#uncertainty quantification

Bayesian Active Exploration: A New Frontier in Artificial Intelligence

The field of artificial intelligence has seen tremendous growth and advancements in recent years, with various techniques and paradigms emerging to tackle complex problems in the field of machine learning, computer vision, and natural language processing. Two of these concepts that have attracted a lot of attention are active inference and Bayesian mechanics. Although both techniques have been researched separately, their synergy has the potential to revolutionize AI by creating more efficient, accurate, and effective systems.

Traditional machine learning algorithms rely on a passive approach, where the system receives data and updates its parameters without actively influencing the data collection process. However, this approach can have limitations, especially in complex and dynamic environments. Active interference, on the other hand, allows AI systems to take an active role in selecting the most informative data points or actions to collect more relevant information. In this way, active inference allows systems to adapt to changing environments, reducing the need for labeled data and improving the efficiency of learning and decision-making.

One of the first milestones in active inference was the development of the "query by committee" algorithm by Freund et al. in 1997. This algorithm used a committee of models to determine the most meaningful data points to capture, laying the foundation for future active learning techniques. Another important milestone was the introduction of "uncertainty sampling" by Lewis and Gale in 1994, which selected data points with the highest uncertainty or ambiguity to capture more information.

Bayesian mechanics, on the other hand, provides a probabilistic framework for reasoning and decision-making under uncertainty. By modeling complex systems using probability distributions, Bayesian mechanics enables AI systems to quantify uncertainty and ambiguity, thereby making more informed decisions when faced with incomplete or noisy data. Bayesian inference, the process of updating the prior distribution using new data, is a powerful tool for learning and decision-making.

One of the first milestones in Bayesian mechanics was the development of Bayes' theorem by Thomas Bayes in 1763. This theorem provided a mathematical framework for updating the probability of a hypothesis based on new evidence. Another important milestone was the introduction of Bayesian networks by Pearl in 1988, which provided a structured approach to modeling complex systems using probability distributions.

While active inference and Bayesian mechanics each have their strengths, combining them has the potential to create a new generation of AI systems that can actively collect informative data and update their probabilistic models to make more informed decisions. The combination of active inference and Bayesian mechanics has numerous applications in AI, including robotics, computer vision, and natural language processing. In robotics, for example, active inference can be used to actively explore the environment, collect more informative data, and improve navigation and decision-making. In computer vision, active inference can be used to actively select the most informative images or viewpoints, improving object recognition or scene understanding.

Timeline:

1763: Bayes' theorem

1988: Bayesian networks

1994: Uncertainty Sampling

1997: Query by Committee algorithm

2017: Deep Bayesian Active Learning

2019: Bayesian Active Exploration

2020: Active Bayesian Inference for Deep Learning

2020: Bayesian Active Learning for Computer Vision

The synergy of active inference and Bayesian mechanics is expected to play a crucial role in shaping the next generation of AI systems. Some possible future developments in this area include:

- Combining active inference and Bayesian mechanics with other AI techniques, such as reinforcement learning and transfer learning, to create more powerful and flexible AI systems.

- Applying the synergy of active inference and Bayesian mechanics to new areas, such as healthcare, finance, and education, to improve decision-making and outcomes.

- Developing new algorithms and techniques that integrate active inference and Bayesian mechanics, such as Bayesian active learning for deep learning and Bayesian active exploration for robotics.

Dr. Sanjeev Namjosh: The Hidden Math Behind All Living Systems - On Active Inference, the Free Energy Principle, and Bayesian Mechanics (Machine Learning Street Talk, October 2024)