#nba17

"the guy who didn’t want to play with you is gone to a team you’ll play soon and often (revenge games!), and you just added a feisty, cheap point guard who can score at will and isn’t much worse defensively. Plus you added Crowder, whom you don’t have to go up against anymore, and a future top-five pick next season in a loaded draft. And what’s more, you can still leave after this season! The pieces on LeBron’s chess board moved, but to his benefit, and he still has the controls. [..] The interest, fanfare, and knowledge have never been greater. The Lakers are on the rise, the East is interesting again, Celtics-Cavs could become a legitimate rivalry, and the West is loaded after Paul George, Jimmy Butler, and Paul Millsap all moved west. And this is all before what should be one of the most compelling free-agency periods next offseason. Basketball never stops.“

"Pace and space, 3s, slash-and-kicks, high screens, foul shots, more 3s. That’s basketball in 2017. Years of trial and error nudged us here: an advanced metrics revolution, better playmaking, superior long-range shooting, big men drifting farther away from the paint, a collective realization that spacing could trump size and a league that wanted this to happen. Would you rather have 129–119 or 66–64?" [..] "The 2017 Warriors look for 3s on breaks and thrive whenever the game becomes chaotic. You forgot to mark a shooter? You forgot to stay near Steph for that extra split second? You didn’t see that sneaky midcourt pick coming? Boom … here’s another 3. Instead of Showtime, the Warriors created Help!!!!Time. And their equally superb half-court offense features spectacular shooting, precise spacing, unusual unselfishness and the mere threat of 3s (which opens the floor for everything else). Twelve months from now, after Durant is fully acclimated, they will produce the most unstoppable offense we’ve ever seen. " [..] "basketball is simply better now. There’s more going on. And it’s opened the door for more impact players." [..] "2017’s superstars belong only to the “creates offense through playmaking and spacing” category. " [..] "Evolution always wins." [..] "the Celtics have a puncher’s chance of making the Finals with a franchise player who … A. Was picked 60th in the 2011 draft B. Was squandered by two other NBA teams C. Was stolen before 2015’s trade deadline for an expiring contract and a late first-rounder D. Earns $6.75 million per year (he’s the NBA’s 149th-highest-paid player) E. Plays at the same height as Angelina Jolie and Tom Cruise. " [..] " only nine NBA players have ever been shorter than Thomas. Like, in 71 years." [..] "Remember the gawd-awful 2004 Olympics and two years of Pistons-Pacers playoff rock fights? Remember how laborious the 2005 Finals were (save for the Horry Game)? Remember when the NBA clumsily tinkered with hand-check rules and zone defenses, seeming more desperate than Chris Christie these past few years? Remember Wade barreling to the line over and over again in the 2006 Finals as Mark Cuban turned maroon? Remember that dreadful 2007 Finals mismatch between the Spurs and LeBron’s D-League team? That 2007 season sucked so much that I actually voted for “The Fans” for MVP. Who was more valuable than us? We endured six months of absolute crap and kept coming back, right? Ten years later, NBA fans have been complaining that Round 2’s games weren’t close enough. Our collective bar rose THAT high. We know LeBron is making the Finals for the seventh straight time, and we know the Warriors will be waiting in Ali’s Manila trunks. A trilogy! What’s better than that? We’re also headed for a future in which every season it’ll become easier for teams to stumble into a franchise guy. Curry, Giannis, Thomas, Booker, Kawhi, Butler, George, Jokic … these were NOT top-five lottery picks." [..] "Remember when we complained that LeBron should post up more? How he wasn’t overpowering smaller defenders or using his quickness to embarrass bigger ones? In 2017, we complain that nobody can stop LeBron downhill when he’s surrounded by quality shooters. If you think LeBron didn’t learn on the fly from Mike D’Antoni unleashing James Harden this season, you’re crazy. This is LeBron." [..] "How do you stop the queen of the chessboard when he’s working with a bigger board?" [..] " In 2017, every elite offense hopes to create an everlasting Ezeli Dilemma. We’re spreading the floor for our best guy, and we’ll keep setting him screens until he lands the matchup he likes. GOOD LUCK. Every remaining playoff team features a playmaker who thrives in this scenario; Golden State and Cleveland have been blessed with two.““

"Leslie Alexander bought the Rockets for $85 million in 1993. That’s the same amount that the Magic gave Evan Fournier just last year. [..] the value of the Rockets today is estimated to be at least $1.65 billion. That means that the value of Alexander’s investment increased more than 19 times in 24 years. [..] In 2013, the Kings sold for a then-record $535 million. At the time, such a monstrous sale was shocking. In 2014, the Bucks pushed the bill further, selling for a new record of $550 million. Sacramento is a top-20 TV market, per Nielsen; Milwaukee is 35th. If that kind of money is doled out for a small-market team, what’s the price tag for one in a big city? [..] Steve Ballmer bought the Clippers in August 2014 for $2 billion. Yes, that was also a new record. The only sale since was in 2015, when the Hawks sold for $850 million. [..] Houston is the eighth-largest television market in the country. (Texas and California are the only states to each have two cities among the top 10 markets.) But the Rockets might have an even bigger market to consider beyond Houston: Rockets are top team in Asia. [..] The Rockets recently signed Harden AND Morey to lucrative, long-term extensions. Having a superstar, and a proven GM, increases the value of the franchise. Oh, and they just traded for Chris Paul, too. [..] Prospective buyers will be bidding on an immediate championship contender with a stable front office in a top-tier market. The NBA’s popularity, and franchise values, will likely continue to skyrocket as teams begin to put ads on jerseys and TV deals come in and grow. [..] Ballmer slightly overpaid for the Clippers at $2 billion, but that number may have set the market, and may also be surpassed quickly if there are suitable buyers thirsty to get into the NBA owners circle — one that very rarely opens up to prospective buyers. Right now, an NBA franchise can work both as a smart investment and, as it does for Ballmer, as a toy or hobby that can enhance its owner’s public image.”

The Thunder operate this way because they are aware of a truth of the NBA: free agency is generally not an efficient way to acquire players. [..] The winner, of course, will be the second investor, the one who values it the most. But here’s the problem: that investor is also the most likely to have overvalued the property. If this second investor is wrong about their guess that the building has untapped potential they’ll be stuck paying too much. This is a phenomenon known as the Winner’s Curse, where the winner of the bid will be the most likely to have priced it incorrectly. It applies to many types of bidding situations, and NBA free agency is no exception. The team paying the most for a free agent is the team who values that free agent the most1 — who likely overvalues the player the most. It’s possible that all of the other teams with money undervalue the player and so the winner gets good value. But more likely than not the winning bidder will be the one that overpays the most. That overvaluing might happen for a number of reasons. Some teams want the instant gratification: they are desperate to improve their team immediately and so they’ll pay a premium to secure a player they think will help. Some teams pay too much attention to what just happened, spending on a player who had a suddenly good season or playoff run. Some overpay to keep their own free agents, falling victim to the endowment effect and thinking more highly of something they already have. Some teams have cap space and feel committed to using it, so as players come off the board and their options for using that cap space dwindle they revise their estimates of how much those remaining players are worth. [..] Drafting and trading also present opportunities to fall victim to these types of mistakes. There’s one big factor, though, that makes free agency particularly challenging: the contract rules of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. [..] There is a spot on the floor where a shooter can get three points while shooting from a distance that would only net them two points elsewhere. While it took teams time to catch on, it’s now common knowledge that corner threes are different from those above the break, and coaches have adjusted accordingly. Offenses and defenses are now designed completely differently to account for this peculiarity of NBA court design.3 Constraints in one area had an unintended consequence in another that fundamentally changed the game. The same thing exists in the free agent market. [..] The corner threes of the CBA? Maximum and rookie contracts. There is logic behind why these contracts exist: they are a natural deal point between owners who want to control costs and level the playing field between big and small market teams, and an NBA Players Association that tends to vote in a way that helps the majority of its members. Max players are a small minority of those votes, and future rookies aren’t in the union yet. [..] LeBron, for example, is on the far right of the graph, producing somewhere around 20 wins more than a replacement player each year. By a conservative estimate that’s worth easily more than $50M per year on the open market, but LeBron made only $31M last season, the most the CBA allowed him to make. There’s a cap on his earnings. This makes the best players in the league even more valuable than they already would be. Basketball is a game that rewards exceptional individual talent more than any of the other major team sports, so teams with stars would have an advantage regardless. But on top of that the max salary rule means those players also have some of the best contracts in the league. Rookie contracts can have the same impact. In 1994, #1 overall pick Glenn Robinson signed a 10 year, $68 million contract before ever playing a second in the NBA. The owners balked at this, not wanting to have to pony up that kind of money for highly uncertain performance. So they created a rookie scale, where first round picks are paid a precise amount based on what number pick they are. But this scale vastly underpays the highest performing rookies, who frequently can have big impacts on their teams’ performance years before their rookie deal is over. [..] Rudy Gobert and Giannis Antetokounmpo, both of whom produced 10-20 wins above replacement for their teams while each making under $3M. [..] The middle of the free agency market is where teams get the least bang for the buck, while the best investments tend to be on the extremes. This doesn’t mean teams should stay out of free agency altogether — there are still ways to find value in the middle of the market. Perhaps a team can correctly identify an undervalued player, or find one that is worth much more to their particular roster than to the rest of the league. Maybe they take a risk on someone with injury problems or personality questions and the player is able to overcome them. But those are the exceptions. Trying to build a team through free agency is like trying to win a game with midrange jumpers. You can do it — but you’re much better off with corner threes.“

"You know a trade is good when even the downside has upside. [..] It is very unlikely Boston retains all three of Isaiah Thomas, Smart, and Bradley next summer. Tatum and Brown are locked in, along with two well-regarded imports in Ante Zizic and Guerschon Yabusele. The whole point of trading down for an extra top-5-level pick is to act aggressively when the opportunity is there. Other stars will become available over the next couple of years, but at some point, you have to throw in a little. Critics pretend these are easy choices. They aren't. Evidence suggests Boston is playing for 2020, not 2018. [..] Minnesota fans are up in arms about effectively flipping Rubio for Jeff Teague, and then paying Teague about $3 million more per season than Rubio. I get it. Rubio is a beloved player -- their player. He plays with a totally unique panache. His limitations are obvious, but something about what he does -- the timing of his passes, the range of possible angles for them, his accuracy and derring-do -- makes the players around him better. [..] George is worth all of this to the Thunder, even if the experiment fails. They should be really good next season -- perhaps a No. 4 seed in the West. This is a rabbit-out-the-hat job from Presti. The rest of the league is reeling and confused. The Thunder are back in business -- for now.“

"The Clippers were right to keep their group together, despite the déjà vu postseason flameouts. Building 55-win teams is hard. Any group that good is a break or two from the NBA Finals. Blow it up early, and there is no guarantee you sniff that lofty territory ever again. [..] But that crumbling against Houston crystallized some of the issues that always dogged them: A thin, top-heavy team relying on creaky veteran role players (Matt Barnes), the coach's son, and classic Doc Rivers Boston-era retreads (including an embarrassingly out-of-shape Glen Davis) ran out of gas. Yeah, filling out a roster with three max-level players is hard. Welcome to the first-world problems of competing for championships. [..] This was a fun team that played gorgeous, precise basketball. It is gone. At some point, a team stops believing it can win. Players get tired of each other, and yearn to try new things. The culture had eroded. Insiders complained about a lack of accountability -- about practices and shootarounds starting late [..] No team is thrilled about earmarking $40 million-plus for a 37-year-old. But they probably would have gone there to keep Paul. Bereft of draft picks, they are not set up well to rebuild. The alternative may be despair. [..] The "Why even try competing with the Warriors?" chilling effect is real, but it may be limited to Boston and a few bad teams keeping their powder dry. San Antonio wants a true shot against Golden State. Denver is chasing Kevin Love. Minnesota, stuck in a decade-plus playoff drought, just robbed Chicago of Jimmy Butler. [..] The league isn't giving up in the face of the Warriors juggernaut. This is a worthy, fascinating gamble for Houston that will force Morey and Mike D'Antoni to reimagine a go-go, 3s-and-rim-only attack in which James Harden served as alpha and omega. Paul likes to play slow, pound the ball, bark out orders in over-choreographed half-court sets, and jack midrange shots. Every bit of that runs counter to how Houston played last season. And that's OK. Harden and Paul can share, and be better for it. Almost every championship team in history meshed two ball-dominant stars who learned to play off of each other. A lot of those duos and trios didn't bring the combined outside shooting of Harden and Paul. Both are useful away from the ball. Paul has hit 40 percent from deep in two of his past three seasons. Harden has shot much better than his blah overall mark from deep on open catch-and-shoot 3-pointers -- the kind of looks he should see more alongside Paul. [..] Doing everything for Houston took its toll on Harden, too. The Rockets' season effectively ended with Harden settling for lazy step-back 3s in an overtime loss to the Spurs in Game 5 of the conference semifinals. Even Houston's cruel and efficient offense can use a dose of unpredictability in the playoffs. Stingy postseason defenses have held Houston below its regular-season scoring mark two years in a row, and the gap got bigger this season. The Spurs exposed the formula: Encourage Harden to drive, plant a tall guy near the rim, stick close to shooters, and concede midrange jumpers Houston will never take. It worked. Houston's scoring fell off. [..] Paul is one of the greatest midrange shooters ever. The Rockets should let him take those shots. They are good looks for Paul, and they will loosen up better looks for teammates. If opponents suddenly have to defend the midrange, other spaces will open. [..] The tax benefits of playing in Texas are real; just ask Paul. [..] There is major downside risk for Houston. If the Rockets really re-sign Paul to his five-year max after this season -- a gift in exchange for Paul opting in and costing himself a bit of cash -- the back-end of that deal will be painful. It will take time for Harden and Paul to mesh, and there is always the possibility it doesn't work as well as the Rockets hope -- that they won't be more than the sum of their parts. Paul is a domineering personality who has always wanted to play his way. He must adapt. But if you have a superstar in his prime, as Houston does with Harden, you might as well try like hell to win. There is no time to waste, not even with Golden State lording over the league. Injuries happen, and it's unclear if the Warriors will swallow unprecedented payroll bills approaching $400 million once Klay Thompson's new deal kicks in for the 2019-20 season. Last season's Houston team approached its ceiling. This version has a higher one. [..] The Clippers' and D'Antoni's offenses represented two of the league's most known, certain commodities. Close your eyes, and you could see how each played out on the court. In one move, both transform into wild-card unknowns. The NBA's crazy summer has already started.“

"The sideshow felt a bit like a metaphor for what, at least recently, has been the N.B.A.’s core cultural trait. The league keeps growing closer, sometimes to the point of dissolution, to the various realms that surround it: celebrity and art, marketing and hype, politics and current events. [..] Unlike with Durant, we always see LeBron’s effort—mental, physical, societal, etc.—and this, in part, is the source for our interest in his game and in his person. Even when surrounded by an all-star cast of his own—Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love on the floor, Rihanna on the sidelines—he always seems strangely alone. [..] LeBron’s press conference about the vandalism was no different. He didn’t say anything groundbreaking—racism still exists, was the message in miniature—but the wider basketball community of executives, coaches, players, and reporters all cheered him on, seemingly eager to have his words stand in for the league’s self-conscious multicultural liberalism. It was proof, maybe, of the N.B.A.’s growing confidence as a purveyor of more than simply sport: absent drama on the court, it found, even in a nasty occurrence, a story to tell.“

"After watching the tourney for 40 years, I still can’t figure out, definitively, how it translates to failure or success in the pros. March Madness made me believe in the NBA futures of Stephen Curry, Glen Rice, Kemba Walker, and James Worthy; it also made me believe in Bo Kimble, Miles Simon, Shabazz Napier, and Jack Givens. [..] Available in June: two possible franchise guards (Fultz and Lonzo Ball, UCLA’s wondrous playmaker, who has pieces of Young Kidd, Young Pistol Pete and even Young Magic), but also you might get the next Danny Granger (Jayson Tatum), the next poorish man’s Paul George (Josh Jackson), the next Steve Francis (Dennis Smith Jr., and I mean that in a good way), an all-caps FREAK shooter (Malik Monk), a freak athlete point guard (De’Aaron Fox), a slightly Dirk-ish stretch 5 (Lauri Markkanen), the next Euro stud who might be awesome (France’s Frank Ntilikina), and the rich man’s Brandon Ingram (Jonathan Isaac). With the TENTH pick, you might get someone as good as last year’s second pick. Now that’s a great draft."