What we already know about the 2030s
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What we already know about the 2030s

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Making sense of futures
I was invited to talk about futures recently at the Royal College of Defence Studies In London. Most of the event was unattributable, but our initial remarks were recorded, so I can share a version of them here. Futures, in its modern version, is a child of the Second World War. It has two foundational strands, one in the United States, funded by the Department of Defense, and associated with…
Giant Leap, or Too Little Too Late
‘Giant Leap, or ‘Too Little Too Late’. How futures is failing us—a ‘provocation’. New post on The Next Wave’.
I was invited to speak at the end of January at an event to mark the last decade of the journal Futures, and the retirement as editor-in-chief of Professor Ted Fuller. I was asked for a five minute ‘provocation’ looking backwards and forwards at futures work, and this represents the ‘director’s cut’ of that, since it includes some of the material that I cut for the event to stay to time. Finding…
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Even if they saw it coming they didn't do anything.
Banking regulators identified Northern Rock as the weak link in Britain's banking system during secret "war games" held as long ago as 2004, the Financial Times has learned.
The risk simulation planning, conducted by the Financial Services Authority, the Bank of England and the Treasury, made clear the systemic risks posed by Northern Rock's business model, and its domino effect on HBOS, then the UK's largest mortgage lender.
The revelation is at odds with government officials' insistence that no one could have foreseen the September 2007 collapse of Northern Rock or the subsequent rescue of HBOS, which was sold to Lloyds Bank.
This is what Pierre Wack meant when he said that "scenarios should be more than water on a stone" - successful scenario processes should actually make a difference. This puts more emphasis on integrating strategic thinking with action rather than just create elegant scenarios.