#permanent interests

Nations have no permanent friends, or permanent enemies; only permanent interests.”

- Prince Metternich of Austria at the Congress of Vienna

Remember that episode of the Sopranos where the guy they had loansharked money to couldn’t pay off, so they took over his sporting goods store and did a “bust out” that destroyed the business and left him with nothing but “the inevitability of suicide? Donald Trump has done that to the United States, and it only took him a bit more than 14 months to get there.

I’m not just talking about economics, in which he certainly has destroyed the solid economy that he inherited from Biden. He’s also bankrupted the standing of the United States in the world. We are not ever going back to what existed before January 20, 2025 - at least not in the lifetimes of most of you reading this.

Trump can play “crazy madman” all he wants - as he did with one of his looniest posts to Lies Anti-Social ever for an “Easter message: “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fucken’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Alla. President DONALD J. TRUMP” This is the debased, digital version of Nison’s “madman theory” - that the president might really be unstable and one shouldn’t test him - but it’s merely more vulgar theatricality. Another attempt by a failed real estate mogul to use the “negotiation tactics” he always has. As Michael Cohen pointed out - and he should know - “... he does not negotiate so much as he escalates. Deadlines, ultimatums, theatrics.” That doesn’t work against an opponent who would consider martyrdom a victory, an opponent who’s been preparing for these events for 50 years, who takes every threat as proof they’ve been right about the U.S. all along - that we are indeed The Great Satan. Do note, however, that the threats to inflict Armageddon have been pushed back 24 hours (once again). Today was supposed to be Der Tag; now it’s tomorrow. A smart money bet would be that this evening it gets pushed to Wednesday. Truimp’s threat is not only aimed at Iran, it’s aimed at the American public, U.S. allies, financial markets, energy traders, military families, and everyone attempting to figure out whether he’s making an actual operational intent, venting, bluffing, or simply enjoying the performance of sounding unhinged. ( In other words, the post does not create productive uncertainty only for the adversary. It creates corrosive uncertainty for everyone. What it is, is Trump treating a threat of war as another domination tactic to be used on whatever company he intends to not pay for services rendered.

In case you were wondering what the above was, it was more Trumpshit. As proven by the fact that this morning after posting that, he told Fox News’s Trey Yingst that he believes the U.S. will be able to hammer out a deal to reopen the vital shipping route on Monday. The president told Fox that Tehran and Washington were engaged in talks Sunday.

It won’t work.

Why?

Re-read the quote at t he beginning. It is the purest distillation of international politics ever written. And the permanent interests of the majority of the nation-states of earth no longer include looking to any leadership from the United States on any topic. We are already no longer “the essential nation” we had been for the 80 years before the idiocy of the American public returned Trump to office, despite having had four years to see how bad he was. Those who warned he would be worse the second time around were sadly right. Abraham Lincoln was right in his 1838 speech, that if the United States ever failed, we would be the authors of its demise. And it’s not just 77 million ill-informed voters who stand guilty as charged. It took all of us. All of us who didn’t pay attention to reality over the past 50 years as the path was laid for this. Consider that Friday, a tanker owned by France transited Hormuz, the result of an agreement with Iran. Our Allies are not going to “take Hormuz themselves” for us.

French President Emmanuel Macron has taken a hard line against Trump’s war, rejecting Trump’s pleas to NATO allies to join offensive operations to open the Strait. “They cannot then complain about not being supported in an operation they decided on their own. It is not our operation.”

After he destroyed U.S. economic leadership over the past 12 months since his declaration of “Liberation Day” led to the destruction of the world economic order, his war with Iran - which he now cannot win no matter what he does - has now made the United States dispensible in the plans of the rest of the world of how to cope with what his war of choice has created - which is the opposite of what this fucking most persistent ignoramus in the nation’s history thought he was creating. Just as he bankrupted two casinos as he “made them great,” he has bankrupted us. And this time there is no Daddy to send an underling to the casino to buy a few billion in chips and avert complete disaster.

Whatever “hellfire” this persistent ignoramus thinks he can “reign down” (his spelling, showing his illiteracy) on Iran starting Monday (er, Tuesday according to the latest BS, which will become Wednesday tomorrow) at the end of his “grace period” for Iran to surrender, will not have the effect he thinks it will. As Professor Robert Pape pointed out in his Saturday presentation, should the United States or Israel attempt to use nuclear weapons to impose their will, they will completely destroy their positions in the world. That’s because of the wind. Any nuke exploded in Iran will truly “rain down” radioactivity on all the surrounding countries, most particularly the countries in the Gulf that have been allied with us. That’s just for starters. Such an event will also mean that 20% of the world’s energy will become untouchable for at least two generations. If you think the forecasts of what will happen with only a few months of that oil cut off, those forecasts would be the Pollyanna Crazy Optimist Forecast compared to the worldwide economic contraction such an act would bring on. If we think the world doesn’t like us very much right now, wait until they all actively hate us for having done that.

A reputation takes a lifetime to create and a minute to destroy. And rebuilding such a reputation takes several lifetimes of walking the walk to convince those who were betrayed that we are worthy of any trust again.

There is no offer he can now make to Iran that is better than their position following acquisition of world power status from their new power to deny the supply of one-fifth of the world’s major energy resource to those countries that depend on what comes through the Straits of Hormuz. That list includes most of Europe and all of Asia. In the past week alone, nations whose governments needed the support they received by allying with or agreeing to follow the leadership of the United States have found such a connection to be a liablity. Those governments are already moving away from their involvements with the United States in order to qualify for Iranian dispensation for their ability to obtain their oil again through Hormuz; it will soon include those countries that survive from being able to export through the straits, after Trump surrendered the possibility of changing the new Iranian status as the power that controls movement through Hormuz. Trump is too stupid to realize even now important it was to us for the Straits of Hormuz to be open. No nation has ever achieved world power status - which Iran now has - and given it up willingly. Trump is now the gambler who doesn’t even have two deuces in his cards.

During Wednesday night’s “speech-like event,” Trump called on countries dealing with fuel supply shocks brought on by the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran to purchase more from America: “Buy oil from the United States of America. We have plenty.” No, actually, we don’t.

We do have a lot of oil, but not close to having enough to make up for the supply bottled up behind the Strait of Hormuz by Iran. U.S. crude prices jumped more than $11 Thursday, to land at $111.54 a barrel, the biggest gain in years. Global crude oil benchmark Brent Crude closed above $108. AAA reports the average U.S. gasoline price is now $4.08 per gallon. I have already seen $6/gallon here in Los Angeles, where we have no real alternative to cars for transportation.

Last Monday, the last oil exported through Hormuz arrived at its destinations. There are no more tankers transporting oil anywhere, other than those whose countries of origin have made - or will make - an agreement with Iran to stay out of the war.

Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries have begun fuel rationing and curbing gasoline demand with measures like school closures and four-day work weeks. The major Asian airlines have announced they will reduce flight. Australia reports fuel shortages at service stations. In Europe, airlines are warning of cuts if the crisis drags on.

Nations have no permanent friends, or permanent enemies; only permanent interests. How long does anyone think it is going to take Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Australia, New Zealand, to come to agreements with Iran? This is Iran as the new world power they have become. Is there anything the United States could say or do - after what has been inflicted on the economies of those countries in the 12 months since “Liberation Day” - that would keep them from making such agreements and recognizing the new world power?

China has now joined Russia in providing targeting information to the IRGC. If Trump does decide to “reign fire,” Iran has said they will target desalinization plants throughout the Gulf. 95% of the populations of the Gulf Sates depend for their fresh water on those plants. If Iran gives those countries 72 hours to end their alliances with the United States or suffer that attack, does anyone think it will take as much as 12 hours for their agreements? How does the United States then fight a war when the bases it depends on are in “unfriendly” nations? Nations have no permanent friends, or permanent enemies; only permanent interests. Topping those interests is national survival.

Here, United Airlines plans to cut 5% of its capacity to deal with rising fuel prices; ticket prices on other airlines are now 150% of what they were two weeks ago and sure to rise higher. Tom Kloza, chief energy adviser for Gulf Oil said: “If we supply certain amounts to the rest of the world, you will see an outcry. If we’re exporting gasoline during hurricane season and people are paying $5 a gallon, do you think they’ll tolerate that? I don’t think so.”

This report from the Guardian Sunday demonstrates what I’m talking about: South Korea’s finance minister met with envoys from Gulf countries to shore up energy security and the safety of Korean vessels near the strait of Hormuz, the ministry said on Sunday, as the escalating Iran war disrupts shipping. In the meeting on Friday, Koo Yun-cheol asked the Gulf Cooperation Council ambassadors to ensure a steady supply of oil, liquefied natural gas, naphtha, urea and other critical resources, and to ensure the safety of Korean vessels and crew near the vital strait, the ministry said in a statement. The envoys said South Korea is a “top priority” nation and pledged to communicate closely with Seoul to ensure stable supply, the statement said. (South Korea’s next step will be to contact the Iranians.)

Michael Cohen - who probably knows Dilbert’s moves better than anyone, posted this explanation of what’s going on this morning: “On one side, you have President Trump, a man I know better than almost anyone. A man who It has always been his playbook. Only now, instead of a boardroom or a courtroom, the stage is the Persian Gulf, and the stakes are measured in lives, economies, and the fragile architecture of global stability. On the other side stands Ali Khamenei, or whichever hardline faction is truly pulling the strings inside Tehran. And here is the uncomfortable truth: for all their ideological differences, these two men are cut from a similar cloth. Neither bends. Neither concedes. Both derive power from defiance. Both understand that backing down is not just a political loss. It is an existential one.

“So when Trump gives Iran a timeline ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, he is not issuing a diplomatic request. He is setting a fuse. But here is where experience matters, and where his instincts become dangerous. Because Iran does not see pressure the same way. Pressure, for them, is validation. It reinforces the narrative they have built for decades: that the United States is an aggressor, that resistance is survival, that capitulation equals collapse. For the current regime to remain in power, it must not just resist. It must be seen resisting.

“Here is what I learned sitting just feet away from Trump for almost a decade and a half: he believes in domination, not resolution. He believes that overwhelming force compels submission. And in many contexts, real estate, media, even politics, that approach can work. But geopolitics is not a Manhattan zoning dispute. You do not win against a regime that equates martyrdom with victory. You do not intimidate a leadership structure that thrives on confrontation. And you certainly do not impose a ticking clock on a culture that has spent decades preparing for exactly this kind of showdown.”

This morning, after posting the loonie “Praise Allah!” thing, Trump then told Fux Snooze’s Trey Yingst that he believes the U.S. will be able to hammer out a deal to reopen the vital shipping route on Monday. The president told Fox that Tehran and Washington were engaged in talks Sunday.

The U.S. and Iran are not “engaged in talks” today. After he said all this, Dilbert went to his seedy Trump National golf course. If I had to bet, my bet is he’s engaged in another Wall Street scam, roiling the markets (the latest, he says he “doesn’t rule out” boots on the ground if Iran doesn’t knuckle under) so his in-crowd can run another insider-trading scam. I’m sure he gets a percentage of the profits.

We were made for this time. We are the ones we were waiting for.

“Neither let us be slandered from our duty by false accusations against us, nor frightened from it by menaces of destruction to the Government, nor of dungeons to ourselves. Let us have faith that right makes might; and in that faith, let us, to the end, dare to do our duty, as we understand it.”

- Abraham Lincoln