Warshell: Antipax alpha 0.1.7
I think I figured out the defense stats for each card in the game so far.
My first idea was to rank them based on area, with larger states having lower defense and smaller states having higher defense. I ranked the 50 states and DC from biggest to smallest, and called it a day
But this didn’t feel right, so I changed it to a bell curve with so so that states on either end of the spectrum, big or small, have low defense, and middling states have high defense.
First I ranked all the states and DC by area, with Alaska and Texas on top, and Rhode Island and DC on bottom. Then I broke them down into 10 levels, and color coded them with the weakest at the ends and strongest in the middle.
Then I reranked them 1 to 51 based on their position in this bell curve, with Iowa and Illinois on top, and Alaska and DC on bottom.
This was better, but there was still something off about it. I thought it was weird that California and Texas would have such low defense stats, so for my third try I ranked them based on population density instead; I figured that a state’s ability to defend itself relies just as much on manpower as it does physical size; more people means a stronger defense, so I ranked them from densest to least dense.
But this put Rhode Island back on top, which still felt wrong; it’s s small state, smaller than some cities, it doesn’t matter how many people it has per square mile, it would be plowed straight through like it wasn’t even there. I needed a way to account for both size and density, so I came up with my fourth and I think final idea.
I took their rankings 1-51 in both area and population density, and averaged he two values to create a new ranking which accounted for everything. Washington, DC is super small but also super dense, so those factors would cancel out and make it middle-of-the-road at best. Meanwhile Alaska is big and empty, so it belongs where it is. Iowa may be the centermost state in terms of area, but given its low population it needs to be knocked down a peg or two. The new ranking adjusts the values accordingly
The states with the best defense are New York, Illinois, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, because they’re not too big, not too small, and and have high enough populations to defend themselves in battle. Nevada, Wyoming, New Mexico, Montana, and Alaska are all big and empty, so they are easily defeated.
I think this is finally the perfect ranking, now I just need to assign them defense points on a scale from 1 to 10. My original plan was to divide them up into 10 levels with 5 states each (6 for DC’s level), but I didn’t like how evenly spaced that was. There should be more weaker cards than stronger cards; the strongest cards should be rare, so I still need to figure that out.
If I use a log scale, it works out perfectly
Defense 1: Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, Maine, Utah, Idaho, Vermont, Oregon, Colorado,Arizona, Nevada, Wyoming, New Mexico, Montana, Alaska
Defense 2: DC, Michigan, Delaware, Hawaii, Minnesota, California, New Hampshire, North Dakota, West Virginia
Defense 3: South Carolina, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Texas, Rhode Island
Defense 4: Indiana, Arkansas, Massachusetts, Kentucky, New Jersey
Defense 5: Missouri, Tennessee, Maryland, Washington
Defense 6: Iowa, Louisiana, Alabama
Defense 7: Ohio, Wisconsin, Virginia
Defense 8: Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania
Defense 9: Illinois, Florida