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I substitute the question "What do I think about this?" With "How do I feel about this?".
"Nothing beats books for understand the world".
Deforestation Professionale
We tackle the problems from our field of experience. Doctor wants to make a surgery, socialists wants to critic, chamanes want to use the energies. Mindset is like a knife swiss, each blade is a mental model, generally we only have one or two blades based in our life experience and our professional expertise. The thing here is to have more mental models in out knowledge training to balance our thinking. Because nobody has the true.
The planning fallacy.
As a humans we are very bad planning. Our deadlines are falses generally. We are natural wishful thinkers.
We overestimate our skills and underestimate external circumstances, like accidents, pandemics, etc. However making step by step planning do not get improve the planning fallacy. Why? Because we lost vision. We are so focus in our project that we don't see the possible external problems that can emerge.
What can we do?
Focus also in external factors, We can check similar projects and assume that we are going to face the same problems with the same consequences. If I'm going to invest in real state I have to be prepared to manage the same problems that similar projects suffered in the past.

Anya is live and ready to show you everything. Watch her strip, dance, and perform exclusive shows just for you. Interact in real-time and make your fantasies come true.
Free to watch • No registration required • HD streaming
"If you think too much you cut off your mind from the wisdom of your feelings".
SMART THEORY IS DIFFICULT TO TRANSFER TO REALITY.
Thas why good ideas do no have good value. For example, in the moment that you turn a good business idea into reality usually the idea doesn't work. And that's why "testing" is so important, test your ideas, your concepts.
Doers have more value because master the "transfer knowledge" theory to practice.
BLACK SWAN EVENT
A Black Swan is unexpected even that has a brutal effect in your life, company, country. Black Swan event could be positive or negative. The point is take advantage of it. How? Create a scalable product. Turn your idea into a concept and then into a product.
Now you're ready to wait your black swan. Become artist, create a startup, invest and create a sacalable product.
If you're employee forget it.