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''We are a shortsighted species. We think only one step ahead in terms of consequences, and then we typically only limit it to our own consequences. We need to engage in second-order thinking and visualize all the dominos that could be falling. Without this, it can’t be said that you are making a well-informed decision.''
-Peter Hollins, Mental Models
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''...second-order thinking allows you to think clearly—at least more clearly than your competition. Most of the time, that matters. Nobody ever rises above average through making the obvious choices or accepting the most convenient, simplest answers. Being able to project and foresee happenings on a deeper, futuristic level is a hallmark of successful people and almost always turns out to be worth the extra effort.''
-Peter Hollins, Mental Models
Investment Quote of the Day
Investment Quote of the Day
“First-level thinking is simplistic and superficial, and just about everyone can do it (a bad sign for anything involving an attempt at superiority). All the first level thinker needs is an opinion about the future, as in “The outlook for the company is favorable, meaning the stock will go up.
The second-level thinker takes many things into account: What is the range of likely future outcomes?…
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