Prospect Preview: The 2016 NBA Draft
Written byĀ Timothy Lewis and Chris Walker
Alright folks, March is around the corner, and you know what that means! It is officially time to start evaluating college basketball talent headed for the 2016 NBA draft. While NBA scouts and general managers have been vetting prospects since high school, it is nonetheless valuable to have a casual breakdown for the fan that also has a career.
This year offers an interesting and divisive crop of players, fitting of a wacky season that has seen Duke fall out the top 25 for the first time in nearly a decade, and the distinct possibility of the nations #1 college player not reaching the NCAA tournament. Even Kentucky stinks! Here we will detail who I (Obi-G) believe to be the top five prospects in the draft this year, accompanied by Chris Walkerās under-the-radar sleepers, along with the candidate he would have liked to see most in the NCAA. Here we go!
Ben Simmons, LSU (19 YO, 6ā10, Point-Forward) (Freshman)
Player Comparison: LeBron James, Magic Johnson, Blake Griffin
Current Stats: 19.4 PPG, 12.6 RPG, 5 APG, 1.9 STL/PG, 1.0 BLK/PG, 3.1 TOs
No surprise here, with the Australian-born Simmons going first overall. It is hard to imagine a comparison to two of the top ten greatest players of all time being drafted anywhere outside of the first pick. His strengths include his 6ā10ā, 240 lb. frame, accompanied by a 7ā0ā wingspan. Much like his player comparisons, he is the size of a big man with the body proportion, coordination, speed, and agility of a guard. He is a high-grade athlete in terms of explosiveness, although likely not in the league of King James. His ball handling and court vision are top notch, allowing him to operate in transition, from the perimeter, or in the post. His rebounding makes him a one-man fast break. Simmons will be a dynamic two-way NBA player. Expect an instant contributor and a nightly triple-double threat.
With the above description, it is hard to imagine any weaknesses. However, they do exist. Some have criticized the college freshman for lacking mamba blood, or the ākiller instinctā needed to take over and close out games. His jump shot has also been rightfully questioned, as his midrange and 3-point shooting both display less than desirable consistency. Compounding on this flaw is his lack of willingness to take jumpers, something he ditches in favor of driving to the basket, even when a defender gives him room to shoot cleanly. There are some that debate if this is because of the ease of which he gets to the basket. Such a weakness only reinforces the comparison to Magic and LeBron, both of whom came into the league shooting-deficient.
Brandon Ingram, Duke (18 YO, 6ā9ā, SG/SF) (Freshman)
Player Comparison: Kevin Durant
Current Stats: 16.9 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.2 STL/PG, 1.6 BLK/PG, 1.7 TOs
Some will call him number 1A, and others will say he is the one to dispute Simmonsā right to the number one overall pick. Number two overall seems most likely. It is hard not to be wowed by the strengths already being displayed by the 18 year old. Taking full advantage of his 7ā3ā wingspan, Ingram averages 1.3 steals along with 1.6 blocks per game, while also shooting over opponents with relative ease. He is able to score from all three levels (3-point range, midrange, at the rim), oozing potential as a go-to scoring option. When you have a young, dynamic kid like Ingram available with the number two pick, cleanly spliced from Kevin Durantās genetic material, you take him with a smile.
While minimal, Ingram does possess a couple weaknesses. Akin to Durant, his body weight and strength have been questioned, weighing only 190 lbs. While it hasnāt proven to affect his rebounding at the collegiate level, averaging six and a half per game, he does project to struggle with the physicality present in the NBA. His incredible length can compensate in some regards, but he often has to contort his body awkwardly when clashing with more substantial bodies in the paint. Another less-pronounced and very fixable weakness lies in his ball handling. He isnāt deficient, but his handle must become tighter if he is to dominate offensively in the NBA.
Jaylen Brown, Cal, (19 YO, 6ā7ā, SG/SF) (Freshman)
Player Comparison: Jimmy Butler
Current Stats: 15.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.9 APG, 0.7 STL/PG, 0.6 BLK/PG, 3.1 TOs
Jaylen Brown is a clear-cut top prospect. He has canāt miss strengths that will almost certainly convert to the NBA. Being the most athletic wing prospect in the draft is certain to draw scoutās attention. The guy can jump out of the gym. His speed and vertical will be elite, even amongst the top athletes at the next level. Literally a poster waiting to happen. His slashing skills are already excellent, where his agility, strength, and finishing ability are put on display. Shooting 7 free throws per game shows his natural knack for drawing contact. His ideal fit is with a team that runs in transition and utilizes an up-tempo style of play. While his defensive statistics do not match his potential, he appears to have the athleticism and tenacity to develop into a strong NBA defender.
The weaknesses are just as pronounced as the strengths for Brown at the moment. His shooting, much like his player comparison, Jimmy Butler early in his career, leaves much to be desired. His form isnāt bad, and he shoots confidently - The ball just isnāt going in the basket, shooting 26.5% from three on nearly three attempts per game, and converting on only 65% of his foul shots. For a guy that is going to make a living at the charity stripe, he needs to improve in that area. Another topic of criticism is his IQ with the ball in his hands, as he averages more turnovers (3.1) than assists (1.9). It appears that he commits to either driving or passing upon making his first move, as opposed to playing with pace and taking what the defense gives him.
Kris Dunn, Providence, (22 YO, 6ā4, PG) (Junior)
Player Comparison: Dwayne Wade, John Wall, Emmanuel Mudiay
Current Stats: 17 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 6.7 APG, 3.2 STL/PG, 0.8 BLK/PG
Ladies and Gentlemen, Kris Dunn is a beast. Widely acclaimed as the best point guard in the draft, Dunn is ready for the NBA. His Strengths are plentiful on both ends of the floor. An elite, hounding defender, Kris Dunn finds himself second in all of college basketball in steals per game. This is attributed to quick feet, active hands, and keen awareness allowing him to jump into passing lanes. His ability to disrupt the opposing team's offense leads to transition points, an area of the game where Dunn is quite comfortable. His cerebral feel for the game extends itself to the offensive end, where he finds himself 9th in assists per game. The physical profile of Dunn is perhaps his greatest strength, where his quickness, bounce, and wingspan all fall in line with desireable NBA traits. A natural slasher, the Providence product plays with pace, and is an excellent facilitator out of the pick and roll. His jump shot consistency has improved with each year, now shooting 37.5% from three on 3.5 attempts per game.
If only reading the above, one would assume Dunn is a bonafide #1 pick. I mean, a D-Wade comparison? Seriously? Yet, the weaknesses are present. Suffering back-to-back shoulder injuries erased the first two years of his college career. In an age where youth is as essential as talent in the draft, this could be cause for concern, with some belief that he has less room for development in the NBA, entering as a grown-ass man of 22 years old. Shooting is something of a concern. His midrange attack is solid and keeps the defense honest, but his shooting from the (closer) college 3 point line is uninspiring. This is a subject, outside of athleticism, where he matches with his three player comparisons. Worries also exist over his turnovers, which are quite high for a primary facilitator. His court vision, while admirable, is sometimes overly ambitious, leading him to try to squeeze passes into small windows. There are some that question his handle being loose, although it seems to be a less pronounced concern.
Buddy Hield, Oklahoma, (22 YO, 6ā4ā, SG) (Senior)
Player Comparison: C.J. McCollum, James Harden, J.J. Reddick
Current Stats: 25.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.4 STL/PG, 0.5 BLk/PG, 2.8 TOs
The NCAA darling, Buddy Hield. Every year a guy shoots up draft boards. Earlier this season before his injury, it was Denzel Valentine. Now, it is undoubtedly Buddy Hield that has caught our imagination and our hearts. One need look no further than his statistics to know his strengths. He can score. A lot. Second in points per game in the NCAA has caught the attention of basketball pundits everywhere. His prolific shooting from three combined with his age give some flashes of JJ Reddick before he entered the NBA. While JJ has become a fine NBA player, Hield may have something more to offer. While he is finding net on a stunning 51% of his threes, taking just over eight per game, his offense seems more multifaceted than just perimeter scoring. His release is as fast as any prospect in college and the outcome has been wetter than the morning grass. He is also crafty enough with the ball to slither all the way to the hoop, dodging defenders and shot blockers along the way. In some instances the creativity of his drives are reminiscent of James Harden. He is a lock to hold value as a scorer at the next level. Ā Ā
We might not like to admit it, but all of our Buddyās have weaknesses. Hield is similar to Kris Dunn in that he is an older prospect and has the accompanying worry of how much more he will develop as a player. Additionally, some question his very average size (6ā4) and athleticism at the shooting guard position. His quickness is a plus, but his straight line speed and lift are nothing to swoon over. Against NBA competition, his inventiveness will play a big part in whether he can overcome the jump in length and athleticism. Despite his gaudy scoring numbers, Buddy Hield is not producing much in the way of assists, averaging 0.4 more turnovers per game. His shot selection has been questioned, as his confidence can encourage him to embrace difficult looks at inopportune times. While the results have still been good, the situation itself is potentially problematic. His defensive chops have also been questioned, both in effort applied and physical tools available. While Hield has a high ceiling as an offensive weapon, he seems limited in many other regards.
Kay Felder, Oakland (20 YO, 5ā9ā, PG) (Junior)
Player Comparison: Isaiah Thomas, Kemba Walker
Current Stats: 24.7 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 9.1 APG, 2 STL/PG, 0.2 BLk/PG, 3.5 TOs
The Detroit native is leading the country in assists and is third in the country in scoring, averaging 24.7 points and 8.8 assists a game, all while standing at 5ā 9ā. Through his college career, he has shown improvement, with this season being his crescendo at the college level. He has impressed against big name teams, like his 37 point game in an overtime loss to Michigan State, then the #1 team in the country. Felder is now at a point where staying will just poke more holes in his game and is projected to go in the second round. With the success of Isaiah Thomas, he will probably get a real look from teams, because thereās a forerunner still breaking down the myth that shorter guys canāt hang in the league.
Wayne Selden Jr., Kansas (21 YO, 6ā5ā, SG) (Junior)
Player Comparison: Paul Pierce, Dwayne Wade
Current Stats: 14.4 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 2.6 APG, 0.9 STL/PG, 0.3 BLk/PG, 1.9 TOs
Selden, a junior, was considered a lottery pick when he first arrived in Lawrence, Kansas. That, however, was not in the cards, as he needed time to adjust to the speed of the college game. For his first two years, he averaged close to 9 points, hitting 41% of his shots and 35% of his threes. Then, this year happened--Selden is currently averaging over 14 points, making over 50% of his shots and 46% of his 3s. Some of this is positional, as Coach Bill Self has admitted, since the guard had to become a ball-handler since playing with the likes of Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre. He is currently projected as a late-first round, early second round pick, but there might be hope. He still has a lot of basketball to play against some top competition in the Big 12.
Kyle Wiltjer, Gonzaga (23 YO, 6ā10ā, SG) (Red Shirt Senior)
Player Comparison: Ryan Anderson, Mirza TeletoviÄ
Current Stats: 21.8 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.5 APG, 0.4 STL/PG, 0.8 BLk/PG, 2.3 TOs
Wiltjer is either at the bottom of most mock drafts, or not on them at all. Maybe it has to do with the fact heāll be closer to 24 when the draft comes around this June. Regardless, the former Kentucky Wildcat & McDonaldās All-American is still a 6ā 10ā combo/stretch forward in a time where that is exactly what NBA teams are looking for. Wiltjer is averaging 22 points, while hitting 44% of his 3s this year. Although Wiltjerās not a big time rebounder for his size, with two big body rebounding options in Przemek Karnowski and Domantas Sabonis sharing the front court with him, he has still had 5 double-doubles (points and rebounds) this year.
AJ Hammons, Purdue (23 YO, 7ā0ā, C) (Senior)
Player Comparison: Roy Hibbert, Marc Gasol
Current Stats: 14.7 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 1 APG, 0.3 STL/PG, 2.7 BLk/PG, 2 TOs
Hereās the thing--if youāre a seven foot, 278lb center in a draft year with not too many of those, youāve got a chance. The Carmel, Indiana native fits the above profile and definitely has the type of game many NBA teams could use-- defense at the center position. Hammons is currently averaging 2.7 blocks and 8 rebounds a game, which translates to rim protection, a highly coveted NBA skill. There are many big men who youād be surprised are still in the league solely for this skill, like Timofey Mozgov, so it would be no surprise if he made it onto an NBA roster.
Dragan Bender, Maccabi Tel Aviv (18 YO, 7ā1ā, C/PF)
Player Comparison: Anthony Davis, Kristaps Porzingis
Current Stats: 5.3 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 0.8 APG, 0.6 STL/PG, 0.7 BLk/PG, 0.7 TOs
A basic description of the Croatian big man is that heās very similar to Knicks Latvian big man, Kristaps Porzingis. Theyāre both 7-foot guys, with Bender at 7ā 1ā, capable of great ball handling and a capable 3-point shooter. The thing about Bender is that he has a bigger profile; not many people were writing about Kristaps in the November before the draft--in Benderās case, he was profiled early by Sports Illustrated--in 2014. The 18 year-old has low averages, but on 12 minutes per a game. Ā He has shown promise with proper time, which convinced Maccabi, historically Israelās top team, to give him a seven year contract, with an expensive release clause before 2019. If he was in an American university, like his older brother Ivan, teams wouldn't have to guess about when heād see time on American soil. In that case, he would have stronger chance at the #1 pick, rather than being projected to go anywhere from 3rd to 14th. Imagine this kid playing for Maryland or UNC-- A scary proposition come tournament time.