the lithium series, part five: zambia vs zimbabwe
in 2022, sinomine resource group acquired the bikita mine in masvingo province — believed to be the world's largest known lithium deposit, at 10.8 million tonnes — for USD 180 million. zhejiang huayou cobalt acquired the arcadia lithium project near harare for USD 422 million. chengxin lithium entered the sabi star project. canmax technologies partnered at zulu lithium. total chinese investment: approximately USD 2.79 billion.
in 2023, bikita produced 250,000 tonnes of lithium concentrate. arcadia completed a 450,000 tonne per year mixed concentrate plant. zimbabwe exported more than one million tonnes of lithium concentrate in 2025 — up 30 percent in the first half as miners maximised shipments before the forthcoming ban. by 2026, zimbabwe ranked as the fifth largest lithium producer in the world.
then zimbabwe changed the rules.
2022: banned raw lithium ore exports. early 2026: extended restrictions to lithium concentrate — immediate ban on export of all raw minerals and concentrates. january 2027: full ban on lithium concentrate exports takes effect. the explicit objective: force processing to happen in zimbabwe, not china.
the results are already materialising. in april 2026, the first shipment of lithium sulphate — a higher-value intermediate product used in producing lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide — came from the arcadia project, where a USD 400 million lithium sulphate plant backed by zhejiang huayou cobalt was completed in late 2025. bikita minerals is investing USD 500 million into a sulphate facility and a smelter planned for commissioning in 2027.
battery-grade lithium carbonate: more than USD 7,000 per tonne. raw spodumene concentrate: approximately USD 570 per tonne. zimbabwe has forced that value addition gap to close — at least partially — within its own borders.
zambia declared lithium a strategic mineral in 2023. the geological survey department has undertaken critical mineral mapping. the misika project in southern province has confirmed exceptionally high-grade LCT pegmatite mineralisation.
genuine and significant steps. but zambia has not attracted USD 2.79 billion in lithium sector investment. has not built a lithium concentrator. has not enacted a processing obligation. has no lithium producing mine. exports no lithium.
the zimbabwe comparison is not an indictment of zambia. geology is patient. the opportunity does not expire with the next fiscal year.
but it is a clock. it shows what is possible when a country with comparable geological endowment makes the policy decisions — strategic mineral declaration, investment attraction, processing obligation — that zambia has begun but not yet completed.
zimbabwe moved fast. the window for being an early mover rather than a follower is measured in years, not decades.
the lithium series continues. âš¡
