#twofrontwar

The idea of a two-front war against China and Pakistan has frightening implications. However, that should not prevent India from preparing for it.

The chances of India having to fight a two-front war are smaller than small. While it is common for large countries to gang up against relatively weaker ones (such as Western nations bombing Vietnam, Libya, Afghanistan and Iraq), attacking a country of India’s size and strength is akin to inviting annihilation.

First up, Pakistan is mortally afraid of taking on India. This is because the economic and military balance has greatly skewed in India’s favour since the previous wars. Just 10 carefully targeted nuclear bombs will result in Pakistan disappearing from the map. Meanwhile, India will dust itself off after the loss of a few cities and walk away. As far as China is concerned, it knows India’s Agni-V ballistic missiles can turn the country’s spectacular economic story into history. A joint China-Pakistan attack on India will be both fratricidal and suicidal.

Also, one must learn lessons from the past. In the 1965 War when Ayub Khan appealed to big brother China to bail out Pakistan, which was being hammered by the Indian Army, Chinese strongman Mao Tse-Tung, fearing the escalation of the war into a global conflict, replied: “If there is a nuclear war, it is Peking and not Rawalpindi that will be the target.” Again, in the 1971 War, despite desperate pleas by dictator Yahya Khan and Henry Kissinger of the US, the Chinese did not move even a few trucks around.

However, war planning must take into account the worst case scenario. One cannot rule out a two-front war if China starts crumbling and its leadership seeks a way out to distract the population. Although the majority Hans are strongly nationalistic and solidly back the communist government, things could change if social problems escalate. For instance, by 2030 a quarter of men in their 30s will never have married because of the shortage of women. Such seemingly mundane issues could snowball into large crises.

Wars can also be sparked by accident. For instance, a border clash between India and China could spiral into a larger conflict, sucking in Pakistan.

Because wars are unpredictable, it is natural and entirely advisable to take out insurance cover. As the American author Will Durant wrote after analysing the causes of India’s invasion by Islamic and European hordes, “A nation must forever wage peace but keep its powder dry.”

STRENGTHEN THE AIR FORCE

A succession of air chiefs has declared that the Indian Air Force (IAF) cannot fight a two-front war without a minimum of 42 squadrons. It can be safely assumed that – like four star generals in other countries – the IAF brass also loves expensive new toys. They are simply scaring the politicians into greenlighting multi-billion dollar aircraft purchases.

However, when war breaks out, it is the air force that is the first to take both defensive measures as well as offensive action. A strong air force that makes Indian airspace impregnable is therefore a must.

The Peoples Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is the second largest air force in the world with more than 2,800 planes, including 1,900 combat aircraft. Of these, 120 are long-range H-6 bombers of which India has no equivalent, and according to the IAF's combat doctrine there are no plans to have dedicated bombers in the future. China is also reportedly working on a stealth bomber codenamed H-18.

The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) is the largest in the Islamic world with 750 aircraft of which 450 perform combat roles. Most of these are Chinese junk, but the 100 F-16s constitute a potent threat. While the Pakistani F-16s belong to an earlier era, some of these have been upgraded with modification kits by Turkish Aerospace Industries. As Turkey licence produces the F-16, in a crunch situation it could supply more F-16s to the PAF.

One cannot rule out the possibility of Islamic countries lending their aircraft to Pakistan, as happened in the 1971 War when Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the UAE and Turkey provided warplanes and Iran provided landing facilities to PAF aircraft.

The IAF currently has over 1700 aircraft of which 900 are combat aircraft, including the air dominance Su-30MKI. As India replaces older MiGs, the Su-30 fleet is likely to touch 300 aircraft – an impressive number for such an expensive and large aircraft.

The IAF also has nearly 90 upgraded MiG-29s, which are far superior to the F-16s, plus there are around 45 upgraded and highly capable Mirage 2000 fighter bombers. During the 1999 Kargil War, both the MiG-29 and Mirage-2000 had performed brilliantly. With the Russian jets providing top cover and keeping the PAF F-16s well away from the border, the Mirage-2000 was able to bomb Pakistan Army positions across the LoC with impunity.

However, with China and Pakistan having a combined total of 2350 combat aircraft versus the IAF’s 900 jets, there is a pressing need to restore some parity by inducting lighter and cheaper single engine aircraft. These include the homemade Tejas and the latest Viper version of the American F-16, provided they are made in India.

For a country that splurges on multi-billion loan write-offs, wasteful and shameful Commonwealth Games and numerous scams, a 45-squadron fleet should be loose change. Seemingly unimportant acts or omissions can have grave and unforeseen consequences. As the American statesman Benjamin Franklin famously wrote:

“For the want of a nail the shoe was lost,

For the want of a shoe the horse was lost,

For the want of a horse the rider was lost,

For the want of a rider the battle was lost,

For the want of a battle the kingdom was lost,

And all for the want of a horseshoe-nail.”

BUILD A MISSILE WALL

Since modern wars often begin with a missile or air attack aimed at suppression of enemy air defences and destruction of parked aircraft, the country should be protected by a ring of surface-to-air missile (SAM) sites. Currently India has one of the most antiquated air defence systems in the world, and relies on the 1960s vintage Russian SAMs. Although they might work against Pakistan, there is an urgent need for more modern SAMs that will shoot down advanced Chinese jets.

The good news is that India has decided to build a ballistic missile defence (BMD) system that will also take out enemy aircraft and cruise missiles. The core of this system will be the S-400 Triumf – a long-range air defence weapon that can literally take the war into the enemy’s airspace. For instance, an S-400 based at Halwara air base can bring down an F-16 flying over Lahore in just 34 seconds, giving the Pakistani pilot no time to say his prayers.

This S-400 air defence system can not only block enemy aircraft from providing support to their army during a conventional war, it can provide basic protection against Pakistani or Chinese missiles in case of a nuclear war. The system is, therefore, a force multiplier that can dramatically influence the outcome of a war. Five units have been ordered from Russia but more are needed in view of India’s vast borders.

However, no single missile is a game changer on its own. Missile defence works best when it is layered – multiple systems covering all low, medium and high altitudes. Anti-aircraft artillery (AAA) and air defence aircraft are also vital links of this network. India’s BMD system will also include a range of short and medium Indian and Israeli missiles.

Having even a rudimentary BMD system is better than having none at all because it creates doubt in the mind of the enemy whether his first strike will succeed. If the Pakistanis and Chinese cannot be certain that their pilots will get out alive from Indian airspace, or whether enough of their missiles will penetrate an Indian BMD system, it is more than half the battle won. As both Sun Tzu and Chanakya would agree, the best victory is that which is gained without fighting or the loss of men.

STRONGER AT SEA

For the Indian Navy to defend both coastlines successfully a fleet of 30 submarines should be the minimum, with perhaps a fleet of 50 (nuclear-powered attack, ballistic missile capable and diesel-powered attack subs) being an ideal number. Compared with India’s current fleet of 16 subs, this may seem like overkill. But compare India’s abysmal fleet strength with that of tiny and dirt poor North Korea, which has more than 70 submarines. (Now you know why American naval vessels maintain a safe distance from the Korean peninsula.)

Submarines being the true predators of the deep will allow India to wreak havoc on its adversaries during a war. Even a fleet of just 24 subs (the sanctioned strength) can target every task force in the Indian Ocean. During the 1999 Kargil War, it was a submarine – not an aircraft carrier – that was poised to deliver the first blow had India decided to escalate the conflict. Deployed off Karachi, INS Sindhurakshak had its torpedoes trained on the harbour installations. Had General Pevez Musharraf not despatched Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to the US on a mission of mercy, India would have made a bigger bonfire of the Pakistani city than last time round in 1971.

As well as subs, India needs to spend on other less glamorous but critical weapons platforms such as missile boats, frigates, stealth ships, minesweepers, land and ship attack missiles, torpedoes, shore-based radar, close-in warfare weapons, electronic warfare suites and maritime satellites.

PREPARE FOR ARMAGEDDON

In May 2017 India inked a deal with the US under the US Foreign Military Sales programme to buy equipment for use against chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear threats. The order includes 38,034 general purpose masks and 114,102 filters. This purchase offers a clue that India is preparing to fight in a biological/chemical/nuclear contaminated battlefield.

Considering that the Indian Army comprises 1.2 million men and women, with frontline troops forming at least a third of that force, a lot more containment equipment needs to be required. If an Indian armoured column advancing into Pakistan is attacked with tactical nuclear weapons, containment equipment will allow the thrust to continue until India such time when decides to escalate.

India was able to defeat Pakistan is four successive wars mainly because of superior troop morale. The military brass should ensure that soldiers are not condemned to suffer nuclear fallout or a chemical burst. Indian warriors are not worried about dying but no soldier likes to be treated like fodder.

INDIGENISE OR PERISH

A two-front war will involve rapid attrition. Lost hardware would need to be quickly replaced by the armaments factory for the armed forces to be able to fight a sustained war. Rapid indigenisation is therefore of the utmost importance.

In March 2012 army chief General V.K. Singh had dropped a bombshell that tanks were running out of ammunition, air defence was becoming obsolete and the infantry lacked critical weapons. The scariest part was the Indian Army had ammunition stocks only for a two-day war. Now compare this with the 1965 War when India had at least three weeks’ worth of ammunition – after fighting a 22 day war.

Five years later, India’s security continues to be at risk. The country’s war wastage reserves (WWR) include military material held in reserve in case of war. This includes bullets, rockets, missiles, weapons and fuel. According to the original norms, WWR should ideally last 40 days of intense fighting, allowing time for production to be ramped up and delivered to the military. In 1999 this was revised to 20 days of intense fighting.

However, according to a July 2017 report by the Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG), the stock of as many as 61 types of ammunition – out of a total of 152 types of ammunition considered critical by the Indian Army to fight a war – is available for just 10 days. Until this is fixed, forget a two-front war, India’s ability to fight on a single front looks doubtful.

The armed forces need to be seriously weaned away from the easy import route. This is critical as weapons prices have kept in step with India’s growing requirements. The Rafale fighter costs approximately $200 million and the fifth and sixth generation fighters will be an order of magnitude costlier. This is simply unsustainable in the long run. Moreover, foreign sellers will jack up costs if India seeks weapons in the middle of a war (when bargaining isn't possible) or even deny weapons if there are international sanctions.

In order to seed a vibrant defence manufacturing base, India must allow majority foreign stake in defence companies. This way India can fast-forward the process of becoming a hub of cutting edge weapons research and get out of the vicious cycle of low to mid-end technology transfers. The spate of weapons production partnerships entered into by private Indian players with defence MNCs due to the Make in India initiative will get a huge fillip if defence production policies are further liberalised.

Quoting Chanakya, “A person whose wealth is stored in the house of another person will not be able to use his wealth when ne needs it.” This is true of weapons as well – India cannot fight a major war if it relies on imports.

INK MILITARY PACT WITH JAPAN

It is said about the Chinese that they hate the West, despise India and fear Japan. After seven decades of isolation and self-imposed military spending limits, Japan is slowly emerging out of the American security umbrella. The country has lifted the 1 per cent of GDP limit on defence and has embarked upon a massive weapons building programme. In order to counter China and the North Korean nuclear threat, there is a very real possibility that Tokyo could go nuclear instead of relying on American guarantees.

Unlike the Chinese, Japan has more positive views about India. This is not merely a case of an enemy’s enemy being a friend; Japan and India also share religious and cultural similarities which make it easier for both countries to enter into a strategic partnership. An India-Japan military pact will be beneficial to Tokyo as well because China will then have to watch its back against India if it threatens Japan. With the dragon already feeling the heat from the US pivot to Asia, its worst nightmare will come true if India applies pressure from the west.

With the disciplined Japanese military – which has a 1000 year old martial tradition – deployed off the East China Sea, and India’s 90,000-strong Mountain Strike Corps threatening Tibet, it will be the best insurance against an attack for both India and Japan.

MAKE WAR DOCTRINE TRANSPARENT

India should lay it out that no matter who is in power, the country’s political leadership will not hesitate to wipe out Pakistan if it joins a Chinese attack on India. Since Beijing will not stick its neck out to defend Islamabad, the Pakistani brass will only attack India if they are in a suicidal frame of mind. While there are indeed fanatic zealots in the Pakistani military establishment, for the most part the Pakistani military elites lead a cushy life, sponging off the poor masses. Insulated from the poverty and misery of the country, the generals in Rawalpindi have zero incentive to be suicidal.

Considering the neighbourhood we live in, India should constantly be in a state of war readiness. This is the price of progress. In the meantime, New Delhi should have a plan ready to do a second and third Bangladesh by supporting independence movements in Balochistan and Sindh. This will also allow Khyber Pakthunkwa to rejoin Afghanistan. A truncated Pakistan alone will ensure permanent peace on India’s western border.