.
**Official updates on storm stats ALL come from the US National Hurricane Center based in Miami, FL. Your local/national news/apps then put their own graphics on that info. So if you want to know first check them out on social media or their website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
They publish updates every 3 hours:
1, 4, 7, & 10am/pm Central time US (CDT)
(2, 5, 8, & 11am/pm Eastern time US (EDT))
Past that, if you want more detail for your area see local National Weather Service office here (they're the ones who actually issue weather Watches/Warnings): https://www.weather.gov
Alberto as of Saturday May 26, 2018 4aCDT/5aEST:
Winds 40mph, moving NNE 7mph, pressure 1005mb
-Starting its turn, picking up movement speed, as expected.
-Disorganized still, NHC says the 40mph is generous but waiting on aircraft recon to confirm...but its doubtful they'll lower wind speed given confusion to public if they downgrade it then upgrade it back shortly after.
-Storm is battling strong shear (winds blowing across it) as expected which is why it can't gain much strength yet (storms like to be straight and tall over the Low Pressure center/core...when its misaligned its weaker/struggles). This shear gets less and less towards north Gulf of Mexico with a nice calm area just before the coast.
-Storm is battling dry air on its West side, storms prefer moist environments, again this will improve in time.
-Should start to better organize tonight into Sunday
-Should become fully "Tropical" sometime Sunday or so.
-Forecast max winds (max winds usually only around center, disorganized storms this may just be in one rain band/blob off to the side, winds weaker elsewhere):
--Tue 5a 60mph (Near coast)
--Wed 5a 30mph (well inland)
-The Cone map above shows only where the storm center could be in time really.
-Earliest reasonable timing Tropical Storm winds map is possible timing 39mph+ winds could start, but likely later then that.
Impacts (what does this mean to you?):
-Rain Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba 10-15inches, isolated 25in.
-Rain FL Keys / S FL 3-7in, isolated 10in.
-Heavy rain will move into US Gulf coast region as storm approaches.
-Saturated grounds and full rivers across the S US could result in flooding.
-Storm Surge (water rise due to storm above normal tide levels) of 2-4ft along US Gulf Coast in Watch area possible.
-Higher waves and high rip current threat along US Gulf Coast beaches.
-With saturated grounds power outages and trees falling will be a concern. Hours of wear and tear from just around 40mph in saturated ground is enough to cause problems.
-Tornadoes, usually small and short lived, will be possible, mainly as storm outer rain bands start to reach land, and are typically found in the Northeast corner/quadrant of a storm. Tornadoes also possible today in S FL, FL Keys region but biggest threat likely towards landfall late Monday.
Always have multiple ways to receive warnings.
NEVER drive over flooded roadway as you don't know if the road is still there. Most US flood deaths are actually vehicle related. Turn around don't drown. A few inches is also enough to stall your car or even float it away.
Gulf of Mexico overall GOES-EAST satellite imagery bands:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/GOES16_sectors.php?sector=gm
