TL;DR — Beijing wants cheap oil and chill vibes, hates the chaos, and will spin this mess to look like the “responsible grown-up” in the room.

💤 1. Disappointed but Not Surprised

Trump’s Iran strike = parent-at-dinner-table energy from Beijing.

Foreign Ministry rolled out the classic script: “condemn unilateral force, respect sovereignty, seek dialogue.” 🙄

⛽ 2. Oil Is Life

World’s #1 oil importer = China.

Iran = big supplier via totally-legit sanctions-dodging channels 👀.

Gulf war = nightmare for China’s economy.

Trump quietly okayed Beijing’s oil buys → China: “Cool, we’ll just be over here, thanks.”

😤 3. Narrative Crash & Burn

March 2023: China brokered the Saudi-Iran détente (diplomatic flex).

US bombs Iran → wrecks Beijing’s “China brings peace, America brings chaos” storyline.

Expect Chinese state media to milk that angle HARD.

🎲 4. Strategic Pros & Cons

Pros

US distracted in the Middle East = less focus on South China Sea. 🎉

Cons

Pre-emptive strikes set a precedent China hates (North Korea déjà vu).

Makes everyone edgy about hitting nuclear sites—including Chinese ones someday.

💸 5. Beijing’s Playbook

25-year cooperation deal with Iran → keep Tehran afloat, but no shooting war.

State media amplifies Iranian/Russian outrage to win hearts in the Global South.

Privately: “Please, no nukes. They’re bad for oil prices and regional stability.”

🛠️ 6. The “Adult in the Room” Phase

Diplomatic overdrive: propose new talks, offer Beijing as venue, sell “responsible superpower” brand.

Push narrative: “US adventurism caused this mess, China offers solutions.”

🧘‍♂️ 7. What China Really Wants

Stable oil routes, zero nuclear arms race, and a quiet Gulf so it can keep stacking cash.

Translation: “Everybody just chill so we can trade in peace.”

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