#terran 1

Terran 1 Launch - World’s First 3D Printed Rocket

All I could think as I watched this little blue streak go overhead was, "You crazy sons of bitches, you did it."

I honestly thought it was going to either explode or do that tragic lift-off-a-few-meters-but-then-come-crashing-back-down-on-its-ass thing. No matter that it didn't quite make orbit, the fact that they got it in the air at all is staggering.

And, as I said on the Spaceflight Now Live Chat (the best live chat on YouTube or perhaps anywhere), perhaps the real achieving orbit is the friends we made along the way.

If you haven't heard about the Terran 1 yet, it's a two-stage orbital class launcher made primarily with 3D printing, made by Relativity. The first of its kind and it launched today (03:25 UTC), very exciting new step for rocket manufacturing.

While the Terran 1 did successfully launch during it's first stage it did not manage to reach orbit during it's second stage. Overall an amazing new advancement, the data from this test launch will contribute to a future rocket, the Terran R.

I'll be keeping up with Relativity Space and their future launches, very exciting stuff.

So I've been observing the company of Relativity Space for a good while now. What originally got me in I think were the plumes + some cool numbers and I've stayed in since then. Main line of interest in space for new people is SpaceX, but if you are naturally a contrarian or feel some degree of dislike towards Musk, it can push elsewhere. There's a generic mindset in the community where people have a desire to feel neurodiverse so they obsess over one particular company or vehicle in space. I've seen it with Firefly, ABL, Rocket Lab, Astra, Blue Origin, ULA and Relativity among others (personally I want to be deep on Varda, but can't believe it over the competition (Delian don't let me down)). Of course launch is the most common because of their visibility + the interesting activity being condensed over a couple minutes instead of months/years*. I wouldn't count Virgin Galactic as those tend to be more stock types with a financial attachment rather than a social one.

*Capstone I know you think you're cool doing half a million flips in space and saving it, but I mean Astra once did a powerslide so you're never gunna compare.

Anyways, yes Relativity. See this would never work in any other format. Just me ranting. I couldn't make a youtube video or any reasonable discussion on a social media platform. But for you nutters on tumblr who will never read this because it's likely adjacent to your interest areas, it's just right. Maybe livestreaming, but I'm not quick witted enough for that.

So uh how do I feel about the company. It's hard to say because I'm so close and feel so removed. Is 3d printing worth it? Shit maybe idk. The whole mass increase + the massive effort it's taken to get them working in the first place just makes it seems like it was not worth the money. ABL was founded a year after Relativity and achieved launch before Relativity at a much more efficient capital burn. As is now with >1000 employees, Relativity is burning hundreds of mil and isn't making any significant revenue right now. They will need to do another capital raise in like the next year or 2. The thing I come back to is the ability to move onto brighter pastures with the printer. Terran R is what is needed to make the company work and not burn money like it was going out of style. So anything to make the move to Terran R easier is justified.

I believed large scale work on Aeon R began in ~2020, maybe a bit into 2019. So a clean sheet 1.1 MN methane GG engine being on test stand in 3 years is pretty good, although TQ-12 context*. Prometheus began in 2015 and got an engine on stand in 2022. And that's the first engine, we'll probably see >10 Aeon R doing things by years end compared to like 2 or 3 Prometheus. That was enabled by Terran 1 heritage. Will the same principle go for the rest of Terran R. The big question is inevitably the structures because that's where Relativity is doing their new thing. So how long till we see large actual real Terran R Stargate hardware. They wanted to do like 1 engine/week by June 2023. That would be like 30 engines by years end. If they manage that, then maybe a shot. Maybe Gustavo man was on the money.

*Tianque 12 is a 660kN methane GG engine that started in August 2017 and had an engine on test stand in November 2019.

I always feel like I'm moving the goal posts. 'The current product is alright, but this next one coming soon tm will be the real deal' and it's always the next one. Which I suppose is the point of iteration right, but I can't help but feel uncomfortable. Keep in mind I don't actually make these points to people, I mostly think through these arguments with myself and see where I end up. But if you can do tank structure prints on Stargate 4 sooner rather than later, first half this year, it's good. Tim Ellis has hinted that there will be reveals after the first launch. It's always weird, cuz they want like a dozen Stargate 4.0s by years end, each of which is capable of printing 4 Terran R's in a year. But then we look at hardware produced and it's feels nowhere near that.

And then we look at Rocket Lab who have the nice good mass margins with composite and the low pressure ORSC engines which will presumably be very reusable. Granted the last time a company tried the tack of we'll run ORSC methane engine but at lower pressures so we have plenty of margin on the reusable engine it didn't work out too well for them. But talent wise the industry is in a much better spot. If Rocket Lab are producing 1/2 mass tanks relative to Relativity, while not risking the entire company because they don't have crazy cash burn because of existing revenue because good company. Wouldn't that make Neutron just better/more attractive on technical level, and production rate doesn't really matter for reusable rockets. So why Oneweb go with Terran? Bigger? If Terran R isn't on pad before Neutron then Relativity have failed. Everything is set up for this dev program. Anyone with a rocket on pad right now is happy because launch is selling like hot cakes.

How will it do in this market? Maybe it's big enough. I feel like the commercial market projections are a meme and that there's going to be a bunch of satellite company failures and scalebacks that puts the launch back in place. Is Relativity able to survive the crunch. What is the schedule? Sadly it's the most irrational hater wins normally, but that indicates bankruptcy does it not. Because Relativity will not have money for like 2027.

November 2024 is the window for the Mars mission. Can they do it? No. But I wants to believe mister. But the irrationals shall have their domain. But what if... no. :(

Give me the organic prints Relativity and show me the journey was worthwhile. A dome with poor finish and features that are only necessary cuz it's being printed is not that. I want to see bones.