#odds comparison

Here's something a lot of people don't realize when they first get into election betting: the exact same candidate can be 54% on Polymarket, 60% on Kalshi, and +130 on DraftKings -- all at the same time, on the same race.

That's not a bug. That's the market.

And for bettors who understand it, that's an opportunity.

Why This Happens

Political betting in the US is genuinely fragmented. You've got prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt) operating under different rules, with different user bases and different fee structures. Then you've got traditional sportsbooks like DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM adding political markets where their state licenses allow it.

Polymarket runs on crypto and attracts speculators. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and draws finance types. PredictIt has $850 account limits that make it act weird. DraftKings adjusts lines based on where the public is betting, not necessarily what's most accurate.

All of these factors mean prices diverge. Sometimes by a lot.

The Simple Play

Find the platform pricing your preferred outcome most favorably. If you want to back the Democrat, find where Democratic odds are longest. If you want to back the Republican, find where Republican odds are longest. Don't just go to the first site you check.

A 5% difference in implied probability sounds small. It isn't. If you're betting $100 contracts, a 55-cent buy versus a 60-cent buy on the same outcome is a meaningful difference in your expected return if you're right.

Where to Actually Compare

You can check US presidential election odds (https://oddsguard.com/odds/us/al/politics/us_presidential_election_winner) across multiple platforms in one place rather than bouncing between sites manually. Takes 30 seconds. Worth doing every single time before you commit money.

When the Gaps Are Biggest

Price gaps widen most right after major events -- debates, primary results, surprise news. Prediction markets reprice faster than sportsbooks because they're driven by active traders around the clock. In the hours after a major development, you can find legitimate 8-10% differences between platforms.

That's the window. That's when comparison shopping from active bettors pays off the most.

The Short Version

Election betting is newer and less efficient than sports betting. Newer markets mean bigger price gaps. Bigger price gaps mean more opportunity for bettors who do their homework. The homework isn't complicated -- it's just checking multiple platforms before you bet.

In the United States, odds are a fraction of $100. The easiest way to think about it is to follow the graphic above, whereby-

+100 means you double your money

+150 means you earn 150% of your money in profits

-150 means you would have to place $150 in order to win $100. This can be harder to understand, but 100/150 = .667, hence a $100 bet won at -150 would pay out $167

So, we can see that negative odds pay out less, meaning that the team are the favorites. The most common betting odds in US betting are -110, with the 10 (about 10%) representing the ‘vig’ or ‘juice’, expressions for the Sportsbook or bookies’ profits. In theory, the sportsbook takes 10% of every bet. However, see or article for other ways they also make money-How do Sportsbooks make their money. You need to use the best betting prediction sites to beat these! We hope you will find all you need to know right here-you could start with our article on How to become a profitable sports bettor!

This is a basic concept that basically says you should look at betting as a long-run exercise. As long as you find positive EV bets all the time, you will win out. In other words, do not fret about losing 5 in a row. If they were truly positive EV bets, you will become profitable. To understand what is a positive EB bet, you need enough knowledge to assess the probabilities of a match outcome. Here is an example- Take a Moneyline bet with a genuine 50/50 betting line, i.e. both teams are at American odds of -110 (rare to find)