#werdum

Joey

March 11th, 2018

Fights: 12 (11?)

Debuts: 5 (John Phillips, Charles Byrd, Magomed Ankalaev, Hakeem Dawodu, Dimitry Sosnovski)

Fight Changes/Injury Cancellations: 4 (Rustam Khabilov OUT, Stevie Ray IN vs Kajan Johnson/Dmitry Prohebetz OUT, Dmitry Sosnovskiy IN vs Mark Godbeer/Alex Reyes OUT, TBD IN vs Nasrat Haqparast/Elizeu Zaleski OUT, Brad Scott IN vs Jack Marshmann)

Headliners (fighters who have either main evented or co-main evented shows in the UFC): 5 (Fabricio Werdum, Alexander Volkov, Jimi Manuwa, Jan Blachowicz, Stevie Ray)

Fighters On Losing Streaks in the UFC:  2 (Terrion Ware, Paul Craig)

Fighters On Winning Streaks in the UFC:  7 (Fabricio Werdum, Alexander Volkov, Jan Blachowicz, Leon Edwards, Peter Sobotta, Mark Godbeer, Kajan Johnson)

Main Card Record Since Jan 1st 2016 (in the UFC): 18-8

Alexander Volkov- 3-0 Fabricio Werdum- 3-2 Jan Blachowicz- 3-2 Jimi Manuwa- 2-1 Tom Duquesnoy- 1-1 Terrion Ware- 0-2 Leon Edwards- 4-0 Peter Sobotta- 2-0

Too High Up- Terrion Ware vs Tom Duquesnoy

Terrion Ware is the sort of fighter every MMA organization loves to have. He's a guy who can test your prospects, give them a few unique looks and test what guys can and can't do. Thus far, Ware has given some dicey moments to Cody Stamman and Sean O'Malley so you know he can be your prospect tester dijour. The problem is Ware is fighting third up on the card vs Tom Duquesnoy in a fight entirely designed to get Duquesnoy back on the right track. I'm not opposed to young fighters getting opportunities to rebuild their stock because it's just smart business but Duquesnoy-Ware should not be third fight on the card. Thus far Ware's agent has got him on International Fight Week, the co-main event of an FS1 card and now this premier slot on Fight Pass. Dude's out here putting in work.

Too Low- Danny Henry vs Hakeem Dawodu

In his UFC debut, Canada's top prospect gets what is the usual "hyped guy debut" fight---a really fucking tough matchup where nobody respects his opponent. Henry is a former AFC champ who debuted vs Daniel Teymur and had a hellacious war with him in a FOTN bonus earning win. Henry looked huge for 155 lbs so lord knows what he'll look like at 145. Henry is a flawed fighter who Dawodu should be able to style on BUT there are no guarantees under 155 lbs and Henry has a lot of tools (power, size and cardio) which should give Hakeem some issues. This fight should be on the main card.

Stat Monitor for 2018: Debuting Fighters (Current number: 6-9):  John Phillips, Charles Byrd, Magomed Ankalaev, Hakeem Dawodu, Dimitry Sosnovski

Short Notice Fighters (Current number: 6-2): Stevie Ray, Dmitry Sosnovski, Brad Scott

Second Fight (Current number: 8-9): Oliver Enkamp, Danny Henry, Nasrat Haqparast

Cage Corrosion (Current number: 5-9):  

Undefeated Fighters (Current number: 11-8): Hakeem Dawodu, Dmitry Sosnovski

Twelve Precarious Ponderings

1- I'd actually like to begin by doing a bit of an exercise if you'll so indulge me. There are 17 European fighters on this card from top to bottom if you remove the in limbo fight for one Nasrat Haqparast. Removing the debuting fighters, that number drops to 15. Of those fifteen fighters, how many of them are some combination resulting in 2-2 in their last 4 fights?

Jimi Manuwa Jan Blachowicz Danny Roberts Jack Marshmann Brad Scott Paul Craig Stevie Ray

So of the fifteen fighters on this card from Europe who have set foot in the UFC octagon, seven of them are 2-2 in their last 4 fights. That fifteen also includes guys like Tom Duquesnoy, Alexander Volkov and others who don't even have a four fight minimum in the org.

The point was to illustrate the challenges of the European fight scene. MOST of these guys fight in Europe and the UFC goes to Europe, what, six times a year? That leaves these guys taking fights outside of Europe but never in America; like Mexico, Canada or Brazil primarily. That creates a pretty weird dynamic where most of these fights are outside of their comfort zones and on the road in enemy territory where they're really just there to be "an opponent." All of this leads to an erosion of fan support as more and more European fighters get smelted out of their home markets, creating the illusion that they're just not good enough. It all leads to a challenge of balancing the desire to showcase international fighters in front of their fans with the fact that there are X amount of cards to fill up with guys who have to fight X amount of times across X amount of dates. When SO many local fighters are in a state of "win one, lose one, win one, lose one" there's no semblance of momentum.

2- What fighter in Fabricio Werdum's past does Alexander Volkov best represent? I can't think of somebody who he's faced who provides the combination of workrate, size and striking depth that Volkov has. That's not to say Werdum can't win (or won't win) but I'm at a loss for a real good comp for Volkov.

3- It's amazing the level of durability Fabricio Werdum has displayed throughout his career. Not even looking at the level of growth he's displayed as a fighter, we're talking about a guy who has fought at a high level since at least 2007 when I first got reintroduced to MMA. He's fought everybody under the sun and only two guys have managed to put him down and out; Stipe Miocic and JDS. That includes fights with Overeem (three times), Cain Velasquez, Mark Hunt, Fedor, Big Foot, Andrei Arlovski, Big Nog (twice), Travis Browne (twice) and Gabriel Gonzaga. All of that is to lead into the obvious; at SOME point this dude is going to crack. He's over 40, fought three times last year and might fight three more times this year given how often the UFC calls upon him. It's just the nature of the human body to EVENTUALLY erode from prolonged damage. Volkov isn't blessed with the one hitter quitter that can put a dude out on impact but he is very active and aggressive. It probably wouldn't happen early but if this fight drags, accumulation of damage could be a serious problem.

4- So this main card is actually not bad considering it's a European Fight Pass card. Werdum/Volkov is a really good HW fight (and the winner probably is facing the winner of Lewis/Ngannou for a #1 contender spot), Blachowicz/Manuwa I was an awful fight but this is a relevant fight between big dudes at 205 lbs including one dude who will always be a "maybe sorta" #1 contender type because he creates highlight reels. Peter Sobotta vs Leon Edwards isn't the world's sexiest fight on paper but Sobotta has really turned his career around since coming back to the UFC and he seems really confident in his hands right now. On the other hand, Leon Edwards has lost his fight finishing spark but still has fights which suggest he's growing somewhat as a fighter. Even Duquesnoy/Ware should be tons of fun. The prelim slate is just so "UFC Fight Pass in Europe" level that it really dampens the excitement. Brett Johns getting on this card wouldve been huge for him.

5- Jan Blachowicz has sort of had a chance to mentally reset his stock on the lower half of the 205 lb division and gets rocketed RIGHT back up the top of the division. Blachowicz has really struggled around this level with losses to Pat Cummins (in a fight he could've won), Jimi Manuwa (fight he should've won), Alexander Gustafsson (in a fight he probably shouldn't of taken) and Corey Anderson. The level of competition there is pretty intense and it's not like Jan has been completely outstyled in those fights. He's just NOT on that level (or wasn't enough to win those fights). He gets a second crack at Manuwa now.

6- I'm really beginning to lose faith in Danny Roberts as a prospect. On the regional circuit, he always seemed to put himself in various states of peril but it seemed to be more out of inexperience. In the UFC, he's continued to put himself in bad spots defensively and his chin has been cracked on a number of opportunities. Dominique Steele had him hurting in a bad way, Mike Perry finished him in a fight where Roberts just couldn't get out of the way for a fifteen minute period, Bobby Nash had Roberts all sorts of thrown off before Danny Roberts finished him off and Nordine Taleb finished Roberts in violent fashion in December. Roberts draws Swedish karate ace Oliver Enkamp in a pivotal fight for both guys.

7- Can Leon Edwards somehow finish Peter Sobotta and keep pace with the other 170 lbers who seem to all be getting their careers on the right track?

8- If Leon Edwards wins, do they try to put him vs Ponz in Chile? I really like Edwards but since nearly finishing Claudio Silva and smelting Seth Baczynski, he's had 6 fights and gone to a decision in all but one of them. There's really no reason somebody with his tools should be so....not fun. His fights are heading in the opposite direction at a time where Kamaru Usman, Darren Till, Ponz, Max Griffin, Elizeu Zaleski, Jake Matthews, Mike Perry and others in that  "fun new WW to care about" are all having damn fun fights.

9- All Magomed Ankalaev has to do is finish his fight and be the savior of 205 lbs. It's not asking too much.

10- Alright Mark Godbeer, what stupid shit you gonna get yourself into this time?

11- So about the Godbeer fight, maybe this exposes my lack of knowledge but I could not tell you the differences between Dmitry Sosnovskiy and Dmitry Poberezhets, the guy who was originally scheduled to fight Godbeer. The UFC seems to have like a bevy of heavyweights who they signed but can't seem to actually get to get into the cage, it's almost infuriating if you're one of those OCD guys who wants to keep up with everything going on.

12- Stevie Ray getting a new contract to try and smelt Kajan Johnson is very UFC of the UFC. It's almost like a Batman TAS plot from the Joker.

Joey 

November 12th, 2017

Oh boy. Well it's not always going to be loaded, is it? The UFC came into this show basically with two fights to build around which in the modern era is really all you need. If fans only care about the main event and the co-main event then sure! All you need is two fights, am I right? The problem, as if often times the case, is that these things fall apart easier than a Jenga tower. Mark Hunt was pulled due to concerns about his mental health and in his place came Fabricio Werdum. That's a more interesting fight FOR me but for Aussie fans, I'm willing to bet they were 1,000,000 times more interested in Hunt/Tybura than Werdum/Tybura. No big deal because the co-main event was pretty solid am I right? Well then Joanne Calderwood pulls out and our co-main is Bec Rawlings vs Jessie Rose Clark. Even though I believe Jessy Rose-Clark is UFC caliber (she's got that Val Letourneau record where she fought a lot of badasses early in her career), that's still not a co-main event caliber fight. Beyond that you have fights ranging in quality from decent action fights to Australian filler to "look we need at least 10 fights!" type stuff. It's really no different from last year's November Australia card which was ALSO ruined by injury. Sorry Aussies!

Fights: 13

Debuts: 4 (Shane Young, Nadia Kassem, Jessy Rose- Clark, Tai Tuivasa)

Fight Changes/Injury Cancellations:  4 (Mark Hunt OUT, Fabricio Werdum IN vs Marcin Tybura/Joanna Calderwood OUT, Jessy Rose-Clark IN vs Bec Rawlings/Jeremy Kennedy OUT, Shane Young IN vs Alexander Volkanovski/Jesse Taylor OUT, Tim Means IN vs Belal Muhammad)

Headliners (fighters who have either main evented or co-main evented shows in the UFC): 6 (Fabricio Werdum, Marcin Tybura, Jake Matthews, Dan Kelly, Will Brooks, Anthony Hamilton)

Fighters On Losing Streaks in the UFC:  5 (Will Brooks, Jake Matthews, Bec Rawlings, Anthony Hamilton, Eric Shelton)

Fighters On Winning Streaks in the UFC:  3 (Belal Muhammad, Marcin Tybura, Alexander Volkanovski)

Stat Monitor for 2017:

Debuting Fighters (Current number: 34-29)- Shane Young, Nadia Kassem, Jessy Rose- Clark, Tai Tuivasa, Adam Wieczrowek

Short Notice Fighters (Current number: 20-31-1)- Fabricio Werdum, Shane Young, Jessy Rose-Clark, Tim Means

Second Fight (Current number: 24-35)- Ashkan Mokhtarian, Frank Camacho, Rashad Coultier

Cage Corrosion (18-11-1)- Alex Chambers, Bec Rawlings

Twelve Precarious Ponderings

1- Perhaps NO single relationship in the UFC is as tortured as the relationship between Dana White and Fabricio Werdum. Werdum was the guy who was supposed to lose to "the guy" but he's just kept winning and winning and winning and so on so forth. I wonder if Dana grew to like Werdum due to the fact that he's well spoken (more on that later) and ultra reliable to make it to fight night. They gave Werdum main events in Brazil, they hired him to be their lead Spanish color commentator, had a reality show with he and Cain etc etc. At the same time it feels like the two never really ever liked one another with Dana on two-three separate occasions giving Werdum the "That's nice but you should've finished the fight" speech to Werdum's Reebok comments which got him yanked off commentary duties. They built a stadium show around the legends of Brazil and Werdum was the one guy who came up short in humiliating fashion. Werdum's use of "maricon" is the sort of thing that is simply unacceptable for a major org.  There are TWO major instances of Werdum being selective about his next fight (He turned down Stipe Miocic in a short notice fight and turned down Overeem similarly last year). Beyond all that though, Werdum's still a quality capable HW which the UFC needs. He's a proud Brazilian who can headline events which the UFC are in short supply of. What's more is dude stays busy. Last year he fought in May (after bowing out in February), September and was scheduled to fight in December.  This year he's fought in July, October and now a month later in November. Dude STAYS active and that matters in today's UFC. They sort of need one another---and that's a pretty good way to describe this pairing at this point.

2- I wonder if Marcin Tybura is going to be a guy who is as valuable as a pseudo Russian (M-1 ties) than he will be as a Polish born HW.

3- I wonder if the move to 170 lbs is the equivalent of do or die for Jake Matthews. The Aussie is very young, talnted and he came into the UFC with a bevy of hype as potentially the BIG star from Australia. It has been an uneven ride thus far for Jake Matthews affter two submission wins over limited opposition. A loss to James Vick followed and since then? It's been uneven. He looked FANTASTIC vs Johnny Case but against Akhbar Arreola, Kevin Lee and Andrew Holbrook he just hasn't looked the same. He's powerful but when he's met by somebody who isn't going to be bullied, Matthews wilts. His striking has long been a problem and I don't think it's gotten any better recently. He has this propensity to duck and flail for a takedown when hurt which cost him vs Kevin Lee and James Vick. He's moving up in weight which might be a better move since perhaps cutting too much weight for his muscular frame could be a problem. Bojan Velickovic is a big burly welterweight who hits hard but has a propensity to getting taken down. It's fair matchmaking; pitting strength vs weakness for both fighters.

4- Jessy Rose-Clark has a 7-4 record which on paper makes you think she's probably not going to be something of another. I won't begrudge anybody for feeling that way BUT Pannie Kianzad was a top regional prospect when they faced off. She gave some problems to Sarah Kaufman and Pam Sorenson in decision losses and has wins over some undefeated prospects like Janay Harding. Her last time out she beat Carina Damm on like a week's notice which is a no joke type of win. I don't know if she'll beat Bec Rawlings BUT I think some people are going to be surprised.

5- No matter the country, Tim Means vs Belal Muhammad is a pretty solid fight. Means has a well earned reputation as a poor man's Matt Brown with his love of knees and elbows in all different types of set ups.  Means has a well known reputation as a kill or be killed type of fighter but he showcased some restraint and poise in his last fight. On the other hand, Belal Muhammad has been a bit TOO poised in his more recent days. His offensive output tends to wane and he's gone away from some of the weapons which made him a promising prospect. That said, he's still tremendously gifted and both he and Means could create for some magic.

6- I think it speaks to the decline of Will Brooks that he's probably the best fighter on this card but he's sandwiched on the FS1 prelims between Ryan Benoit/Askhan Mokhtarian and Adam Wierowczek/Anthony Hamilton. Brooks' losses have been frustrating as he got outathlete'd vs Charles Oliveira and his fight vs Alex "Cowboy" Oliveira was a catchweight after Cowboy just showed up all kinds of out of shape. He SHOULD be able to run right through Nik Lentz but Brooks seems so hit or miss these days that you simply can't bet on anything anymore.

7- Reminder that Ryan Benoit iced Sergio Pettis and gave Brandon Moreno trouble in a close loss. The problem is that in a sea of about 10 flyweights resting outside the top 5 (Mighty Mouse, Benavidez, Cejudo, Pettis and Formiga), you have a bunch of guys just not fighting frequently enough or just fighting in nowhere's land on the card.

8- Dan Kelly vs Elias Thorodorou is your smoke break. Adjust your schedule accordingly. Two similar like minded fighters except one is 58 years old.

9- I'm glad to see Eric Shelton getting a third chance after two tough split decision losses vs established competition. There's nothing wrong with facing Alejandre Pantoja and Jarred Brooks and walking out with split decision losses. Jenel Lausa is a step backwards in reputation BUT his talent level can challenge Shelton.

10- I now I mention this all the time but I'm always happy when multiple flyweight fights are on the same card. I want this division to survive and thrive.

11- I don't know if Tai Tuivasa is going to be any good as a fighter but any under 25 year old heavyweight has my attention immediately.

12- It's not gonna win any beauty contests but Damien Brown vs Fran Camacho is a lock to be one of the wildest wackiest fights of the night. Slopfest of all slopfests right here, man.