Is peak oil really such a huge concern? Unconventional tech like fracking, tar sands and coal liquefaction only gets more profitable the higher prices rise. Considering that most of this stuff is "unburnable" if we want to maintain a relatively hospitable climate, surely it's a problem of too much rather than not enough?
âThe economists all think that if you show up at the cashierâs cage with enough currency, God will put more oil in ground." â Kenneth Deffeyes [x]
Thatâs partly right, yeah. When peak oil hits weâll still be sitting on massive amounts of fossil fuels. The issue is that the hydrocarbon fuels left (extracted by unconventional tech) are environmentally unsound and energetically useless.Â
It doesnât matter if prices rise because the EROEI (or Energy returned on energy invested) of those fuels make them virtually useless to society. Over time the EROEI of hydrocarbon supplies has dropped (e.g. 35:1 in 1999 but 18:1 in 2006 for global oil/gas) meaning less energy available for useful work in the economy. Like you said, itâs almost like thereâs too much fossil fuels - Canadian oil sands for example are equivalent to 170 billion barrels of crude oil, but after extraction, refinement, transport etc. their EROEI is only 3:1. Other substances like syncrude are estimated to have an EROEI of around 5:1. A lower EROEI means we have to burn even more just to gain the same amount of useful energy as previous âcleanerâ fuels like oil and natural gas. And as the EROEI gets closer to 1:1 as we reach the âbottom of the barrelâ the substance becomes useless to society. It doesnât matter how much investment is put into development of these resources - they wonât be much use to us, burning them is an environmental nightmare, and no matter how profitable they become theyâll still be too expensive for an economy accustomed to cheap, âsweetâ oil . Itâs also commonly thought that no matter how much âunconventionalâ oil sources we bring online then âprojected unconventional oil production cannot mitigate peaking of conventional oil alone.â
Peak oil is such a huge concern, however, because our global society relies overwhelmingly on cheap, easy to extract supplies of oil. We use it for agriculture, transportation, industry, military. Suitable substitutes like the ones you cited donât and wonât exist on the necessary size and scale to mitigate the peak. As the âHirsch Reportâ states, ââŠthe problem of the peaking of world conventional oil production is unlike any yet faced by modern industrial society.â
Thanks for the question. I probably havenât answered it fully and completely and thatâs just because I suck at answering asks :P. I have a ton of articles and papers on this subject if you want though and have other questions!. :)
