#vicvotes18

Well, wow. Anybody who would have predicted this outcome at 5:55pm yesterday would have been called a lunatic. Less than an hour and a half later, and Antony Green was already calling it for the ALP.

There have been some amazing hot takes in the aftermath. I have to wonder if the Liberal Party will learn much from this. Obviously the instability in Canberra was not the only cause of this rout, but it clearly played a role. Also, in campaigning on state-based issues such as law and order, Matthew Guy was using a playbook common to the party nationally. Its failure should suggest a need for new ideas and approaches. I expect, however, many in the federal party to say that “oh Victoria is the ~*progressive state*~ so we don’t need to worry about that elsewhere”. Never mind that a generation ago Victoria was the jewel in the Liberal Party’s crown.

Was this election also a disaster for the Greens? I think that this even needs to be asked suggests the answer is yes. They might come out of this with the same number of lower house seats, three, or they might be reduced to one. Their vetting of candidates has been deficient, and their internal squabbles have spilled into the public domain rather dramatically. In an election when the Greens should have ridden an anti-Liberal tide into office, picking up a seat or two alongside the ALP, they might not even win the one seat they should have cruised into: Brunswick. As somebody who has been an elector in Brunswick since 2007, I was sure the state seat would go Green sooner or later—and, after the massive South Ward result in the last local council elections (which covers much of the territory of the state seat), it seemed all but certain to go Green this election. We will have to wait and see if Tim Read sneaks in.

The problems facing the Greens also pertain to the upper house, and of course that’s my main interest as someone who has been blogging fervently about the microparties running for the Legislative Council and about the need to vote below the line. The Greens’ vote for the upper house is poor—their worst in over a decade—but the fact they might be reduced to just one seat while unknown microparties with a third or even a tenth of their vote could score two or more seats is an utter indictment of the Group Voting Ticket system of election.

The outcome in the lower house is clear: the Andrews government will have an easy majority. The outcome in the upper house will not be known for some time. The AEC has to tally all the votes and then push “the button” to calculate the complex preference flows and get the results. Anything before that point is pure guesswork. You will see people making claims based on election calculators but these assume 100% of voters went above the line. Across the state we’ve had about 10% of voters go below the line, which honestly is a bit disappointing even though it’s much better than the 4% below the line in 2010.

Every vote below the line makes a difference. It complicates the preference flows further, so at crucial points of exclusion in the count it might suppress some of the wacky flows. Kevin Bonham has a post on his blog that details some of the possible outcomes. I will reserve commentary for now, except to say two things. First, it is no small relief that, at the moment, the Aussie Battlers (they of the ever-changing bait-and-switch policy platform) do not look like getting in. Second, I think the upper house will be poorer for the presumed replacement of Fiona Patten and some capable Greens with a rabble of opportunists from parties that almost nobody supports and whose platforms are either incomplete or unsavoury.

Victoria goes to the polls on Saturday, and if you are unsure who some of these parties are, hopefully my reviews provide a little bit of clarity. Before I list them, I want to emphasise the importance of voting below the line.

You will receive two ballots: a small one for the Legislative Assembly and a large one for the Legislative Council. The Legislative Assembly, widely known as the lower house, has 88 single-member electorates and it is where government is formed. Each seat is filled by the candidate who wins over 50% of the vote (either outright or by preferences); whichever party can command a majority of seats in the Assembly—either in its own right or with support from other parties—forms government. For the Legislative Assembly you must number every square on the ballot to cast a valid vote.

The Legislative Council, widely known as the upper house, is the house of review. It has only eight electorates, but each electorate sends five members to Spring Street. If a candidate achieves a quota (16.7% of the vote, either outright or by preferences), they are elected. Your ballot gives you two ways to vote for the Legislative Council: above the line or below the line. DO NOT VOTE ABOVE THE LINE. If you vote above the line, you mark 1 beside the party of your choice and receive the preferences they have lodged with the Victorian Electoral Commission on what’s called a Group Voting Ticket. We don’t have this at federal elections any more, but Victoria still does it at state elections. This means that the party, not you, decides where your preferences go, and almost every party this year has made extremely dodgy deals to try to game the system. You cannot distribute your own preferences above the line and FRIENDS DO NOT LET FRIENDS VOTE ABOVE THE LINE. Break the preference harvesters’ cynical business model and vote below the line.

And how do you vote below the line? To cast a valid vote below the line, you must give at least five preferences, so number five candidates 1–5, and then keep numbering as far as you want. This guarantees your preferences only go to the people YOU want them to go to. I recommend you preference as far as possible—I will number every box. The complexities of the Legislative Council electoral system mean that it is in your interest to number as many boxes as you feel capable of numbering. But whatever you do, do not vote above the line; make sure you give at least five preferences below the line. Vote below the line to cast a powerful and meaningful vote.

Who are all these parties you’ve got to choose from? Here are my reviews. I have not reviewed the major parties (ALP, Green, Liberal/National) because I assume the ordinary voter, and especially a reader of this guide, already has an opinion on them. Almost every party is contesting every seat in the upper house; the number of parties contesting each lower house seat varies considerably. I have reviewed all independents for the upper house as well as the parties, but in the lower house I have only reviewed the independents for Brunswick. If you have independents standing in your lower house seat, I encourage you to Google them.

(The comment in brackets indicates the party’s general ideology.)

Animal Justice Party (single issue: animal rights)

Aussie Battler Party (right-wing populism / shady bait-and-switch ideology)

Australian Country Party (rural conservative)

Australian Liberty Alliance (racism and xenophobia)

Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party (cult of personality / tough on crime)

Health Australia (anti-vax, anti-fluoride Big Pharma conspiracy theorists)

Hudson for Northern Victoria (cult of personality)

Labour DLP, aka Democratic Labour Party (Catholic conservative)

Liberal Democratic Party (right-libertarian)

Fiona Patten’s Reason Party, formerly the Sex Party (civil libertarian)

Shooters, Fishers, and Farmers Party (pro-gun / anti-environmentalist)

Sustainable Australia (single issue: small population / anti-immigration)

Transport Matters (single issue: anti-Uber taxi lobbyists)

Victorian Socialists (socialism)

Voluntary Euthanasia Party (single issue: assisted dying)

Vote 1 Local Jobs (rural protectionism)

Save the Planet (single issue: climate action)

Independents: part one (District of Brunswick, Region of Eastern Victoria); part two (Region of South Eastern Metropolitan); part three (Regions of Western Metropolitan and Western Victoria)

You should also visit Cate Speaks, whose reviews are more detailed and less acerbic than mine. She has reviewed the independents in Pascoe Vale if that is your lower house seat. And if you are curious about my past reviews, check out the indices for the 2013 federal election, 2014 Victorian election, and 2016 federal election.

I will probably write some more stuff before the election is over, and I expect to be back next year for the NSW and federal elections, but I want to end this entry on a personal note. I was not intending to revive my blog for this election; I wrote a short Twitter thread instead. Read it here if you like your reviews in 280-character bites. Of course, preparing that thread whet my appetite for some sweet sweet political ranting. I did not think the Twitter thread would crack triple digits (I thought it niche enough that 20 or 30 likes would be a good showing); I absolutely never expected it to get shared on Facebook to the extent that I have received messages from friends and acquaintances saying “hey dude these people I know are sharing your Twitter thread”.

It’s the morning of the state election, and if you are still tossing up your options, hopefully the index to my party reviews will provide useful guidance and sufficient encouragement to vote below the line.

If you feel a little unenthused about your options, I do not blame you. Depending on the precise nature of your political inclinations and interests, I think the Greens, Socialists, Reason, and ALP all represent adequate choices. But I feel that both the Greens and ALP have acted contrary to their stated aims and goals lately, and knowing that the ALP (especially anti-Green members of the ALP Right) would dig dirt, the Greens clearly could have vetted their candidates better. I’ve suggested in my reviews that Reason have admirable qualities—they contributed to a number of positive reforms in the past term—and some less desirable corporate and libertarian leanings. And the Socialists, well, I’m in sympathy with much of their ideology but you will forgive me if I am hesitant because organised socialism in Australia has been a notoriously fractious joke for too long.

If you are passionate about assisted dying, then the Voluntary Euthanasia Party might be worth your preferences too; likewise, the Animal Justice Party if animal rights and veganism loom large in your decisionmaking. I have made no secret, however, that single-issue parties are of limited interest to me. Even when they address an issue I hold dear, I favour parties with fully rounded platforms; parliaments deal with quite diverse business.

What stands out to me more are the parties I dislike, and some of the sneaky and misleading names they use to try to hook in the gullible or inattentive voter. Health Australia pursue anti-vax and Big Pharma conspiracies. Transport Matters is an anti-Uber taxi lobby front. Sustainable Australia is anti-immigrant NIMBYism. The Australian Liberty Alliance is xenophobic and certainly does not offer liberty to Muslims or other people just a little too different for that white-bread comfort. The Democratic Labour Party is less labour and more very conservative Catholicism. The Liberal Democrats promote vacuous right-libertarian garbage.

At least some are more honest. The Shooters’ very name should clue you into the fact they would dismantle the bipartisan success story that is Australia’s gun control policies. The Australian Country Party is rather obviously a party of rural conservatives. Vote 1 Local Jobs and you get protectionism.

If I were to give out prizes:

Worst on field: Australian Liberty Alliance

Most deceptive name: Transport Matters

Mark Latham Award for Shit Politics: Aussie Battler Party, for changing their platform three times in a week! Not even Latho could contort that quickly.