#population reference bureau

The video above is a webinar conducted by two demographers, Carl Haub and Wendy Baldwin, on behalf of the Population Reference Bureau. PRB's 2012 Population data sheet has 19 demographic, environmental, and health indicators for over 200 countries. The webinar summarizes some of the key findings of the data sheet, such as the fact that much of the world's population growth over the next 40 years will occur almost exclusively in developing countries.

Linked is a blog post by Carl Haub of the Population Reference Bureau. In it, he examines the continuing downward trend in the American fertility rate, and hesitantly posits the 'Great Recession' as a primary factor. Of course, there are many variables impacting any movement in a country's TFR, but it is probably no coincidence that the negative trajectory commenced just as the Lehman Brothers began to melt down, as his provided graphic explains.

In addition to economic reasons though, many other determinants are worth investigating. Among others, this includes trends among different ethnic groups and changing social norms/desired family sizes, a topic which both Mr. Haub and I promise to touch on in future posts.

Finally, an interesting prognosis for a future uptick in the number of American babies, showing just how closely linked demography is to other social sciences: 

Since everyone blames the global recession for the downturn, fertility should rise as the economic outlook improves, right? If that does prove to be the case, several factors may prevent it from happening quickly. There would have to be confidence that recovery is real and not likely to falter. Then, for those couples who foresee a brighter economic outlook, there is the obvious nine-month delay. Perhaps the smaller decline in 2011 births suggests that this has already begun to happen.

Another great video by Carl Haub on the birth rate, how it is measured, how it interacts with other demographic variables, and what it means for a society's population and demographic trend.