#ufcchicago

Women’s Bantamweight:

Valentina Shevchenko (beat Holly Holm) vs. Miesha Tate: Well, huh, how about that. Shevchenko looked excellent in counter-striking Holly Holm and winning a clear cut victory, which has only put the women’s bantamweight title picture in further chaos - Shevchenko just lost to Amanda Nunes in March, so that title fight isn’t on the horizon (although I think Shevchenko fares much better in a five round fight), which I guess means Julianna Pena gets the next title shot by default. I called for Tate to fight Cat Zingano in my last matchmaking post, but that’d pretty much screw Shevchenko over given the lack of top contenders at 135, forcing her to basically take a step back in her next fight when she’s coming off a career-best win. So let’s have Shevchenko fight Tate next in a theoretical #1 contender’s bout (unless Ronda Rousey suddenly comes back), and hopefully Tate can work her wrestling game and regain some momentum. Though, then again, Shevchenko was supposed to be a set-up fight for Holm, and here we are.

Holly Holm (lost to Valentina Shevchenko) vs. Jessica Eye/Bethe Correia (UFC 203) winner: Holly Holm needs a win. Well, in the long term, Holm needs even more than that - Shevchenko basically exposed her lack of spontaneity as a fighter, since once Shevchenko was able to time all of Holm’s combinations, there was really no ability to adjust - but in the short term, just any win will do to keep Holm from descending into irrelevancy. The best shot at that - save just giving her an opponent from the bottom of the division - is probably the winner of September’s bout between Eye and Correia - Correia is a striker that Holm should have every advantage over, and while Eye theoretically might be able to expose Holm’s suspect ground game, she hasn’t shown the fight IQ to be willing to do so.

Lightweight:

Edson Barboza (beat Gilbert Melendez) vs. Will Brooks: I called for Brooks to face the winner of Barboza/Melendez after his win two-plus weeks ago, and I don’t see a reason to change that - Barboza just lost to Tony Ferguson in December, so I don’t see an entry into the title picture just yet, and that fight would be an interesting test for both guys. Plus it’d be a way to fast-track Brooks into bigger fights, since he seems to be way better as a five-round fighter when he can break opponents down than he is in three rounds - hell, a Barboza/Brooks fight could theoretically headline a FS1 card, even.

Gilbert Melendez (lost to Edson Barboza) vs. Dustin Poirier/Michael Johnson (UFC Fight Night 94) loser: I’m a bit torn as to what to do with Melendez - he’s hung in there in every fight he’s been in, and each of his losses has been to the division’s elite, but he’s also now 1-4 in his UFC run, despite probably still being a top ten lightweight. I wouldn’t be opposed to throwing him a gimme just to give Gil a win, but instead I’ll still give him a ranked opponent with the loser of the Poirier/Johnson fight that headlines a FS1 show in mid-September. Whoever it is should still be a relevant concern, but also a clear step down from a lot of the top-five killers that Melendez has been facing in the UFC.

Michel Prazeres (beat J.C. Cottrell) vs. Tony Martin: This is Prazeres’s second straight UFC win, and he’s somehow now 4-2, but his grinding wrestling game still doesn’t seem all that high-level or fun to watch. For lack of an interesting option, let’s rebook him against his original opponent here, Tony Martin, who’s another big athlete with suspect cardio - hopefully one of them can get a quick finish.

J.C. Cottrell (lost to Michel Prazeres) vs. Jon Tuck: Cottrell didn’t look to great here, but given that he took the fight on about a week’s notice, it’s excusable - still, his aggressive, takedown and submission-hunting game doesn’t really look to translate to UFC on paper. So at his best he’ll probably be a mid to low-tier action fighter, so let’s put him against a guy who’s already in that position in Guam’s Tuck - basically see if he can take the crown of “fun low-level lightweight gatekeeper.”

Welterweight:

Kamaru Usman (beat Alexander Yakovlev) vs. Gunnar Nelson: Usman’s such a hard guy to matchmake for at the moment, despite looking like an elite prospect - a lot of people, including myself, were hoping Yakovlev would give Usman enough trouble on the ground that the Nigerian couldn’t just rely on takedowns, but nope - Usman continued to prove his wrestling game is awesome, which is both promising and frustrating since he’s probably going to need to develop his hands further to be a true title contender. I considered BJJ artist Sergio Moraes, who was originally supposed to face Usman at UFC 198, but I’ll say screw it and see if Usman can break his way into the top 15 against Gunnar Nelson, who might be the second-best submission artist in the division behind Demian Maia. Nelson’s a bit undersized, so there’s the distinct possibility Usman just blankets him for fifteen minutes as well, but even if that happens, Usman will basically just prove he’s past the level of needing to be tested.

Alex Oliveira (beat James Moontasri) vs. Patrick Cote: Oliveira sounds like he’d rather head back to lightweight, but he looked pretty decently sized here and I’d like to see him against Cote in what would be a pretty fun fight. A striking battle between the two would be pretty fun, and it’d be an interesting test to see exactly where Oliveira’s grappling is at - he got schooled by Donald Cerrone, but has looked good against guys completely overmatched on the ground (like Moontasri) - Cote would present a solid middle ground if Cowboy can get the fight there, and it’d be a good action bout.

Alexander Yakovlev (lost to Kamaru Usman) vs. Leon Edwards: Yakovlev just got overpowered by Usman’s wrestling game, but I like him as a veteran who can test most prospects pretty much anywhere. Let’s put him against England’s Leon Edwards, who held his own himself in a loss to Usman last December - Edwards is a plus athlete with some knockout power and a decent grappling game, but isn’t quite great enough in either area yet to fully overwhelm someone like Yakovlev in the same way Usman did.

James Moontasri (lost to Alex Oliveira) vs. Nathan Coy: Moontasri showed a lot of the same problems here as always - he basically hunts for the big strike, and if the opponent gets things to the ground, he’s completely lost. Let’s put him against Nathan Coy for a striker versus wrestler bout - Coy’s an aging, rugged grinder, so it’s basically a test to see if Moontasri can use his athleticism and striking ability to keep a crafty vet at bay, and basically show he can stick in the UFC.

Heavyweight:

Francis Ngannou (beat Bojan Mihajlovic) vs. Anthony Hamilton/Damian Grabowski (UFC 201) winner: Ngannou ran through Mihajlovic, as expected, but the Cameroonian still isn’t anywhere near fighting ranked opposition yet, as he’s still way more prospect than contender. In fact, the Mihajlovic win didn’t really even prove much - Mihajlovic looked awful in the brief moments he survived, and it didn’t really show us anything new about Ngannou’s prospects. So let’s give Ngannou a modest step up against a tough veteran, of which there are many in the heavyweight division to choose from - I’ll go with the winner of this coming weekend’s Hamilton/Grabowski bout, as either are skilled and durable enough to give Ngannou some trouble if they can overcome the massive athleticism gap that Ngannou brings to every opponent.

Luis Henrique (beat Dmitrii Smoliakov) vs. Adam Milstead: Henrique looked solid here, gassing out Smoliakov in short order and getting a one-sided win. But Henrique’s still only 22 and still looks ridiculously raw, so let’s not do anything too crazy with him - let’s put him against Milstead, another impressive new heavyweight, in a bit of a striker versus grappler bout.

Bojan Mihajlovic (lost to Francis Ngannou) vs. Curtis Blaydes: Mihajlovic is nothing more than roster fodder, and he looked bad enough here that I honestly wouldn’t be shocked to see UFC cut the Serbian after one fight. But instead, let’s use him as a bit of a gimme opponent for another promising prospect, in this case Blaydes, a massive wrestler who also lost to Ngannou in his UFC debut.

Dmitrii Smoliakov (lost to Luis Henrique) vs. Cyril Asker: Smoliakov looked pretty horrible here - he quickly knocked out all his opponents in Russia, and proved he basically has no gas tank past a few minutes. So let’s put him against France’s Cyril Asker, an undersized strike who also showed little in his UFC debut, and see who sinks and who swims.

Bantamweight:

Eddie Wineland (beat Frankie Saenz) vs. Raphael Assuncao: I called for Assuncao to face the winner of the Wineland/Saenz bout after Assuncao’s loss at UFC 200, and see no reason to change that after Wineland somewhat shockingly returned to form and looked excellent in beating Saenz. It’ll be a solid opportunity for Assuncao to regain some momentum after a long injury layoff and the subsequent loss to T.J. Dillashaw, and give Wineland a shot at one last push towards a title as he winds down his career.

Frankie Saenz (lost to Eddie Wineland) vs. Felipe Arantes: This was another fight I called for after International Fight Week that I see no reason to change - Saenz is still a top-fifteenish bantamweight, Arantes has looked good since moving down to 135, and it should be an interesting fight between two well-rounded guys.

Featherweight:

Darren Elkins (beat Godofredo Pepey) vs. Brian Ortega: Elkins is more than a gatekeeper, he’s like, I don’t know the gate itself. Or a wall. He’s basically this immovable object that keeps moving forward to take down and blanket opponents without being particularly dynamic or anything. So it’s just a matter of next prospect up, and the clear guy to me is Ortega, who’s shown some wild striking, and, more importantly, an impressive, aggressive submission game that would basically present a beefed-up version of a lot of the challenges Pepey gave Elkins.

Godofredo Pepey (lost to Darren Elkins) vs. Thiago Tavares: A bout I called for after International Fight Week, and it would be a fun one - Tavares is a well-rounded vet who has everything except durability, and Pepey basically goes balls to the wall and tries to finish every fight immediately. Plus we’d probably get some good grappling exchanges between two crafty submission artists.

Jason Knight (beat Jim Alers) vs. Alex White: Knight was a revelation in his win over Jim Alers, suddenly flashing an aggressive, defensively-lacking striking game like sort of a Hick Diaz. Let’s put him against another fun featherweight that’s starting to develop in Alex White, who’s looked like he’s turned the corner from “athlete” to “intelligent fighter” in his last fight.

Jim Alers (lost to Jason Knight) vs. Fernando Bruno: Alers is almost surely going to be cut after a disappointing UFC run, but if he somehow gets another fight, let’s put him against Bruno, who’s almost surely on the way out himself.

Women’s Strawweight:

Felice Herrig (beat Kailin Curran) vs. Randa Markos: Herrig looked great here after coming off a long layoff, but in the long run she’s probably still more gatekeeper than contender. Even though it’d be a rematch off of TUF 20, let’s put her against Markos, who still seems to be figuring things out as a prospect, in what would probably be a decent grappling-based fight.