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Why the SEC Delayed Prediction Market ETF Approvals

The SEC just paused more than two dozen prediction market ETFs from Roundhill, Bitwise, and GraniteShares days before the 75-day rule made them effective. Here is why it happened and what each outcome looks like.

The SEC has temporarily blocked the launch of 24 prediction ETFs from providers including Bitwise, Roundhill, and GraniteShares.

These products were designed to let investors bet on political and economic outcomes, such as the 2028 US presidential election, potential layoffs in the tech sector, or the likelihood of a recession.

Unlike traditional ETFs that track assets like Bitcoin or the S&P 500, prediction ETFs work more like binary event contracts. The outcome is usually yes or no — and if the event does not happen as predicted, investors could lose their entire stake.

Key points:

— 24 prediction ETFs were set to launch this week; — the SEC delayed the launch for further review; — issuers had filed applications in February; — the products were expected to receive automatic approval under fast-track rules; — the SEC is now examining investor risks and product structure; — the CFTC and US states are also fighting over who should regulate event contracts.

The broader issue is whether these products are legitimate financial instruments, regulated derivatives, or a form of gambling.

SEC Delays Review of Prediction Market ETFs From Roundhill, Bitwise

The SEC has postponed the review of prediction market ETFs from Roundhill, Bitwise, and GraniteShares, citing concerns over structure and disclosures.

First prediction market ETFs could launch next week, Bloomberg analyst says

Roundhill’s SEC filing set a May 5 effective date for its prediction market ETFs, which analysts say could pave the way for a launch next week.

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