#tech speculation

Speculation is driven by hype. People get excited over something, tell their friends, their friends tell their friends and so on until everyone is waiting for The Next Big Thing. But as much as speculation can turn into expectation, that does not make it a reality.

Take quantum computing, for instance. By definition, a quantum computer uses quantum mechanics to perform its tasks. Which is rather circular. To make it simpler to understand, a ‘classical’ computer – the kind that actually exists today – operates via deterministic rules. If/then. Command/result. Input/output. Yes/no. These rules are linear and follow a logic chain based on set parameters. Quantum mechanics, on the other hand, are less bound by these constraints, able to function in non-linear ways. Taking the example of if/then and yes/no that are so definite with classical computing, in quantum computing the answer to both is ‘maybe’. Now, this is an extremely basic illustration of the idea; the math involved here is quite complex and I’m admittedly out of practice in using it.

The hype surrounding quantum computing is that it would increase output in less time, with the added benefit of being exponentially more powerful than current linear computation. And that it could be applied to things like cybersecurity, data analytics, simulations and even AI. Which all sound great, except for one thing: it’s all theoretical.

Proof-of-concept examples do exist for quantum computing. Quantum physics as a field of study goes back to the early 20th century and was an integral factor of such things as the Manhattan Project. Very plainly, it is the science of extremely small things. In quantum mechanics, that extremely small thing is light, which behaves as both particle and wave. Light’s yes/no parameters are ‘both’. Taking that non-linear behavior into the field of computers is fascinating, don’t get me wrong. But it is currently limited by both our understanding of it as a concept and our ability to reproduce its effects in a way that isn’t prohibitively resource rich.

Theory counts for nothing if it cannot be made feasible. We already have generative-AI and LLM’s that consume vast amounts of energy and physical materials. These are finite resources on our planet – the only one we have, I might add – and what will happen when they run out? Does the conjecture of profit outweigh the needs of real human beings who could be using those resources to live? Not to mention AI’s fundamental structure has other ethical issues. LLM’s, for instance, ‘learn’ by data scraping, often without regard to copyright or proprietary consent. And we won’t get started on accuracy, although that does tie in with the nature of quantum computing’s utility. When does the margin for error become more than it’s worth?

In short, I think quantum computing will exist at some point in a usable fashion. But it won’t be in my lifetime, or perhaps even the lifetime of my child. And as such, is nothing more than mere speculation that isn’t worth the hype surrounding it. In my opinion, we have enough real, tangible problems to focus on right now.