#trades2019

Mel Kiper had his moment during the recent NFL Draft. Even though the Dynosteve draft is about half a month away, it’s officially Mitch Kiper time. Before I delve into the trade, it’s been a while, so let’s recap a few key moments from the Dynosteve offseason thus far:

Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt bombed the Fenoms’s thesis of “just pick Chiefs,” though in a way I think all of us would rather not have happened.

Hammerfest owner Thatcher Thatcher has participated in all three preseason trades to date, continuing his trait of trading like a pork belly dealer in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange: fast, wild, and with most likely no idea what he’s doing (*more on this later).

Related note: Rob Gronkowski is retired. Michael Thomas is not. Now you might think Mitch Kiper will be doing a running tally of all the points each of these two players score over the upcoming 2019 season. If you think that...

YOU ARE WRONG!!!

As of this sentence in this paragraph, Mitch Kiper is establishing his new 2019 season guidelines. It’s a new year, which means fresh starts for everyone. The previous listicle was Mitch Kiper’s way of saying goodbye to last season. From here on out, Thatcher is a declared “Friend of Kiper” and will not be subject to undue targeting. Thatcher, I extend my digital hand in peace to you--unless of course you do something ridiculously stupid.

Now, for the first truly big move of 2019...

The Mega Mega Mega Mega Trade

In this trade, we saw 4 teams, an arguable #1 overall WR, and several young promising dynasty players trade hands. I won’t list them all here--attaching the image in tumblr made it appear WAY too big--but you can check the Dynosteve Facebook page for details if you want a reference while you check out my analysis.

First off, before I get into my gut reactions for each team’s move, here are the the team-by-team rankings according to my new and (maybe?) improved KiperScores. This year’s scores, in an effort to be more like a power ranking and less of a predictive tool, uses a heavier dose of positional weighting to create some starter and bench metrics that I don’t really care to explain, along with current FPG instead of 3-year averages (which in this case refers back to 2018 only--which I acknowledge the shortcomings of, but a man can only put so much time into a hobby, right? ... he said to the wrong people).

Here’s what it looked like before the trade:

And after...

Quick Takeaways -- Based on the fuzzy numbers:

- The Hellslinkies acquisition of Davante Adams helped them close the gap on goose, though not enough to overtake him. This was a clear “win now” move, which is reflected in their Starter sub score rising considerably (better than ZIMBAB and top of the league) at the expense of their Bench, which had formerly been the strongest in the league, on par with several starting rosters towards the bottom of the standings.

- Hammerfest weakened themselves according to these metrics, but I have something to say about that later*.

- The Longships achieved something no one thought was possible: a decent trade. They are the only team to raise their power ranking.

- According to this analyst, the Stockholm Syndrome did nothing to help their cause. They became slightly weaker, and their starter score is actually lower than that of Helsinki’s bench.

Mitch Kiper’s illogical, totally opinionated analysis:

- The only potential downside for Helsinki is that they are weaker in the FLEX, and one injury or underperforming player can severely hinder their championship chase. Then again, we can say that about most top teams.

- 2Hammerfest 2Furious took a hit to their starting roster and starting FPG, but holy shit did they make an improvement to their bench. Chubb was looking like a stud to build off of, and even with Kareem Hunt potentially stepping in to split the load later in the season, there’s no guarantee Hunt will thrive after such a long break or under the Brown’s system. We’ve seen that Chubb can deliver, and should be able to do even better with the space that OBJ and “Bless Em” Landry will provide. I like this move a lot for the Hammerfest. While they lose one dominant WR, they pick up some youth and depth that will inoculate them against injuries or unexpected underperformance.

- I love to tout the Syndrome. Mitch Kiper has a great relationship with fellow Midwest Living subscriber Coach Waring. However, this move baffles him. When you factor in positional weighting, Marlon Mack is arguably a more valuable piece than Brandin Cooks even before factoring in Keke Coutee. Add that to what was already a perilously thin RB situation, and Kiper simply can’t endorse this move--especially since the “Two Strong WR” strategy has yet to pan out even remotely (see Nickelsnatchers, Gakusei Kai).

- Finally, while this is a seemingly objective win for the Ludders, especially for the current season, Kiper’s only gripe is that it continues a pattern of Laeso 2-for-1 deals where Owner McCormick gives up multiple pieces for one higher quality, but now higher stakes piece.

Of course in isolation, while the trend is troubling, this move is a clear win. He has multiple picks this year, and should be able to add an instant RB2 with Josh Jacobs, but personally I’d rather see Laeso use his assets to acquire multiple opportunities at young depth instead of a TD-dependent RB who may be stuck in a committee this year, and carries a high chance of being irrelevant by the time the Longships’ window finally arrives.

That said, this is the type of trade that helps you avoid the Toilet Bowl. The intrinsic value of that alone makes this trade a win, despite the minor long-term gripes.

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