First of all thank you for enjoying my analysis! I’m really happy to hear that.

To be honest it’s pretty hard to predict how things will go in the future.

I’ve found pretty peculiar how the whole cast was basically made to converge on Sapporo where there are convict number 22 (Jack) and 23 (Ueji) but we still don’t know the whereabouts of convict 24.

Normally you’ve such a situation at the end of the story, but, unless it turns out that convict 24 got missing for some reason (he got killed, he got eaten by a bear or a fish, whatever) or that he’s actually present but in disguise (among friends we joked that Vasily was actually a convict who escaped and managed to get back to Russia... which obviously it's extremely unlikely but still fun to think), we aren’t at the end of the gold hunt yet.

The real problem with the Sapporo situation is that Tsurumi is converging with his men there.

Tsurumi carried with himself in Karafuto 16 men but he might have left some on stand by in Wakkanai. Plus he told Tsukishima and Koito to converge on Sapporo as well and they might bring other men in reinforcement.

Considering Tsurumi has 100 men under himself... well, even if Asirpa’s group and Hijikata’s group join forces they’re rather outnumbered as they would only be 13 (with Ogata 14 but I doubt he’ll join them).

In two days Jack is expected to strike again and by then I think Tsurumi would surely have the numerical advantage. So I’ll say either the Asirpa/Hijikata group find Jack first or they’re going to have troubles dealing with him and would do better to scatter and try to get convict number 24... or still hunt for Ueji... unless Ogata got him first.

I expect Ariko to be ordered to kidnap Asirpa... and possibly to steal Hijikata’s skin.

For a confrontation between Tsurumi’s many men and them I would say the Asirpa’s group needs to join forces with the Sofia’s group so as to have an equal number of men... otherwise if they come to a fight I really don’t expect them to win, at best they can escape after making some serious damage to Tsurumi’s files and probably receiving damage as well... but it sure seems as if Noda is setting up things for the big climax.

Overall, if we’ll get a fight it shouldn’t be one to one as we’re talking of men all used to war. In wars back then there were charges and you didn’t really get an opponent just for you but many would try to attack you and you would try to attack many.

I don’t really look forward to a battle Abashiri style exactly due to this, I would prefer things to involve more strategy than just two huge factions fighting each other... but it’s kind of hard to predict how things will go.

We talk of groups but actually there’s plenty of interests at play here so people can change sides very easily.

We have:

- Tsurumi who wants to form a military dictatorship

- Hijikata who wants to form the republic of Ezo

- Kikuta who represents Central’s interest and who’s in an allegiance with Ariko even though Ariko is supposed to serve Tsurumi and be in the Hijikata group

- Asirpa who wants to protect the Ainu interests

- Sugimoto who wants the money for Umeko and who doesn’t want Asirpa to be involved in a war

- Sofia who wants to bring change in Russia with the Ainu gold

- Usami who’s technically loyal to Tsurumi but is kind of an unpredictable oddball

- Koito who wants to make sure Tsurumi’s goal is one he can accept

- Tsukishima who’s... in between Koito and Tsurumi and might not have truly picked a side yet

- Tanigaki who might come back for... reasons

- Ogata who has his own goal and isn’t sharing it

- Boutarou who wants his island on which to rule

- Nikaido who’s in this just to kill Sugimoto but in the past was in an allegiance with Ogata

And those are just the people with a strong determination to reach their goal to the point they could do something unpredictable.

Then there are the other guys, all with goals but who I don’t expect to switch sides or do unpredictable things.

It’s a lot because each of them is taking care of his own interests and could end up in conflict with those who’re actually his allies.

Add 3 missing convicts to the mix and what happens next is pure mystery.

So... even if the close future seems hard to predict, how would the story end?

Well, this is equally hard but my wish is for no one to get the gold.

Well, if I were to be honest I wish for the Ainu to get the gold and their own state (yeah, I vote for Wilk’s idea in short), but for how the story is set up I think it’s extremely unlikely Noda will let this happen. I think he’ll probably go for a story that will end resuming the ‘historical continuity’ hence the situation in Hokkaido won’t change.

No military dictatorship, no republic of Ezo but sadly not even a far eastern federation for minorities... which makes sense as to create a new state by freeing a territory from a domination is hellish hard and requires not only money but a lot of support from other states otherwise even if the newborn state managed to free itself it might end up being swallowed by another state.

So, since the Ainu can’t have back their gold or, if they were to have it back it would probably solely to hide it again so as not to create a completely different future... well, at this point I prefer no one to get it, for the gold to either sink or be buried under a mountain or be blasted away or whatever.

I get the boys have fought hard for it but it wasn’t theirs in the first place and overall I don’t think the theme of the story should be they should get rewarded for trying to get the gold to fix their problems instead than facing them and solving them on their own.

Of course i would love it if they could understand the real gold was the friends they made along the way and everyone could have a happy ending because I love them all and want them happy... but I’m not sure Golden Kamuy will go for such a solution.

Among the things foreshadowed there were Nagakura and Hijikata’s death, as they were walking on the wrong side of the survival road (Shiraishi managed to escape, good for him)...

...and therefore for Asirpa, Sugimoto, Ushiyama and Ogata to survive.

If it’s true that who kills a tiger has to face a life of misfortune and we can consider ‘tigers’ also who’s named as such, Koito, Tsukishima and Tanigaki are all responsible for Kiro’s death (Kiro’s name Yulbars means ‘tiger’)... and it’s possible that, if Sugimoto had an involvement in Toraji’s death (it’s suspected he mercy killed him) the same fate will befall on him as well (Toraji was nicknamed ‘Tora-chan’ and ‘tora’ means “tiger”).

I’d like for Shiraishi to find a goal instead, possibly one related to Kiro, maybe helping Kiro’s family, or helping Asirpa to protect the Ainu.

I’d like for Asirpa to find her own way to protect Ainu, not through war but through a more pacifical method and maybe a better use of media. The movie idea wasn’t bad but it was very poorly executed.

It’s difficult to figure what would happen to the rest of the cast because I really would love for them all to be happy... but I fear this won’t be what Golden Kamuy will end with. Some of them will probably die or end up worse than they started or nothing will change for them and it’ll be all for nothing. Or maybe not really nothing as they might have gained something but not what they were hoping for.

Still... it’s difficult to say what will happen as really, my wish is for them to be happy so I’m probably not impartial enough to view the possibilities with a cold head and for this I apologize.

However it’s one that’s really hard to answer because there are too many variants to predict.

Let’s start with the easiest variant.

If what the doctor has said and Ogata was really about to die..

...yes, I think Sugimoto would have killed him with his bayonet so that Ogata’s death wouldn’t rest on Asirpa’s shoulders.

Had the doctor said Ogata would recover and had Ogata not made an attempt to escape... well, things become harder to predict.

Sugimoto made clear he wanted to kill Ogata regardless.

It’s not just what he said when he discovered Ogata and Kiro stole Asirpa...

...or how when Enonoka was kidnapped and he tried to kill her kidnapper it’s clear in his mind he was seeing Enonoka as Asirpa and the guy as Ogata...

...or how he said he hopes Ogata’s motive for doing what he does is greed so he won’t hesitate when killing him...

...we also have the scene, after Ogata’s escape, in which he expresses this wish.

This is relevant because it would be much more advantagious for Sugimoto if Ogata were to never show up again yet he hopes he will so he can kill him. Sugimoto is nursing a grudge toward Ogata that’s starting to look as big as the one Nikaidou nurses for him.

However if Ogata has remained captive in their hands Sugimoto couldn’t just go and stab him or he would have done it on the ice field.

It’s clear he doesn’t want Asirpa to know about his intentions.

In chap 200 Asirpa gets worried when she thinks Sugimoto will try to shoot Ogata and Sugimoto says he’ll aim for the horse but Sugimoto’s shoots are way too high for someone who’s aiming at the horse and while Sugimoto’s aim isn’t good, it isn’t so bad the bullets would all fly that high, especially considering Sugimoto didn’t even try to lower his aim a bit so as not to risk to hit Ogata but focus on hitting the horse.

In fact we can see Ogata is bent over the horse as he escapes, and the first shoot flies around his shoulder’s heigh. He then straighten up and spreads his arms and one shoot flies below his right arm (therefore it’s probably at the same height of when he was huched over the horse) while the other flies ABOVE OGATA’S ARM.

If anything Sugimoto has raised his aim, not lowered it, probably hoping to hit Ogata’s head.

So overall the three shoots are all way too high to be aimed at the horse and show no sign of Sugimoto lowering his aim.

This makes clear he was aiming at Ogata, hoping to hit him and then to tell Asirpa he shoot him by mistake.

Asirpa might not be the only thing that’s stopping Sugimoto from killing Ogata.

As Sugimoto is cooperating with Tsurumi he might be under the impression Tsurumi wants Ogata alive to interrogate him, put him under trial for deserting and then murder him.

Sugimoto is not under a big urge to be Ogata’s murderer after all, he’s fine if it’s Vasily who kills him as long as Ogata is dead.

So, back to the story, if Ogata weren’t to die due to his wound, nor were to try to escape and therefore Sugimoto weren’t to have chances to discreetly murder him, Sugimoto would probably be forced to hold back his murdering wish, unless he were to try and create the circumstances himself.

Tanigaki despises Ogata and Shiraishi is not really happy with what Ogata has done in Abashiri but I don’t know if they would go so far as too cooperate with Sugimoto to create a chance to kill Ogata.

Now... Koito and Tsukishima.

Koito likely wouldn’t mind having Ogata killed but he’s clearly under the impression they’ve to bring him back or he would have stomped his foot down, refused to give him any sort of medical aid and killed him on the ice field or attempt to.

Instead he just let Sugimoto take Ogata away and the Nivkh to try to cure him first, and to let the doctor check on him later (albeith he wasn’t really that willing on that last part but more because he thought it was an unnecessary risk than anything else).

In short Koito is under the impression they’ve to keep Ogata alive and take him to Tsurumi to squeeze info out of him... however we don’t really know if this is the plan.

Tsukishima might be under orders to secretly blow Ogata’s brains out...

...because Tsurumi might think Ogata wouldn’t talk no matter the torture and he might do more harm than good.

In short it’s better to kill him off and be done with him so Tsukishima might have been willing to help Sugimoto to stage Ogata’s murder.

But let’s assume they were meant to bring him back to Tsurumi.

Tsurumi hadn’t been chasing Ogata as much as Ogata feared he would. Maybe that’s because Tsurumi has an ace to use against Ogata hidden in his sleeve.

In this case then yes, they would have forced Ogata to come back with them, likely keeping him tied and under surveillance so Ogata would have to attempt to escape another time to avoid being handed to Tsurumi and tortured and killed... or, in case Ogata suspects Tsurumi has means to blackmail him into obedience, to just do so.

However you’ve to add into the mix Vasily, who this time would attack them to have a rematch with Ogata with Ogata being there.

It’s highly unlikely they would give Ogata a rifle as Ogata would be too dangerous with one but Vasily also wouldn’t let go chasing them until he has his fight with Ogata.

I like to think Vasily wouldn’t content himself with just killing a tied man so that he would be number one again... but this might be just me.

In short Vasily might end up creating the setting in which Ogata could escape... or the situation would force them to either kill Vasily or Ogata in order to stop Vasily from chasing them trying to force Ogata to fight him.

There’s another thing to consider, that Ogata might know info that would either be very valuable to the point he could force them into doing something... or would create discord in the group and use them... but it would be a very difficult route for him as he’s mutually distrusted.

It worked with Koito merely because Ogata gave him hints but didn’t really tell him much, forcing Koito to think things for himself so that in the end it’s Koito’s reasoning what Koito’s defend, not Ogata’s words.

So... overall I think that if Tsurumi hadn’t issued an order to kill Ogata what they should officially do is try to bring him back with them... and what Ogata should try to do is to escape from them... whcih could however provide them with a chance to try and kill him.

Long story short, I think likely Ogata not escaping right after the doctor fixed his wound would have only meant he would need to do it later.

Ultimately probably Noda handled the mess the best way he could.

He let Ogata escape pretty early on so that the group wouldn’t have to worry about bringing him back or trying to kill him, letting the focus move again on just Sugimoto and Asirpa on one side and Tsukishima and Koito on the other... until their disfunctional group crashes as Asirpa refuses to let herself be handed to Tsurumi.

At least... that’s what I think.

As I’m not Noda I can’t really know what would be of Ogata had he not escaped, just make speculations.

1) Do you think Asirpa is absolutely needed to solve the code? I know its suppose to be a code from her father but its not like Hijikata or the others are dumb. Is there a chance they can solve it?

I think what should be needed is the info Asirpa hold (the key to the code being her father’s Ainu name).

As we’re still lacking info I don’t know if Asirpa might hold other memories/knowledge/whatever that’s exclusive to her and needed to have to solve the code.

So far I view the word ‘Orkew Oskoni’ as the equivalent of a password or of a pin of 8 characters.

We don’t know exactly how it should be used, if it points to a specific skin, to 8 specific sins to the order in which the 24 skins have to be placed but still, this would mean that solving the code without the key Asirpa hold is wouldn’t be just a matter of intelligence, but also of finding the right combination along an amazing amount of combinations.

If Wilk played his cards well, considering they don’t have a pc in which to input the data and that can quickly calculate all the possibilities, figuring out the right combination would require from them either amazing luck or a lifetime.

Now... Tsurumi and Hijikata are highly intelligent but they’ve not te slightest idea of what the ‘password’ could be.

However Ogata is in a slightly different position as he knows Asirpa connected the dots when she heard the story behind her father’s  name, so he is the only one who has a info, that the password is connected to the name ‘Wilk’.

Said this he might figure out that the password is actually in Ainu and get ‘Horkew’... but I don’t think he has any means to know the second part of the password is ‘Oskoni’ as there were tons of words that Asirpa’s mom could have picked and we don’t evenknow if Ogata has enough Ainu knowledge (or knows someone with enough Ainu knowledge) that can help him fish up candidates for the second word.

As we don’t really know how this “keyword” has to be used it’s hard to say if just having half of it can lead Ogata to figure out the solution to the code.

2) Say they never find the last skin. Do you think they need it or can they solve it from having all the others?

I do expect the code will be solved.

This means either the last skin will be found or they’ll manage to finish solving it without it (for example because the info on it were unnecessary or by using the info about where the gold was previously hidden).

We do’t really know how the ‘keyword’ has to be used and what it’s meant to point out.

Asirpa speculated each skin has at least a kanji that can be read as one of the syllabes of her father’s name.

A Japanese fan has studied all the skins currently found and had found out some of them actually have more than 1 kanji that can be read as such.

I have my own personal theory about how the ‘keyword’ is meant to point out that Hijikata’s skin is actually the only skin needed and the others are just red herrings... but a previous popular theory was that the ‘keyword’ is meant to point out only 8 skins are needed.

Alternatively the ‘keyword’ can point out in which order the skins need to be placed or it can point out to the parts of the skins you need to use (each tattooed skin can be cut in 8 parts).

So... well, as long as we don’t now how the ‘keyword’ needs to be used it’s hard to predict how needed is the 24th skin.

Still, I expect for the code to be solved because it would feel a bit like a waste if Noda had created a riddle he didn’t mean to solve. Anyway we’ll see.

Thank you for reading my predictions and enjoying when they come true!

I try my best to guess what Noda will do, so I won’t deny I’m also happy when I guess it right and I’m happy to know there’s someone else that’s happy about it!

This is such a well planned story, I love to analyze it but Noda is also a master at surprising us so I’m never sure I guessed right until he reveals it. I’m actually really curious to see how things will advance further.

In regard to everyone’s goal I think at this point in the story everyone is still allowed to be creative in regard to what wasn’t canonically stated. I mean, there’s plnety of theories but there’s also plenty of things that aren’t stated in canon yet, with some theories getting disproved by canon itself as soon as it’s revealed... or changed because Noda makes changes in the volumes so...

However in regard to the gold being a massive amount we’ve a canon confirmation that it was actually as massive as the cast think it is.

So we know it was a lot.

The old Ainu guy Boutarou is talking about is this one.

...and the ‘all those years ago’ are actually less than 10 years.

Noda originally have Asirpa say the Nopperabou incident in which Asirpa’s father died was 5 years before the series start... but by the time they reach Abashiri, in short around 7 months afterward we learn Wilk was in jail by 7 years... which probably means Noda retconned thedate in which the Nopperabou incident took place. almost a year has gone by so it was around 8 years before.

Why is this relevant?

The gold was supposedly still whole when the Nopperabou incident took place.

Afterward Tsurumi was clearly keeping an eye on Hokkaido, if someone had found the gold and had tried to convert it in money Tsurumi would have noticed. We see how the news of Heita managing to make 50 yens managed to spread fast.

Someone converting such a huge amount of gold as the one Boutarou spoke of would end up on all the national newspapers. Even if he were to turn to the Yakuza in order to convert it secretly, unless he were a well guarded guy, they would probably follow him, find where he keeps the gold and kill him to steal it... but again, even if they had better ways to be discreet, they wouldn’t be able to hide getting so rich so fast.

Tsurumi would have figured out.

There’s also to say that with so many people searching for the Ainu gold someone stumbling on it by mistake would be hilarious but likely unlikely as Wilk probably hid it well.

In a way that huge amount of gold is untouchable exactly because it’s too huge to go unnoticed.

For how I see it the only chances for the gold to ‘disappear’ are:

- tossing it in the Shikotsu volcano. I’m not sure if it was possible but the vulcano was active, its last eruption back then was dated 1894 and the following is dated 1909. So, kind of like in Lord of the Ring ‘their precious’ ends up melted away.

- tossing it in lake Shikotsu which is really deep. Boutarou managed to reach Wilk’s boat which capsized but if the boat had actually sunk deeper probably not even Boutarou would have managed to reach it.

- actually, as it’s gold dust they might even toss it in the water. Gold panners would probably notice how a river all of sudden became extremely filled with gold but if they toss it in the sea it might disperse more easily.

- let it fall into some ground fracture so extremely deep it just can’t be recovered.

- bury it under a mountain. As in hide it in a deep cave and then cause the cave to completely crumble so that if one really wants to find the gold, not only he has to start digging a new Lærdal Tunnel but he also has to make sure he knows where to dig or he’ll turn the mountain into a gruyère cheese before tracking it down.

- hiding it in an even better place.

- I genuinely doubt they can find enough aqua regia to dissolve it all so they can hide it in bottles and then pour it into the sea but it would be surely an intriguing solution.

- Kiro would suggest using explosive but apparently to destroy gold you need to cause a nuclear reaction so... well, I don’t recommend it.

- melting it and turning it into something else, then covering it with a patina of cheap metal and sell it as something that’s not made of gold. Though I think it would take a lifetime so this too is probably a project that wouldn’t work.

Of course many of the above suggestions would require someone to actively go and try to destroy the gold... which wouldn’t be so weird since the Ainu believed it to be cursed.

So yes, it’s possible for them to find the place in which Wilk hid it only to find a note saying:

‘I’ve disposed of the cursed gold so it won’t hurt people anymore.

Go back to your life instead than keep on chasing it.

Best regards,

a well meaning person.’

Still, it’s up to you to decide what to do with your story. Don’t let your creativity be stopped by this sort of details and if you feel you can make a better story by bypassing canon, just do it.

I wish I could say I can speak Japanese but no, I don’t.

I just research a lot about the words used in the sentences (sometimes this includes checking for past usages, wordplays or the meaning of all the kanji used to write them) and the grammar involved... and, of course I listen/ask/bother a lot PEOPLE WHO CAN SPEAK JAPANESE  to get even more detailed explanations (by the way thank you to you all who put up with my nagging).

Ultimately, after all this researching I ended up learning something but it’s definitely not enough to say I can speak Japanese.