May 26, 2025
UVXY: Bullish For The Month Of June
UVXY: Bullish For The Month Of June
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UVXY: Bullish For The Month Of June
UVXY: Bullish For The Month Of June
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Historically, Volatility & CBOE VIX Index Begin to Pick Up in August
After seven full trading sessions, this August has been rather sanguine when compared to historical average performance for the full month. Major indexes continue to trade at or near new all-time highs and the VIX index has been drifting lower rather quietly. Historically, the VIX has typically hit its annual low sometime during the month of July. So far in 2021, the VIX’s closing low was on July 2 at 15.07. This VIX seasonal low can be seen in the chart above just ahead of a seasonal climb to a peak that has generally arrived sometime during the month of October before declining again as the typical fourth quarter rally gains traction. VIX’s spike in March of 2020 is also visible in the above chart, pushing the late Q1 peak higher.
Digging deeper into VIX’s historical tendencies in August we present the following table comparing the change in VIX in August to the performance of the S&P 500 in August since 1990. S&P 500 has been higher 54.8% of the time over the last 31 years, but its average performance in August has been a loss of 0.6%. VIX, as one would likely expect has risen 61.3% of the time in August with an average increase of 9.4%. Shaded in the table are the Augusts where VIX (on a closing basis) was up over double digits. Every double-digit VIX gain in August was accompanied by a S&P 500 loss averaging 5.8%.
With the exception of 1995, every double-digit VIX decline in August was accompanied by a S&P 500 gain. Single-digit VIX moves were generally not that well correlated with August’s S&P 500 performance. This is also not that surprising as the VIX is attempting to estimate expected volatility over the next 30 days from the time of each tick of the index. (https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/faqs/)
Wild Times In Stocks
Currently momentum gauge sentiment and money flow indicators are negative with declining conditions and increasing negative momentum through last week. A decline to 2745 levels seems likely barring any further changes in macro-economic events. We wish to emphasize that long volatility is a tough position that is very likely to lose money. However, for the right purpose and at the right time - it can be a great hedging tool. As a matter of fact, at the Wheel of FORTUNE, we just executed such a trade. On July 31st, as a measure of protection ahead of the FOMC meeting/decision, we bought UVXY 08/02/2019 26.00 CALL for $0.60. Two hours later, we sold it for $2.40. Now, if you think we are selling you the 300% return - you're damn wrong! What we actually try to describe is that certain trades/strategies are only appropriate for certain purposes and specific times. To wit: We are very proud of our risk-adjusted returns but we never sell returns. Never! Instead, we are selling our methodology, our thinking, our risk/reward approach, that may slightly under-perform a 20% rallying stock market, but is certain to out-perform, meaningfully, a market that is using the elevator on its way down. By the way, anyone who kept this option for 48 hours (till Friday) could have sold it for a 1000% gain. Yes, had we haven't closed it quickly, due to its nature (playing defense, not offense!) this trade (after less than two days) was a 10x multi-bagger. And if you decided to roll this trade and buy the exact same option, but with a future (down the road) expiry date - you're sitting on a massive gain today. Again, for us this was about playing defense, not offense. As such, once the option fulfilled its part - we let it go. There are other-different hedges that we keep for longer periods. It all depends on the purpose of the stock trading. Two conditional signals that are very important to watch: Avoid/Minimize trading when the Negative score is higher than the Positive momentum score. Avoid/Minimize trading when the Negative score is above 70 on the gauge. Be sure to read this article: Profiting With Volatility Gains As The Fed Drains for additional details, signals and profitable trades in VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX Short-Term ETN (TVIX) to trade the signals for maximum profitability. Additional volatility instruments include the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX), the ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (SVXY), the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY), the iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXXB), the ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (VIXY), among others.
Profiting With Volatility Gains As The Fed Drains
Profiting With Volatility Gains As The Fed Drains
Setting the stage for current conditions
On Sept. 20, 2017, the Fed announced a balance sheet normalization program to reduce some of $4.5 trillion in holdings mainly acquired during quantitative easing programs from 2008 onward. The reduction of assets on the balance sheet is equivalent to a quantitative tightening (QT) policy that may accomplish many of the opposite results that three…
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Vix volatility index hits four-month high
Vix volatility index hits four-month high
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A widely-watched gauge of investor nervousness has climbed to its highest level since February’s market turmoil, underscoring the jitters ahead of an upcoming British vote on EU membership later this month.
The CBOE’s Vix index, which tracks the implied volatility of the S&P 500 stock index, has climbed above its long-term average of 20 for the first time in four months, after…
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Anya is live and ready to show you everything. Watch her strip, dance, and perform exclusive shows just for you. Interact in real-time and make your fantasies come true.
Free to watch • No registration required • HD streaming
Vix volatility index hits four-month high
Vix volatility index hits four-month high
[ad_1] ©EPA A widely-watched gauge of investor nervousness has climbed to its highest level since February’s market turmoil, underscoring the jitters ahead of an upcoming British vote on EU membership later this month. The CBOE’s Vix index, which tracks the implied volatility of the S&P 500 stock index, has climbed above its long-term average of 20 for the first time in four months, after…
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What are the VIX's showing us?
What are the VIX’s showing us?
These VIX volatility charts that I follow give me very important information. When these charts are at such low levels it tells me that the stock markets are extremely over bought and have become very complacent. They each have a particular purpose. They might look very similar at first so you have to look carefully what the differences are. I am looking at them combined to get an idea of what to…
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5/27...,been awhile...
I know I haven't posted in awhile...haven traded much either! We made our way up to them farm and encountered problems here. looks like it's going to be a loooong summer here. in the market ...took a nice little YOKU overnight put play..6/5 29s at 135 and sold at open at 2 today. bid on some aaple calls but didn't get filled. so I'm holding some FB June 80 calls...still got that UVXY call write that is ridiculous at 42c still...should be zippo....I have a gtc on it at 5c to close...and I believe that is all. probably forgetting something.its been a long hot, hard day!