New odds mean a large quake on the Garlock fault is much more likely and the chance of a large quake on the San Andreas has also increased.
This is 2020. Things can always get worse.
Earthquake prediction is roughly where hurricane prediction was 85 years ago. But the science is steadily improving.
There were strong earthquakes that affected Ridgecrest, California near the Garlock Fault over the 4th of July holiday in 2019. Seismologists now think that these temblors could make a magnitude 7.5 earthquake along the larger San Andreas Fault more likely.
At its closest, the San Andreas fault comes within 35 miles of downtown Los Angeles.
“Now, you can think of the Ridgecrest earthquake as being so far from Greater Los Angeles ... that it is nearly harmless,” said [Ross] Stein, an earthquake scientist emeritus of the U.S. Geological Survey and adjunct professor of geophysics at Stanford University.
“But the problem is that ... the Ridgecrest earthquake brought the Garlock fault closer to rupture. If that fault ruptures — and it gets within about 25 miles of the San Andreas — then there’s a high likelihood, maybe a 50/50 shot, that it would immediately rupture on the San Andreas,” Stein said. Stein’s coauthor on the study is Shinji Toda, of Tohoku University in Japan.
Knowing what we already know about Donald Trump’s response to disasters, the people of Southern California can expect little more in disaster relief than Trump tossing paper towels and hydroxychloroquine to earthquake survivors from a helicopter.
