#wcvi

It saddens us tonight to announce the passing of a great friend of Wizengamot Quidditch. Mrs. Sofia Reichley loved coming to our games and supporting us however she could. For more than two years, her smiling face was a main staple in our world. While competing at MARC II last fall, she even made fresh hot chocolate to warm us up on the sidelines while we played. Especially as a college team, such selfless support and love is among the most appreciated kindnesses to encounter. We are so grateful to have known such a wonderful person. Thank you, Sofia. Tonight, our brooms are raised to you. <3

Winthrop University warm-ups - WCVI

Baylor University vs. UCLA at WCVI

Baylor University vs. UCLA at WCVI

Before publishing the #8 EOSR, which is obviously BGSU (spoiler alert), a discussion about various Quidditch play might be important.

There is no doubt that there was a significant disparity between regions at the world cup, with the SW, MW and W making a strong statement, and the S, MA, and NE sputtering and failing.

But as analysts we must first make sure that this is due to the strength in each region, not other circumstances for instance:

Weather-   It's not hard to see that 2/3 teams in the "underperforming" category come from relatively cold climates while 2/3 teams in the "overperforming" category come from relatively warm climates.

Regional date - 2/3 teams in the "underperformng" category had fall regional dates while 2/3 teams in the "overperforming" category had spring regional dates.

  But why 2/3 if these are true? Why not 3/3? The answer lies, in the exceptions to both rules, the South and the Midwest.

The South's downfall can easily be characterized - they had no depth. Even if Miami went on to the semifinals instead of Bowling Green, the region would still be characterized as weak. Every region other than the south has at least 3 teams in the Top 2 Tiers (SW - A&M,UT,Baylor; W-LBQC,USC,UCLA; MW-BGSU,Kansas,Michigan NE - Boston, Emerson,Hofstra, MA - Penn State, Maryland, Villanova). The South has one (Miami).

And this is not DUE to the fact that they had a poor performance at WC VI and weren't ranked. The Eighth Man media rankings on March 31 mentioned not a single Southern team other than Miami (i.e no team even got a vote to be on there).

But what about the Midwest? The crazy region that's an analyst's nightmare? You had Kansas barely make the playoffs in the Regional, you had BGSU beat by like half the Midwest by the time world cup came around, Marquette was dominant..... and it's a completely different story now.

  Why?

  Well first, let us differentiate the MW from the other teams that had fall regionals and cold climates and underperformed at WC VI (NE,MA). Unlike those regions, the MW actually got significant practice time in between their fall regional and the World Cup.  The number of games Boston played in the spring? 0. Emerson? 0. Penn State? 0.  Maryland? 6 against McGill and a bunch of Tier 3+ teams that were not even close to being competition. Villanova? 4, including 3 losses to Tier 3 and 4 teams.

The MW on the other hand ­had tough, strong competition all throughout, and perhaps most importantly the entire region was extremely close to each other in skill set (MW has 2 teams in the bottom Tier 1, and 5 teams in Tier 2). This allowed the region to avoid the slumps that the NE and MA had in the spring. But we are overlooking one more advantage the MW had due to not only the equal playing field but also the climate.  The SWIM ratios of each region in cross-region play at the world cup show a clear dominance by the Midwest region (although the NE had a higher SWIM% cross region at WC VI, they played weaker opponents).

Playing in winter (and sometimes snow) changes the dynamic of the game quite a bit. The games are slower and because of both the cold and the snow, offense deteriorates faster than defense. As everyone knows at the beginning of any game most top teams regardless of skill level stay relatively equal (BGSU kept up with UT for ~7 minutes, UCLA ~12 in the WCVI matches). So now we have a region in which SEVEN TEAMS are in competitive range with each other (this is just the first two tiers, Purdue and CMU both are excellent teams as well). This results in more games going into snitch range than in any other region. And the stats agree:

Seasonwide

9/20                       (45.0%)                 W-W games between a Tier 2+ team and a Tier 3+ team were ISR 10/21                     (47.6%)                 SW-SW games between a Tier 2+ team and a Tier 3+ team were ISR 28/41                     (68.3%)                 MW-MW games between a Tier 2+ team and a Tier 3+ team were ISR 6/10                       (60%)                    NE-NE games between a Tier 2+ team and a Tier 3+ team were ISR 3/8                         (37.5%)                 MA-MA games between a Tier 2+team and a Tier 3+ team were ISR

What this led to - the deadliest performance at WC of any region in seeking. Midwest Tier 1 and 2 teams had a 13/17 SWIM record against Non-Midwest teams at World Cup, better than any region except the NE, which faced weaker competition.

It's strange. I've usually drawn parallels between this team and #5 Miami - both teams have had really excellent seasons, marked by a relative let down at World Cup VI. Yet most people remember Miami's dominance early in the season and rank them still in the top tier. The same cannot be said of USC.

(Thank you Nicté for the correction to the Emerson game on my first post)

Why though? Miami has never been ranked #1 by probably the most reliable in-season polling, The Eighth Man's media rankings. USC has. Miami has faced a mediocre schedule - USC one of the three toughest schedules in the 2012-2013 season.

Two reasons come to mind, and these become the reasons USC is in fact ranked lower than Miami.

Miami has only lost once (20% or 25% ignoring the early season Lost Boys game) out of snitch range to Tier 1 teams, a -40 qpd against USC. USC has lost thrice (30%).

But why #7, you might ask, so close to the #6 Lost Boys team they were blown out against? Well for one the same reason #2 UCLA is ranked so close the #1 Texas team they were blown out by, and #3 Baylor is ranked so close to the #2 UCLA team they were blown out by. Mainly because head-on-heads are not an accurate way of being a sole measure of relative skill, but also because there is no team that should rank higher.

Of all the remaining Tier 1 teams, perhaps only Bowling Green would have the most popular support to deserve this #7 spot. Indeed, in a lovely twist, almost every EOSR that I have seen ranked the Lost Boys and BGSU within 1 rank of each other. These two teams are indeed closely linked - they were a completely different team at the start of the year, got their shit together around end of fall/winter, and turned things around completely at the World Cup.  But what does BGSU have that USC doesn't? A higher position at the World Cup? Please read my bazillion posts about why mere placement doesn't justify ranking. A perfect record against Tier 4 teams? No, both USC and BGSU have lost to Tier 4 teams in snitch range (USC 50-70* Stanford, BGSU 50 - 70* Rochester) Better wins against Tier 1 teams? No, in fact (7-3 USC, 4-2 BGSU). Let it also be noted that BGSU has never won against a Tier 1 team out of snitch range.

So out of the teams remaining, it remains obvious that USC should receive the #7 spot.

But perhaps other things should be noted here. In my eyes, USC 2012-2013 should have the designation of the scariest seeking threat in the top 3 tier IQA.

100% SWIM in Tier 1 and Tier 2. If you were playing USC last season, you hoped that you NEVER let them get within snitch range of you, because you would lose that battle. Baylor probably had the designation of scariest seeking threat in most people's eyes after they double-snitch grabbed a win over A&M and beat Texas twice in snitch range. But the Southwest elite are... relatively weak in seeking. The stats are all there, Baylor was probably the SW's best seeking team, and they lost by grabs to Kansas and Marquette. Even Baylor does not have the stats that USC has. Excluding a snitch grab loss against Stanford... USC has been perfect.

perfect.

Many people discount seeking or losses in snitch range - "luck" they might say if they were up by about 20. But seeking is part of the game, like any other position. Live with it. UT's seeking was the difference between the domination they had this year and being perhaps the best team in Quidditch we'll ever see. The difference between almost perfect, and complete perfection.

This is perhaps the strongest reason I believe USC should be ranked #7 instead of ~#11 or #23, or even #8 where I had them in my intuitive rankings.  Because if USC was even close to being in snitch range of ANY team even down 20/30, I'd bet without qualms that USC would win that game. USC couldn't hold certain teams to within snitch range (#2 UCLA and #6 Lost Boys). That's why they're ranked #7 and not #3. But there is no team remaining that can boast the resume USC has.

6. Lost Boys

Iiiiiii'm back... and in addition to my vacation, this one took longer to write because community teams just are .... difficult....  to analyze.

Just compare the two sheets below, split along the time I believe the Lost Boys completely changed direction.

This is without the split, where Lost Boys look quite bad indeed....

and then:

is the lost boys ignoring the first couple games. COMPLETELY DIFFERENT PICTURE -.-

I will analyse this based on the second picture only. Not much to be said here in the analysis. The Lost Boys, ignoring the games where they had a completely different roster, become one of the few teams with a positive QP-QPA against Tier 1 teams, along with Miami, UCLA, and UT.

Anyone merely looking at these stats would not say that the Lost Boys should be ranked lower, so I will prove my case as to why I believe the Lost Boys shouldn't be ranked higher. Lost Boys, like Miami, had only one win out of snitch range against a Tier 1 team, (Miami techincally has 0 if you count early season Lost Boys as a Tier 2 team). IN FACT - EVERY SINGLE TIER 1 STAT from WISR to BLOWONOUT% is the EXACT SAME FOR MIAMI AND LOSTBOYS.