My Top Ten Frontrunners for the Next Pope
Several cardinals are considered possible candidates to become the next Pope. But I've narrow it down ten contenders who have a shot that I like to succeed Pope Francis.
Cardinal Angelo Scola (Italy, 83) ππ¦π¦π¦
Former Archbishop of Milan, Scola has long been considered a papabile candidate. His theological expertise and conservative views make him a strong candidate for those who seek continuity with traditional teachings. The former Archbishop of Milan was a frontrunner in 2013 when Francis was chosen, but he is thought to have fallen victim to the adage of entering the conclave as Pope and leaving as cardinal.
Cardinal Reinhard Marx (German, 71) ππ¦π¦
The Archbishop of Munich and Freising was chosen as an adviser when Francis became pope in 2013. For 10 years he advised the Pope on Church reform and still oversees financial reform of the Vatican. He has advocated a more accommodating approach towards homosexuals or transgender people in Catholic teaching. But in 2021 he offered to resign over serious mistakes in tackling child sexual abuse in Germany's Catholic Church. That resignation was rejected by Francis.
Cardinal Marc Ouellet (Canadian, 80) ππ¦π¦π¦
Cardinal Ouellet has twice before been seen as a potential candidate for Pope, in 2005 and 2013. For years he ran the Vatican's Dicastery for Bishops, which chooses candidates for the episcopate around the world, so he has played a significant and formative role in vetting the future members of the Catholic hierarchy. As another octogenarian, he will not be able to play a part in the conclave itself, which may hinder his chances. Ouellet is viewed as a conservative with a modern outlook, who is strongly in favour of maintaining the principle of celibacy for priests.
Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline (French, 66) ππ¦π¦π¦π¦
Aveline is known for his folksy, easy-going nature, his readiness to crack jokes, and his ideological proximity to Francis, especially on immigration and relations with the Muslim world. He is also a serious intellectual, with a doctorate in theology and a degree in philosophy. According to the French press, he is known in some domestic Catholic circles as John XXIV, in a nod to his resemblance to Pope John XXIII, the round-faced reforming pope of the early 1960s. If he got the top job, Aveline would become the first French pope since the 14th century, and also be the youngest pope since John Paul II. He understands but does not speak Italian - potentially a major drawback for a job that also carries the title Bishop of Rome and requires a lot of familiarity with Roman power games and intrigues.
Cardinal Peter Erdo (Hungary, 72) ππ¦
Erdo was already considered a papal contender in the last conclave in 2013 thanks to his extensive Church contacts in Europe and Africa as well as the fact that he was seen as a pioneer of the New Evangelisation drive to rekindle the Catholic faith in secularized advanced nations -- a top priority for many cardinals. He has excellent Italian, and also speaks German, French, Spanish and Russian -- which could help him thaw relations between the Catholic and Russian Orthodox Churches after the deep chill of the war in Ukraine. Erdo is not a charismatic speaker, but while this was once undoubtedly viewed as a serious drawback, it could potentially be seen as an advantage this time around if cardinals want a calm papacy following the fireworks of Francis' rule.
Cardinal Mario Grech (Maltese, 68) ππ¦π¦π¦
Grech comes from Gozo, a tiny island that is part of Malta, the smallest country in the European Union. But from small beginnings he has gone on to big things, appointed by Pope Francis to be secretary general of the Synod of Bishops -- a heavyweight position within the Vatican. His views have won him some high-profile enemies, and conservative Cardinal Gerhard Muller memorably turned on him in 2022, belittling his academic profile and accusing him of going against Catholic doctrine.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy, 70) ππ¦
The Vaticanβs Secretary of State, Parolin is a key figure in the diplomatic wing of the Holy See. As a moderate, heβs considered a natural extension of Pope Francis' policies. Parolin is seen as a compromise candidate between progressives and conservatives. He has been a Church diplomat for most of his life. A softly spoken and genteel person, Parolin would return the papacy to the Italians after three successive non-Italian popes - John Paul II of Poland, Benedict of Germany and Francis of Argentina.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle (Filipino, 67) ππ¦
Tagle is often called the "Asian Francis" because of his similar commitment to social justice and if elected he would be the first pontiff from Asia. On paper, Tagle, who generally prefers to be called by his nickname "Chito", seems to have all the boxes ticked to qualify him to be a pope. He has had decades of pastoral experience since his ordination to the priesthood in 1982. He then gained administrative experience, first as bishop of Imus and then as archbishop of Manila. Tagle is seen as a possible front-runner to continue Pope Francis's progressive agenda.
Cardinal Joseph Tobin (American, 72) ππ¦π¦π¦π¦π¦
It's unlikely the world's cardinals would pick the first ever U.S. pope, but if they were up for that, Tobin would seem the likeliest possibility. A former global leader of a major Catholic religious order known as the Redemptorists, the Detroit native has spent time in countries around the world and speaks Italian, Spanish, French and Portuguese fluently. He also has experience in Vatican service and in top positions across the U.S. church. He is known for an attitude of openness toward LGBT people, writing in 2017 that "in too many parts of our church LGBT people have been made to feel unwelcome, excluded, and even shamed".
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy, 69) ππ¦π¦
An insider within Pope Francis' Vatican, Zuppi is seen as a moderate who could continue the pontiffβs agenda. He is known for his focus on inclusivity and social justice. When Zuppi got a promotion in 2015 and became archbishop of Bologna, national media referred to him as the "Italian Bergoglio", due to his affinity with Francis, the Argentine pope who was born Jorge Mario Bergoglio. Much like Pope Francis when he lived in Buenos Aires, Zuppi is known as a "street priest" who focuses on migrants and the poor, and cares little about pomp and protocol. He goes by the name of "Father Matteo", and in Bologna he sometimes uses a bicycle rather than an official car.
Cardinal Timothy M. Dolan (America, 75) ππ¦π¦π¦π¦π¦
Of course I have to add my dark horse pick.
