#webster 4

Pregnancy Announcement

The Websters announced Alyssa’s 4th Pregnancy in People on August 6, 2020.  Due February 17, 2021, Alyssa was 85 Days—i.e., 12 Weeks, 1 Day—Along, at the time.  (Note—Several of Alyssa’s IG Posts, e.g., #34Weeks and #38Weeks, actually didn’t match up with a February 17th Due Date.  However, Alyssa gave that Due Date initially—then, confirmed it yet again just days before giving birth.  Based on this...  It seems her Due Date was February 17, and wasn’t changed.  Alyssa simply isn’t a stickler for accuracy in Instagram hashtags!)

Alyssa + John’s Data.   Here is how far along Alyssa was when she announced each of her 4 Pregnancies—

#1 / Allie   137 Days Along   (Due April 10, 2015.)

#2 / Lexi   145 Days Along   (Due January 27, 2017.)

#3 / Zoey   136 Days Along   (Due April 2, 2018.)

#4 / Maci   85 Days Along   (Due February 17, 2021.)

As you can see, the Websters announced Pregnancy #4 quite a bit earlier than any of her prior pregnancies.  Before Pregnancy #4, it was ‘typical’ of Alyssa + John to announce 139 Days Along (or 19 Weeks, 6 Days).  This were more–or–less consistent too; it varied by a SD of only 5 Days.  With Maci, the Websters announced at a mere 85 Days Along—i.e., a whopping 54 Days and 10.8 SDs from their average.  Unsurprisingly, this shifted their data quite a bit...  Moving their ‘typical’ Pregnancy Reveal from 139 to 126 Days Along (–13 Days).

Bates Family Data.   Looking at the Bates Family Data, Maci’s data shifted the  ‘typical’ Pregnancy Announcement from 106 to 105 Days Along (–1 Day) (i.e., Exactly 15 Weeks).  Since then, the Bateses’ve had an additional 3 Pregnancy Reveals—Whitney w/ Jayden, Josie w/ Balka 2*, and Tori w/ Charlotte—which further shifted the ‘typical’ Pregnancy Reveal to 103 Days (–2 Days), 103 Days (No Significant Change), and 104 Days (+1 Day).     

Sex / Name Reveal

Alyssa + John did a Sex Reveal for Maci on September 12, 2020, on YouTube Live.  They did her Name Reveal shortly after, on September 18, 2020, also on YouTube.  Alyssa was 122 Days Along for the Sex Reveal and 128 Days Along for the Name Reveal.

Alyssa + John’s Data.  Here’s when and how Alyssa + John did Sex and Name Reveal for each of their 4 Pregnancies—

#1 / Allie   Did a joint Sex + Name Reveal, separate from the Pregnancy Reveal, at 196 Days Along (Exactly 28 Weeks).

#2 / Lexi   Simultaneous Pregnancy Announcement + Sex Reveal, when Alyssa was 145 Days Along (20 Weeks, 5 Days).  Separate Name Reveal at 229 Days Along.

#3 / Zoey   Simultaneous Pregnancy, Sex, and Name Announcement at 136 Days Along (19 Weeks, 3 Days).

#4 / Maci   Separate Pregnancy Announcement, Sex Reveal, and Name Reveal...  Sex Reveal on Day 122 (i.e., 17 Weeks, 3 Days).  Name Reveal on Day 128 (i.e., 18 Weeks, 2 Days).

Pre–Maci, the Websters typically did the Sex Reveal on Day 159, then a Name Reveal on Day 187.  Factoring in Maci, a Webster–‘typical’ Sex Reveal shifted from 159 to 150 Days Along (–9 Days), and a Webster–‘typical’ Name Reveal shifted from 187 to 172 Days Along (–15 Days).   

Bates Family Data.   Factoring in Maci to the Overall Bates Data, your ‘typical’ Sex Reveal shifted from 140 to 138 Days Along (–2 Days).  Since then, it has shifted again due to Sex Reveals for Jayden and Charlotte, and ‘typical’ went from 138 Days, to 137 Days (–1 Day), to 137 Days (No Significant Change).

Among Bateses, a joint Sex + Name Reveal remains the norm.  

Delivery vs. Due Date

Alyssa’s Due Date was February 17, 2021.  Maci arrived on February 9, making her 8 Days Early.   

Alyssa + John’s Data.  This is Alyssa’s earliest delivery, to date.  How’s how far along she was at delivery for each of her 4 Pregnancies—

#1 / Allie   1 Day Late

#2 / Lexi   1 Day Early

#3 / Zoey   5 Days Early   (Citation for Pregnancies 1–3.)

#4 / Maci   8 Days Early   

Bates Family Data.   This is tricky, since so many of the Bateses deliver early...  Let’s just exclude all births that occur before 37 Weeks (“early term”).  Prior to Maci’s arrival, excluding deliveries before 37 Weeks, your ‘typical’ GrandBates was 7 Days Early (6.7).  Factoring in Maci, it’s still 7 Days Early (6.8)...  There’s No Significant Change.      

Labor / Delivery Details

Prior to the birth, Alyssa stated that she planned to deliver at a hospital.  (With Pregnancies 1–3, used a birth center, so that was a change for her.)  Based on the photos, it appears that she did, indeed, deliver at a hospital.  Alyssa stated that John “help[ed] deliver and cut the cord.”  Also, they told People—

"We praise God for a healthy labor and delivery, and are very grateful Mommy and Baby are both doing well!”

That, plus Maci’s Birthweight / Length—6 Pounds, 3 Ounces and 18 Inches—are basically all we know about the delivery.  Sounds like there weren’t major complications, and probably no C–Section.

Alyssa + John’s Procreative Pace / ESOQ

In 2019, Alyssa dealt with debilitating cardiac arrhythmias, which required two ablation surgeries to correct.  During this time, Alyssa experienced symptoms on a daily basis, and struggled to function.  Given these serious health issues, Duggar Data will count Maci’s Child Spacing from the day of Alyssa’s second, successful ablation (August 29, 2019), rather than Zoey Joy’s DOB (March 28, 2018).  So, while the Zoey–to–Maci gap is really 1,049 Days, Maci receives an Adjusted Child Spacing of 530 Days.

So...  Here are the Child Spacings associated with Alyssa’s 4 Pregnancies—

#1 / Allie   322 Days  (Wedding to Allie)

#2 / Lexi  656 Days  (Allie to Lexi)

#3 / Zoey   426 Days  (Lexi to Zoey)

#4 / Maci   530 Days  (Surgery #2 to Maci)

When calculating Procreative Pace, Firstborn Allie doesn’t count.  So, up until Maci, Alyssa + John’s Procreative Pace was (656 + 426 Days) / 2 = 541 Days.  Now, factoring in Maci, that shifts to 537 Days (4 Days Faster).  It is a modest acceleration, but an acceleration nonetheless!

Their ESOQ is now 17 Children.   

When To Expect Webster #5

Given the data, here’s what’s now forecast for Webster #5—

Pregnancy News   March 2, 2022

Due Date   August 3, 2022