#us10y

The US 10-Year Treasury Yield is trading near 4.54%, down slightly, as markets await today’s crucial US PPI report. Technical indicators show yields consolidating below key resistance at 4.58%, with support around 4.51%–4.40%. A soft PPI reading could trigger a bond rally, pushing yields lower toward support levels, while a stronger-than-expected print may revive rate-hike expectations and drive yields back toward 4.69%. Recent factors supporting higher yields include inflation remaining at 4.2%, strong US employment data, Goldman Sachs removing all 2026 rate-cut forecasts, and growing focus on the June 17 FOMC meeting. Geopolitical tensions involving Iran also remain a key volatility driver for Treasury markets. Read Full Analysis on: Capital Street FX - Forex and CFD Market Outlook

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Bund future: The new highs within the Bund future above the 160.00 level in combination with the solid rise in the daily momentum chart confirms the current strength within the uptrend. A test of the upper end of the rising trend channel in the daily generic contract should be expected, currently around 160.85. This is in line with our short-term price target, unchanged at 160.85. We recommend selling the rallies towards the upper end of this rising trend channel locking-in solid profits. We raised our stop-loss for long positions to 159.05.

Market expectations of the timing of Fed liftoff have moved forward in the wake of another robust employment report for January, to between June and September. But expectations about the pace of Fed rate hikes after liftoff still lag well behind FOMC projections.

We believe, bonds are ripe for a temporary selloff at some point this week as some Treasury yields touched new all-time low levels last week. Investors may have to wait until later in the week as today’s economic data is likely to show a decline in the pace of personal spending, while the ISM Manufacturing index may show a bit less positivity relative to last month.