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Vouronpatra, a large bird which haunts the Ampatres (swamps in the central highlands) and lays eggs like the ostrich's; so that the people of these places may not take it, it seeks the most lonely places. Admiral Ètienne de Flacourt in his Histoire de la Grande Isle de Madagascar, 1658. Elephant bird eggs.D.Bressan In 1840 an unnamed explorer sent some remains of a gigantic egg from the African island of Madagascar to the French zoologist Paul Gervais, who identified the fragments as belonging to an ostrich egg. Only in 1851, the existence of a yet unknown giant bird was announced during a meeting of the Académie des Sciences, based on the discovery of a complete egg, six-times as big as an ostrich egg. Fifteen years later the first skeleton of an elephant bird, belonging to the family Aepyornithidae, was discovered. Since then various species were described, based on more or less fragmentary fossils. Aepyornis maximus, described by French naturalist Geoffroy Saint-Hilaire in 1851, has often been considered to be the world's largest bird ever. In 1894, British scientist C.W. Andrews described an even larger species, Aepyornis titan, however as there is often sexual dimorphism to be found in birds, this species was dismissed as a large specimen of A. maximus. Apart from the genus Aepyornis,  Aepyornithidae comprises also the genus Mullerornis. However, over time there was much confusion on the exact taxonomy of elephant birds. Some naturalist used very fragmentary material to describe new species. Some reconstructed skeletons were embellished, adding some bones, especially in the neck, to size up the supposed animal. Some proposed species of elephant birds were not even based on skeletal remains, but only on the description of egg fragments. Historical photograph showing the mounted skeletons of a modern ostrich, in the middle an elephant bird of the genus Aepyornis, and to the far right another elephant bird of the genus Mullerornis.FTM Archive Zoologist James Hansford and Samuel Turvey tried to solve this puzzle by measuring hundreds of elephant bird bones from museums across the globe, using also computer models to reconstruct fragmentary bones. Based on the statistical distribution of size and anatomical characteristic of the bones, the team concludes that the family Aepyornithidae comprises three genera and at least four distinct species. Apart Aepyornis (with two species) and Mullerornis (one species), the size distribution suggests that a third genus of elephant birds, larger than the two previously mentioned genera, existed on Madagascar some 1,000 years ago. The new established genus Vorombe, meaning "big bird" in the Malagasy language, comprises also the largest bird ever discovered. Vorombe titan weighed as much as 1,760 lbs (seven-times a modern ostrich), standing 9.8 feet tall. The research describing the discovery is published as a free access paper. Read the full article

So how do the bodies who produce these figures win? First, they need to do a better job at reporting these uncertainties. In the UK, the Royal Statistical Society and the ONS are working together on how to do this right now (yes, US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the 13 other bodies that produce official statistics for the US, that is a hint). Clarity is key. I mean, this may sound like a crazy approach, but has anyone ever considering saying that unemployment is down 55,000, plus or minus 75,000? We also need, and I know this can sound like a cliche, a better education programme for statistics in schools. Since statistics are being used to drive enormous decisions, our children need to know how to question these numbers. A recent paper found that in the US, for example, while there is a new standard that requires a stronger emphasis on statistics in schools, maths teachers are not well prepared to teach the subject. As for the UK, most people in the stats community will tell you that statistics is poorly taught in schools – crammed into core mathematics, or (in my opinion) even worse, spread out in thin bits to geography and biology. Lastly, politicians needs to stay out of the bodies that produce national statistics. When politicians recently didn’t like the statistics coming out of the independent statistics agency in Puerto Rico, for instance, they dismantled it. In Greece, the chief statistician is being criminally charged for releasing what seems like the truth. The UK has not been immune to this in the past, either: Labour’s decision in the early 2000s to switch the Bank of England’s inflation target from retail price inflation to consumer price inflation is arguably the most obvious example, since it removed house prices from the equation at a time when they were rising rampantly. A great statistician, George Box, once said: “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” In short, there is error any time we model something – or in other words, make a prediction. What statisticians need to be better at explaining, and what the public need to be better at understanding, is that none of these numbers are exact. We also need to make statistics clearer so that anyone can understand them. In an era of fake news, where verifiable facts can seem a rare commodity, statisticians are too often doing us all a disservice. Liberty Vittert, Lecturer, Statistics, University of Glasgow This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article. Read the full article

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The miraculous Super Bowl run of the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles nearly ended before it ever really began. The Eagles' jaunt through the NFC playoffs began with a 15-10 win over the Atlanta Falcons at home. But things could have gone differently had a leaping interception attempt by Atlanta safety Keanu Neal not gone so disastrously.  Late in the second quarter, with the Eagles trailing 10-6, Doug Pederson's team got the ball back to begin a drive at their own 28-yard line. Rather than kneel on the ball and head into halftime trailing by four despite starting a backup quarterback, Pederson elected to let Nick Foles sling it and see if he could get some points. On the second play of the drive, Foles attempted to hit tight end Zach Ertz on a crossing route over the middle of the field. Foles was hit as he threw and completely overshot his target. The ball seriously went about 10 feet over Ertz's head, and it should have been the easiest pick of Neal's career.  Instead ...  Two plays later, Foles found Alshon Jeffery for a 15-yard gain, pushing the Eagles into field goal range with one second left on the clock. Jake Elliott knocked a 53-yard field goal through the uprights to cut the Falcons' lead to 10-9. The Eagles' defense held serve in the second half, keeping the Falcons off the scoreboard altogether, while Elliott connected on two more field goal attempts. A few weeks later, they were champions.  On Thursday night, the Falcons have a chance for revenge, while the Eagles have the opportunity to begin their title defense.  Foles is still under center for Philadelphia, which is holding Carson Wentz out for a while longer as he continues his recovery from a torn ACL suffered last December. Jeffery is out for the game as well, still dealing with the effects of a shoulder injury. Stalwarts like Vinny Curry and Beau Allen are gone, replaced by Haloti Ngata and Michael Bennett.  The Falcons, meanwhile, have added talent on both sides of the ball, hoping to rebound from last season's disappointment. The Matt Ryan — Julio Jones — Devonta Freeman — Tevin Coleman core of their offense is still in place, but they added former Alabama wideout Calvin Ridley. The defense brought in Terrell McClain to help out against the run, plus rookies Isaiah Oliver in the defensive backfield and Deadrin Senat on the line.  Can the Eagles begin their quest for a repeat with a win, or will the Falcons deal the champs an opening-week blow? We'll find out Thursday night. But before the game begins, we'll walk through some of the key things to look out for, from a statistical perspective.  When the Eagles have the ball Let's begin with Foles. It makes sense to start there, given that he is replacing an MVP candidate at quarterback, and he is coming off an MVP performance of his own. Foles went 23-for-30 for 246 yards without either a touchdown or a pick in that divisional round game against the Falcons last year. In the following two games, he completed an incredible 54 of 76 passes for 725 yards, six touchdowns and just one interception, while also catching a score on the Philly Special. Everybody remembers those two games when discussing what to expect from Foles when filling in for Wentz.  Less talked about are the two-plus regular season games he played after Wentz was initially hurt. Whiling finishing out the game against the Rams and starting against the Giants, Raiders, and Cowboys, Foles completed 54.6 percent of his passes and averaged just 4.96 yards per attempt. During his most recent season as a starter, back in 2015, he was not much better: 56.4 percent completions at 6.1 yards per attempt. With the exception of his utterly spectacular 2013 season (during which he threw 27 touchdowns and only two interceptions) and the NFC title game and Super Bowl last year, Foles has been a perfectly average quarterback. He does, of course, have one of the NFL's great offensive coaches scheming him into position for success, but it's important to remember the bigger picture when debating what to expect from Foles on a game-to-game basis.  So who should you back in Week 1 of the NFL season? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has outperformed 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com the past two seasons.  Consider also who Foles will be throwing to in Week 1. The Eagles will be without Alshon Jeffery due to injury, but they also lost Trey Burton and Torrey Smith in free agency, plus Brent Celek to retirement. Of the Eagles' 555 targets last season, Jeffery, Burton, Smith, and Celek accounted for 242 of them, or 43.6 percent. Of the 207 targeted passes Foles threw during the regular season and postseason combined, that foursome was the on the receiving end of the throw on 79 of them, or 38.2 percent. That's a whole lot of missing-in-action pass-catchers. And that's not even accounting for Mack Hollins, who played a small role last year but will have to be more of a contributor this season, and is also out for Thursday's game. Foles still has plenty of returning targets such as Ertz, Nelson Agholor, and running backs Jay Ajayi and Corey Clement, plus new arrival Mike Wallace; but things are going to be a bit different for the Philadelphia passing game than they were a year ago, to say the least.  The Falcons, meanwhile, are returning almost their entire defense from last season, plus a few new playmakers. Adrian Clayborn is gone, but he's replaced by 2017 first-rounder Takkarist McKinley, who will line up across from Vic Beasley to form one of the most athletic edge-rusher combinations in the league. Beasley ranked in the 99th percentile of athleticism among NFL edge rushers when he came into the league back in 2015, while McKinley's quick first step around the edge helped him produce 1.67 sacks plus tackles per loss per game across his final two college seasons -- a considerably above-average figure. Atlanta also returns one of the league's top secondaries, with Keanu Neal joined by fellow safeties Ricardo Allen and preseason star Damontae Kazee, plus corners Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford, slot man Brian Poole. Atlanta's entire defense, as we discussed prior to last season, is absolutely stocked with top-flight athletes.  Player SPARQ 40 SHUTTLE 3 CONE VERT BROAD Takkarist McKinley 116.4 4.59 4.62 7.48 33.00 10.17 Duke Riley 129.7 4.58 4.21 6.90 37.00 10.17 Keanu Neal 126.7 4.62 4.20 7.09 38.00 11.00 Deion Jones 129.3 4.39 4.26 7.13 35.50 10.00 De'Vondre Campbell 113.3 4.58 4.50 7.07 34.00 9.67 Brian Poole 99.7 4.50 4.43 7.13 29.00 9.33 Vic Beasley 151.5 4.53 4.15 6.91 41.00 10.83 Jalen Collins 118.8 4.48 4.27 6.77 36.00 10.33 Grady Jarrett 126.6 5.06 4.56 7.37 31.00 9.42 Ricardo Allen 112.8 4.51 4.25 7.01 37.00 10.17 Desmond Trufant 115.5 4.38 3.85 N/A 37.50 10.42 Robert Alford N/A 4.39 4.23 6.89 40 11.00 In the running game, it will be interesting to see what kind of plan the Eagles have in store for Ajayi. They acquired him at least year's trade deadline but he was lightly-used over the second half of the regular season, carrying just 70 times over seven games. His usage shot up during the playoffs as he carried 42 times for 184 yards, but only nine of those totes came during their Super Bowl victory over the Patriots. Reports have indicated that the team plans to use him as more of a feature back this season, but Pederson and company will surely want to mix in Clement (who is a better pass-catcher) and possibly Darren Sproles as well. For what it's worth, Ajayi himself tore through the Falcons for 130 yards on 26 carries last season when he was still with the Dolphins. He also now has Pro Football Focus' top run-blocking offensive line clearing the way for him.  An under-discussed aspect of Philadelphia's run last season was the performance of rookie kicker Jake Elliott. (At least it's been under-discussed outside Philadelphia.) Elliott nailed 39 of 42 field goal attempts during the regular season and all seven of his tries during the playoffs. That's an absurd 93.8 percent conversion rate -- far better than the league averaged of 83.0 percent. Take away four of his makes to get him down to league average, and you might take the Eagles from 13-3 to 11-5. Knock him down even further to his collegiate conversion rate of 77.9 percent, and their record might fall a bit more. Elliott's follow-up to his spectacular rookie exploits bears watching.  When the Falcons have the ball Just as they did on offense, the defending champions lost several contributors from their Super Bowl-winning defense. Philadelphia's defensive line last year was one of the best and deepest in the NFL, consisting of Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, Vinny Curry, Timmy Jernigan, Derek Barnett, Chris Long and Beau Allen. Curry was cut. Allen signed with the Buccaneers. Jernigan is injured. That's 40.5 percent of the snaps from last year's group. Luckily, they signed Haloti Ngata to pick up Allen's slack in the running game, and traded for Michael Bennett to play a versatile role all over the line as a pass-rusher and run-stuffing monster.  The entire group will have its hands full on Thursday night, as the Falcons sport one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. The Falcons were torn apart on the interior during their two playoff games last season as Andy Levitre sat out due to injury, but he's back at full strength and should be playing alongside Alex Mack at center, Wes Schweitzer at the opposite guard, and Jake Matthews and Ryan Schrader at the tackles. That group's zone-blocking chemistry clears the way for the dynamic duo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, one of the league's most well-balanced and versatile running back tandems.  Freeman takes the lead role and operates more often between the tackles, but Coleman can just as quickly scoot through a seam and is versatile enough to line up in the slot or out wide and school a linebacker or safety off the line of scrimmage. Freeman has essentially been completely shut down in three career games against the Eagles, however: he has 32 carries for 74 yards and 11 catches for 87 yards in those three contests. That's an average of just 3.74 yards per touch, compared to his career average of 5.18 per touch against all other opponents.  Opp Rush Yards Rec Yds Yds/Tch PHI 32 74 11 87 3.74 OTHER 820 3483 209 1779 5.17 Coleman has taken on a larger role in the team's offense with each passing season of his career (89 touches as a rookie, then 149, then 183) but his efficiency has waxed and waned. He averaged 4.6 yards per touch as a rookie, 6.3 as a sophomore, and 5.1 a year ago. The team made a bit more of a concerted effort to get him involved in the running game last season but he did not break as many big plays as he did the year before, and he also saw his catch rate drop off from the sky-high 77.5 percent he posted in 2016.  That duo will have to find its way against a defense that allowed a first down on only 17.8 percent of opponents' rushing attempts last season, the eighth-best mark in the NFL, while yielding touchdowns on just 2.08 percent of rush attempts, the fifth-best figure in the league. Complicating things for Philly will be the absence of linebacker Nigel Bradham, as well as the need to work in the replacements for some of their stalwarts on the defensive line.  In the passing game, Atlanta's Matt Ryan saw his performance fall off sharply after a career season in 2016. In particular, he struggled to find much of a rhythm with his No. 1 target, Julio Jones. Jones posted the second-lowest catch rate of his career at 59.5 percent, and scored only three touchdowns on the season. Even though he's never been much of a touchdown-producer, that rate of scoring was considerably lower than his career norms. During his five healthy seasons prior to 2017, Jones scored 38 touchdowns on 456 catches and 718 targets. That means 8.3 percent of his catches and 5.3 percent of his targets turned into scores. Last year, however, with just three end zone trips on 88 catches and 148 targets, those rates plummeted to just 3.4 percent (catches) and 2.0 percent (targets).  Philadelphia lost an important contributor from last year's secondary in Patrick Robinson, but returns starter Jalen Mills, trade acquisition Ronald Darby (who missed much of last season after dislocating his ankle in the team's first game), and 2017 second-rounder Sidney Jones, who is expected to play a much bigger role this season. We don't yet know if the Eagles will use shadow coverage or play sides, but that trio will have to deal with not just Jones, but also Mohamed Sanu and the shifty rookie, Ridley. That should be a fun matchup all night.  Read the full article

y = 0.80 + .23(x) | R^2 = .02 | N = 50 We’re down to just 50 observations, but the data here is pretty clear. With a three minute increase or decrease in ice time per game, there’s virtually no relationship between past season primary points per 60 and current season primary points per 60. Overall, we saw that the correlation between previous season primary points per hour and current season primary points per hour declined the more change a player saw in his average ice time. Changing roles did have an impact on primary point production, though the effect wasn’t necessarily positive or negative. I’ll let Brian MacDonald summarize for us (note: the linked article is behind The Athletic’s paywall). For a guy like , if he’s put in a different situation, ideally, his numbers would stay the same — (that is) his advanced metrics would stay the same if they’re accounting for teammates and opponents. But in reality they’re probably going to change. One thing most of these models ignore chemistry or synergy between players. It’s also most of what people talk about out in the open “Well, this guy is getting this amount of production in only 11 minutes of ice time per game at 5-on-5” and then they basically make the assumption that if you increase playing time that the production rate is going to stay the same. Which is almost certainly not true. There’s no way. That’s a huge assumption. This is something by Brian likely has looked into in the past, but I couldn’t find anything online confirming that it was true, so I investigated. It’s rather clear, I think, that point production rates are prone to change as a player’s ice time changes. It’s likely that there are a huge variety of factors at play here, though I suspect most of them stem from the fact that we’re missing a lot of the context that goes into ice time changes. Here’s a brief and incomplete list of scenarios that come to mind where a player could see his ice time change (and his production change as a result). A young player starts out playing fourth line minutes with unskilled teammates. The next season, he’s bumped up to a second line role alongside two excellent players. His production increases, as he now has skilled teammates to work with. A veteran player signs with a new team, downgrading from a second line role to a third line role. The quality of his teammates doesn’t change much, but he’s now playing against much weaker competition, and his production increases as a result. A skilled player with key flaws finds success on the third line, but is forced to move up to the first line after a player leaves in free agency and another falls to injury. His flaws are exposed when he’s faced with stronger competition, and his production suffers. A veteran player racks up points playing alongside his team’s top center, but an up and coming rookie takes his place on the top line. Between old age and the new teammates, the veteran struggles, and he sees a decline in scoring. Going forward, it would be interesting to dig into the context a bit more, to see if there are specific groups of players more prone to an increase or decrease in point production based on factors such as projected ice time, projected teammates, or even projected opponents. At the end of the day, though, you most likely clicked on this blog post for Panthers analysis, not analysis of the NHL at large. Here’s a look at primary points per hour for Panthers forwards last season. Florida Panthers P1/60 2017-2018 Player GP TOI Goals First Assists TOI/GP P1/60 Player GP TOI Goals First Assists TOI/GP P1/60 Evgenii Dadonov 74 1072.32 20 19 14.49 2.18 Nick Bjugstad 82 1080.13 18 16 13.17 1.89 Aleksander Barkov 79 1222.45 13 17 15.47 1.47 Frank Vatrano 41 410.17 7 3 10.00 1.46 Jonathan Huberdeau 82 1193.83 16 12 14.56 1.41 Jared McCann 68 791.22 7 10 11.64 1.29 Denis Malgin 51 624.20 10 3 12.24 1.25 Jamie McGinn 76 884.98 9 9 11.64 1.22 Connor Brickley 44 475.52 4 5 10.81 1.14 Colton Sceviour 76 807.45 10 5 10.62 1.11 Vincent Trocheck 82 1216.87 9 13 14.84 1.08 Radim Vrbata 42 471.97 3 4 11.24 0.89 Derek MacKenzie 75 660.87 2 6 8.81 0.73 Keith Yandle 82 1440.25 6 11 17.56 0.71 Maxim Mamin 26 267.20 3 0 10.28 0.67 Mike Matheson 81 1424.27 7 6 17.58 0.55 Mark Pysyk 82 1316.87 3 9 16.06 0.55 Micheal Haley 75 575.80 3 2 7.68 0.52 Aaron Ekblad 82 1450.65 9 2 17.69 0.45 Alex Petrovic 67 945.52 2 5 14.11 0.44 Ian McCoshen 38 523.58 3 0 13.78 0.34 MacKenzie Weegar 60 831.22 2 2 13.85 0.29 We can see that player role impacts point production for the Panthers right from the start, with Evgenii Dadonov and Nick Bjugstad coming ahead of Aleksander Barkov. Seeing as Barkov’s usage is very defensive-minded, it’s not surprising to see him after over 15 minutes of 5v5 time per game, but produce points at a lesser rate than his counterparts. Frank Vatrano is also interesting, as he’s averaged about 1.16 primary points per hour over the course of his career. His uptick in production last season is notable, though it’s questionable if he can sustain it. He clearly played a fourth liner’s role last season, averaging just 10 minutes at 5v5 per game, but if he can maintain his rate of production in a third line role next season, it would help the Panthers develop one of the league’s stronger third lines. Vincent Trocheck’s low rate of production at 5v5 was offset by his astounding power play production last season, so people aren’t talking about it. Still, it’s noticeable, and one can’t help but wonder if he would benefit from having less defensive responsibility. Micheal Haley is an enforcer who would have made a great fourth liner... 15-25 years ago. Unfortunately for Haley, the league is changing. If the Panthers want to hang with the juggernauts of the East, they should look into icing a fourth line that has a bit more skill. Again, this isn’t an end-all-be-all statistic, and it only tells part of the story. Still, it’s good to know that context matters, even if that context is something as basic as ice time. Read the full article

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Rising diabetes cases in Saudi Arabia result in 5,000 foot amputations annually according to statistics released by the International Diabetes Federation. This statistic was conveyed by the Saudi Society for Diabetes and Endocrinology, where the head of its Health Education Committee, Dr. Bassem Fota, said that there are about three million Saudis who suffer from high blood pressure. “However, there are indicators of improvement in the numbers due to increased awareness, and a reduced number of amputations per year by about 30 percent,” Fota added. Fota said that the Saudi Society for Diabetes and Endocrinology carried out a campaign which involved 6,000 people, 70 percent of whom were men and 30 percent were women. After a bit of testing, it turned out that 35 percent of the participants suffered from obesity, 13 percent suffered from high blood pressure and 600 people had high blood sugar levels. He added that most of them do not exercise and are likely to become diabetic. In 2015, the number of Saudis who suffer from diabetes reached 3.8 million. According to the International Diabetes Federation, the number of those who died due to diabetes is 23,420 while the cost for treating one diabetic patient is $1,145 a year. SHOW MORE Last Update: Sunday, 22 July 2018 KSA 13:07 - GMT 10:07 Read the full article

Unemployment in the US is now down to 3.8 per cent, the lowest since 2000 and equal to the lowest since the late 1960s. More remarkable still, the gap between white unemployment and black unemployment is the narrowest certainly since then, maybe longer. It is down to 2.1 percentage points (black unemployment is 5.9 per cent). Quite why is a bit of a puzzle and there is a good Fed study on this issue. It notes among other things that too many black people of working age are in prison. I know too that participation rates have fallen, that there are regional differences and that until recently middle-income wages were barely rising. But it does seem that the rising tide is lifting all ships: for most Americans it is easier to find a job now than at any time for the past 50 years.  So, despite the long expansion, now the second-longest since the Second World War, the economy is putting on pace. Estimates for second quarter growth have been pushed up to an annual rate of 4.8 per cent by one of the Fed’s 12 constituent banks, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. This may turn out to be too high, but if you look at all the other stuff – consumer sales, construction orders, car output and so on – there is no doubt that the economy is growing at around 4 per cent. That is faster than the country’s long-term sustainable rate, so the question is: how long can it go on? Quite a long time, according to Jamie Dimon, head of the bank JPMorgan Chase, in a speech on Friday. Wages are at last picking up, which should sustain consumers and while interest rates will rise, the Fed is not going to push them up faster than the economy will bear. Someday, we all know, there will be another recession. But it is not yet in sight. Canadian PM Trudeau says new tariffs announced by Trump are unacceptable In my mind a lot depends on how low unemployment can go without generating wage-push inflation. What is normal unemployment in an advanced market economy? Until recently most economists assumed it was about where it is now in the US (and indeed in the UK). But maybe it is lower, maybe the three per cent levels of the late 1960s. Maybe there have been social, cultural and market changes that will push it lower still.  Anyway, however you slice it, America is on a roll. That has political consequences. Internationally it is perhaps making the present administration more self-confident in its trade negotiations. Domestically it will strengthen the Republicans in the midterm election. The longer the boom continues, the harder it is to attack the president’s economic policies – though personally I think it is nuts to give the country a fiscal boost in the middle of a boom. The danger, of course, is that the president will overplay his hand. But right now the hand does look a strong one and one that will become stronger in the months ahead. Read the full article