Kentucky Oaks Trail Top 10
2012 was the first time in 3 years that we didn't have a Horse of the Year nominee (and eventual winner) that was a mare. The age of the great modern distaffers seemed lost despite an all-star year from Royal Delta, whom I personally feel was snuffed out of the highest honor category despite winning some big races and never dodging anyone. But, there's good news if you haven't noticed yourself in this newfangled "Derby points system" that kicks in this year: the fillies still have a chance to kick it into high gear.
I didn't think so last year or the year before that, but the three-year-old fillies this year look better than the colts. The girls have some brilliant speed and there are plenty that look like they could extend themselves to 9 furlongs.
Miffed - Trainer Philip Sims is spending his first winter at Oaklawn and appears to be good with the girls after Don't Tell Sophia rocketed out of anonymity to win the Pippin Stakes by 7 1/4 lengths. In this dark bay daughter of Purge he may have another winner lying in wait. Miffed, who is out of a modest Southern Halo mare, made her debut at Oaklawn recently, hanging at the back of the pack after breaking slowly and closed in to be second by 3/4 of a length. It's still early, but she works super well
What A Spot - It's early, but it's never that early for me to declare love for an Arch, and definitely not one who is a half to my Haskell (I) hero Coil! Trained by Thomas Procter, What A Spot made her debut a winning one after a long, tedious string of works at Santa Anita by closing into a fast pace. A game filly, let's hope she can continue improving from that start.
10) Walkwithapurpose - The Candy Ride [ARG] filly with Sagamore connections improved her winning streak to 4 in a row with a hard-pressed win in the Wide Country Stakes over 7 furlongs. Encountering a rough, bumpy, and at times wide journey, she still managed to eke out a victory by almost 5 lengths. I'm itching to see her try a graded stakes next.
9) Tiz Molly - Bred similarly to Well Armed (by Tiznow son Tiz Wonderful and out of a Notebook mare), this gray beauty won her only start last month at Santa Anita, but did so impressively at 24-1 odds. Breaking from post #9, she was 8th for much of the 5 1/2-furlong race and still managed to close in to snatch the win despite jockey Martin Pedroza dropping his whip.
8) Rose to Gold - After Awesome Feather, Calder's been my crutch for finding nice fillies under the radar. 3-for-4 on dirt, the Friends Lake filly was out-dueled last out by Sister Ginger in the Martha Washington Stakes in the waning moments of the race. While a spotless contender otherwise, it does bring to mind how well she might do down the road and how much she can continue improving.
7) Blonde Fog - A sharp second to Pure Fun in the Hollywood Starlet (I), the Divine Park filly has some speed and definitely some promise. She won her debut by a commanding 12 1/2 lengths over Fiftyshadesofhay, who went on to romp in the Santa Ysebel (III). I'd like to see her challenged on the front end, and I think she's Bob Baffert's best bet for the Oaks at the moment.
6) Pure Fun - A trendy pedigree she has not being by Pure Prize and out of a modest Key to the Mint mare, but Ken McPeek is known to tote a few legitimate underdogs from time to time and this has to be one of them. An amazing effort won her the Hollywood Starlet (I) in a last-to-first dive down the stretch in a deep field. She's just galloping now, but I have high hopes she'll grow into a fabulous three-year-old.
5) So Many Ways - Probably my favorite juvenile filly from last year and 3-for-3, the Sightseeing filly had the mental attitude of an experienced router waiting to pounce on the speedballs in her Spinaway (I) victory. She's looking good in her breezes and was sidelined from the Breeders' Cup to save her for the more important stuff (Maggi Moss is one smart owner), so I can't wait to see her start as a three-year-old. One hurdle: her trainer last year was Tony Dutrow and I don't know who's working with her now.
4) Dreaming of Julia - Even though she wasn't the flashiest and the most victorious by year's end, I find this A.P. Indy filly hard to forget. She was brilliant in her courageous duel with My Happy Face as a juvenile in Saratoga's Frizette (I). Fantastic distance sire on top, G1-winning sprinter as a dam, great mental attitude, being taken along slowly... why isn't Julia being talked about more?
3) Calistoga - Part of me still can't believe how I managed to miss this one handicapping Gulfstream Park one day. A daughter of super sire Speightstown and out of Styler (by the great Holy Bull and out of the talented stakes winner Set Them Free), the chestnut Mott charge needed no introduction in her debut race. She jetted straight to the lead with awesome fractions and won the 7-furlong race for fun by 5 1/2 and earned an admirable speed figure for a newbie. This filly seems to have it all laid out for an ascent up the Oaks trail.
2) Flashy Gray - The Flashy Bull filly lived up to her name when she broke her maiden one day at Churchill Downs, skipping away from a decent herd of fillies to win by 10 unurged lengths. She returned recently to make her sophomore debut, winning again in the same sort of style by nearly 5 with new connections West Point. I have tremendous respect for breeder Brereton Jones and trainer Bill Mott, and this filly looks super talented already.
1) Smitten - It's wrong to deny Larry Jones as one of the best filly conditioners after all the work he's done, and after finding success last year with Believe You Can, he's got another good one flying under the radar with this Tapit filly who has been, and remains, at the top of my Oaks list. A half sister to the ill-fated but brilliant J C's Pride and connected the same as Eight Belles, she works like a champ and is the valiant type you'd expect from those mentions. She's crawling back after a poor trip in the Silverbulletday, where she broke badly to trail 13+ lengths while being 5-wide early, but she still closed in superbly to be 3rd by 1 3/4 lengths.