#predictingrecessions

The Sahm Rule, a recession indicator named after former Federal Reserve economist Michael Sahm, has gained attention on Wall Street for its success in predicting economic downturns. The rule states that when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by at least 0.5 percentage points above its minimum level over the past year, […]

The Sahm Rule, a recession indicator named after former Federal Reserve economist Michael Sahm, has gained attention on Wall Street for its success in predicting economic downturns. The rule states that when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by at least 0.5 percentage points above its minimum level over the past year, […]