Maximizing the benefits of Russiaâs surprising exodus.
Russia is an anomaly when it comes to migration. The typical pattern for migrants is to leave their home country in search of a wealthier landing spot to move up the prosperity ladder. The opposite has occurred in Russia since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine: the country has lost a stream of its best and brightest, who fled to poorer states in Central Asia and the Caucasus. In yet another anomalous twist, Russia of late has been pushing out Central Asian labor migrants that it badly needs. The deportation of Tajiks picked up pace in the aftermath of the March concert hall terrorist attack. The forced departure of guest workers, along with the exodus of hundreds of thousands of Russians since 2022, hits Russia where it hurts most: the tight labor market. Russia has too few workers. While Central Asian muscle builds houses, many Russian emigrants were IT workers or entrepreneurs that powered Russiaâs knowledge economy. It is the skill set of these departed Russians, and where they moved, that makes this exit so shocking from an international perspective. According to a 2020 IMF report, most migrants leave a developing or emerging economy for a better life in an advanced one. Refugees generally do not have jobs and flee conflict or war at home to find haven in a (usually) poor neighbor. In contrast, it is rare to see highly skilled workers leave en masse from advanced to less developed economies. This is one reason why the self-designation of relokanty, or relocated people, as the latest wave of Russian emigres are called, is apt. They do not fit the classic definition of migrant or refugee. Many in the first wave in February-June 2022 objected to the Ukraine War and expected to return soon, leaving pets behind. The second wave, after the partial mobilization in September 2022, was comprised mostly of men who did not want to fight in Ukraine. The first port of entry was mainly Georgia and Kazakhstan, which share a border with Russia and lack visa or passport requirements. Compared to the diverse background of 1990s Russian migrants, both waves of relokanty were comprised of highly educated urban youth, mostly male. To paraphrase sociologist Cynthia Buckley, bad politics today makes for bad demographics tomorrow. Both the battlefield loss of young men and their flight from Russia has created a ticking demographic time bomb.  Â
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