#rulesmatter

New York Governor is parroting Democrats across the nation who claim ICE should be abolished because it's breaking apart families and peaceful communities

Umm, first off, how many times can I “LIKE” that image?! (Asking for a ... actually, no, I'm asking for me!)

Great article by Betsy McCaughey on the idiocy of liberals putting illegals, especially VIOLENT illegals, over Americans & LEGAL immigrants!

A staggering 80% of those apprehended in recent ICE raids in New York were either convicted criminals or charged with crimes. 

Clearly, THEY are victims!  #eyeroll

New York Governor is parroting Democrats across the nation who claim ICE should be abolished because it's breaking apart families and peaceful communities.

Peaceful my ass! Many of these poor communities are being terrorized & destroyed. If not be Democrat politicians, by violent gangs. Who is looking out for the people in the community ... in NON election years that is?

The governor complained that Aguilar's children had to watch their father being pinned by officers to block his escape.

Boo-friggin-hoo!! I’m more concerned about AMERICAN kids. Democrats NEVER seem to mention THEM. Oh, unless they can someone exploit them to call anyone who disagrees with them a heartless POS!

January 2016, at least 25 Long Island youths have been executed by the MS-13 gang of Central American illegal immigrants. Some of the victims are left so mutilated they can hardly be identified. MS-13 beats the youngsters with baseball bats, puts plastic bags over their heads to suffocate them, and then slices off their noses, ears and lips with machetes.

Yeah, THESE are the best & the brightest! THESE are who Democrats are fighting for! POTUS was NOT wrong when he mentioned all the “bad hombres” our non existent immigration system has let in America.

Donald Trump calls them "animals" who have turned peaceful neighborhoods "into bloodstained killing fields." He's got the right plan: "We will find you. We will arrest you. We will jail you. And we will deport you."

There are a lot of different delegate trackers out there, and my count will differ from other sources in various places.  I note the major discrepancies on the tracker itself, but to track down any residual uncertainty, let’s go through and suss out the other differences.

The other delegate trackers I am comparing my count with are from CNN, the AP, The Green Papers, FHQ, and Taniel.  CBS and NBC also have their own trackers, but they are generally inferior in quality to the others.

Not included in this accounting are differences due to varying handling of unbound delegates who have endorsed or delegates formerly bound to Rubio or other dropped-out candidates.  What is being tracked in this post are differences in pledged delegate counts for the three candidates still in the race.

Arkansas (Trump 16 - Cruz 15 - Rubio 9)

FHQ has yet to call one of the delegates here for Cruz; presumably the one in CD 3, which is still missing an entire county.

Georgia (Trump 42 - Cruz 18 - Rubio 16)

Taniel, FHQ, and The Green Papers allocate the RNC members as a WTA bloc separately from the rest of the At-Large delegation, resulting in numbers that are more favorable to Trump.  The Green Papers has a strange interpretation of the rounding rules that makes their count differ from FHQ’s; Taniel’s also differs, though not in the same fashion.

Tennessee (Trump 33 - Cruz 16 - Rubio 9)

The AP is slow to call the delegates in CD 9, for some reason.

Mississippi (Trump 25 - Cruz 15)

Whether Trump hits 50% and the WTA threshold in CDs 2, 3, and 4 is still unclear.  The AP, CNN, and FHQ don’t call the resulting 3 delegates.

Virgin Islands (Uncommitted 9)

This is a complete mess, likely to devolve into a credentials fight.  I keep all 9 as uncommitted as a conservative estimate here; it also has the side benefit of reflecting who I think will win the credentials fight.

Wyoming (Cruz 23 - Trump 1 - Rubio 1 - Uncommitted 4)

Based on the county results, I have called the State Convention as a Cruz sweep.  This may prove to be an early call, and no other source has made it.

Illinois (Trump 54 - Cruz 9 - Kasich 6)

The AP and CNN have yet to call a few CD delegates here.

Missouri (Trump 37 - Cruz 15)

The AP and CNN have yet to call the statewide winner and the corresponding 12 delegates.

North Carolina (Trump 29 - Cruz 27 - Kasich 9 - Rubio 6 - Carson 1)

This year, the RNC has made it harder than ever for there to be unbound delegates, by forcing states to allocate and bind their delegates on the basis of any statewide vote.  This removes two major sources of unbound delegates that existed in prior years: the 3 RNC members in most states, and delegates from caucus/convention states.  However, there are four loopholes that allow unbound delegates:

States that never hold a statewide presidential preference vote (Colorado, Wyoming, North Dakota, Guam, American Samoa, and the Virgin Islands).

States that directly elect delegates on the ballot.  (Pennsylvania)

States that allow for Uncommitted delegates to be elected on the basis of the statewide vote due to high thresholds (Louisiana, Oklahoma)

Delegates initially allocated to candidates who later suspend their campaigns, withdraw their candidacy, or release their delegates.

Note that some states in the first two categories allow for delegates to pledge themselves to a particular candidate; such pledges are considered binding.  This is relevant in Wyoming, Colorado, Illinois, and West Virginia.

There are currently 148 unbound delegates (6% of the total).  Their endorsements break down as:

Cruz - 5

Trump - 2

Kasich - 1

Uncommitted - 141

They break down by state as follows:

Alabama (1)

Dean Brandon [Rubio]

Alaska (5)

The 5 Rubio delegates will be chosen on April 30.

American Samoa (9)

Utu Abe Malae

Amata Radewagen

Su'a Schuster

John Raynar - Trump

Taulapapa William Sword

Charles Warren - Cruz

Tina Ioane - Trump

Ann Longnecker

Joan Galea'i Holland 

Colorado (3)

Steve House

Lily Nuñez

George Leing

Guam (9)

Gov. Eddie Calvo -  Cruz

Sen. Frank Blas Jr.

Sen. Tony Ada

Juan Carlos Benitez

Benny Pinaula

Telo Taitague

Mike Benito

Margaret Metcalfe

David Sablan

Louisiana (10):

Stephanie Berault [Rubio]

Robert Williamson [Rubio]

Jennifer LeBlanc [Rubio]

Luke Letlow [Rubio]

Leslie Tassin Sr. [Rubio]

Rhett Davis

Jason Doré

Ross Little Jr. - Cruz

Roger Villere, Jr.

Lenar Whitney - Cruz

Minnesota (17)

The 17 Rubio delegates will be chosen by May 20.

New Hampshire (5)

Judd Gregg [Bush] - Kasich

Jennifer Horn [Bush; RNC]

James H. Adams [Bush]

James F. Merrill [Rubio]

Gordon J. MacDonald [Rubio]

North Dakota (28)

Kelly Armstrong

Sandy Boehler

Curly Haugland

Rick Becker - Cruz

Jack Dalrymple (Governor)

Wayne Stenehjem (Attorney General) - staying neutral

Shane Goettle - Cruz

Jim Poolman   Cruz (perhaps only leaning)

Bette Grande   Cruz

Dick Dever - on Cruz slate (unwillingly), prefers Kasich but undecided.

Wesley Belter   Cruz

David Hogue   Cruz

Jessica Unruh   Cruz

Betsy Dalrymple (First Lady)

Ben Koppelman   Cruz

Mark Owens   Cruz

Gary Emineth - leans Trump   

Janna Myrdal   Cruz

Roscoe Streyle   Cruz

John Trandem   Cruz

Clare Carlson   Cruz

Scott Louser   Cruz

John Olson   

Daniel Traynor   Cruz (prefers Kasich but supporting Cruz)

James Kerian   Cruz

Judy Estenson   Cruz

Kelly Schmidt (State Treasurer) - leans Cruz

Bob Wefald 

The Cruz supporters listed above were elected from a slate distributed by the Cruz campaign; some (like Dick Dever) may actually be Kasich supporters, so we’ll be keeping an eye on them.

Oklahoma (15)

The 12 Rubio and 3 Uncommitted delegates will be chosen by May 14.

Pennsylvania (54)

54 unbound delegates will be directly elected in the April 26 primary.

Virgin Islands (9)

John Yob*

Gwendolyn Brady

Warren Cole

Erica Yob*

George Logan

Lindsey Eilon*

John Canegata

Lilliana Belardo de O'Neal

Holland Redfield III

* These delegates are subject to a court challenge, and could be replaced with 2 Uncommitted and 1 Rubio delegate.

Wyoming (5)

Matt Micheli

Marti Halverson

Greg Schaefer

Ogden Driskill

Tammy Hooper [Rubio] - Cruz

What happens to Rubio’s delegates since the suspension of his campaign varies a lot from state to state.  They break down into four main classes, listed below.  Note that I am assuming that Rubio is not considered to have “withdrawn,” but that he will not be a candidate placed into nomination at Cleveland.  All of the information here is for the first ballot only.

Loses Them (43+3):

Louisiana (5)

Alabama (1) - de facto released on March 1. 

Alaska (5) - Rubio is not considered to have "dropped out," so his delegates are not reallocated.  However, as he does not "maintain an active campaign"), his delegates are no longer bound to him. 

Wyoming (1) - unclear, but presumably unbound as Rubio is no longer "still in the race." 

Minnesota (17) - MN GOP says released if Rubio “is not on the first ballot,” though pledge form says bound until he “withdraws.”

New Hampshire (2) - bound “so long as he shall be a candidate before said convention.”  This also applies to Bush's 3 delegates. 

Oklahoma (12) - bound until Rubio "is for any reason no longer a candidate."

Bound Until Rubio Withdraws (39):

DC (10)

Georgia (16)

Hawaii (1) 

Tennessee (9) - unclear, but presumably released if he "withdraws."

Texas (3) - He may also release them.

Bound Until Released (60+2):

Arkansas (9) 

Massachusetts (8) 

Kansas (6) 

Kentucky (7) -  If they are released, they are reallocated on the basis of a secret vote of the whole delegation. 

Nevada (7) - Rubio may keep, release or reallocate his delegates, at his option. This also applies to Carson's 2 delegates. 

Puerto Rico (23)

Keeps Them (29+4)

Iowa (7) - remain bound "regardless."  This also applies to Carson's 3 delegates and 1 delegate each for Bush, Paul, Fiorina, and Huckabee.

North Carolina (6) - bound regardless. This also includes Carson's 1 delegate here.

Welcome to The Delegate Fight, tracking the details of US Presidential nomination contests for both parties since 2007.  At long last, I’ve decided to bring The Delegate Fight into the 2010s (or perhaps just the 21st century) by reposting it as a blog, rather than the forum threads on US Election Atlas where it has resided for the past eight years.  For those coming from the Atlas, you will always be able to find all the info posted here in the original thread, along with additional discussion.