#mortgageapplication

What To Look For From This Week’s Fed Meeting

You may be hearing a lot of talk about the Federal Reserve (the Fed) and how their actions will impact the housing market right now. Here’s why.

The Fed meets again this week to decide the next step with the Federal Funds Rate. That's how much it costs banks to borrow from each other. Now, that’s not the same thing as setting mortgage rates, but mortgage rates can be influenced through this process. And if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, you may be wondering about the downstream impact and when mortgage rates will come down.

Here’s a quick rundown of what you need to know to help you anticipate what’ll happen next. The Fed’s decisions are guided by these three key economic indicators:

The Direction of Inflation

How Many Jobs the Economy Is Adding

The Unemployment Rate

Let’s take a look at each one.

1. The Direction of Inflation

You’ve likely noticed prices for everyday goods and services seem to be higher each time you make a purchase at the store. That’s because of inflation – and the Fed wants to see that number come back down so it’s closer to their 2% target.

Right now, it’s still higher than that. But despite a little volatility, inflation has generally been moving in the right direction. It gradually came down over the past two years, and is holding fairly steady right now (see graph below):

The path of inflation – though still not at their target rate – is a big part of the reason why the Fed will likely lower the Fed Funds Rate again this week to make borrowing less expensive, while still ensuring the economy continues to grow.

2. How Many Jobs the Economy Is Adding

The Fed is also keeping an eye on how many new jobs are added to the economy each month. They want job growth to slow down a bit before they cut the Federal Funds Rate further. When fewer jobs are created, it shows the economy is still doing well, but gradually cooling off—exactly what they’re aiming for. And that’s what’s happening right now. Reuters says:

“Any doubts the Federal Reserve will go ahead with an interest-rate cut . . . fell away on Friday after a government report showed U.S. employers added fewer workers in October than in any month since December 2020.”

Employers are still hiring, but just not as many positions right now. This shows the job market is starting to slow down after running hot for a while, which is what the Fed wants to see.

3. The Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate shows the percentage of people who want jobs but can’t find them. A low unemployment rate means most people are working, which is great. However, it can push inflation higher because more people working means more spending—and that makes prices go up.

Many economists consider any unemployment rate below 5% to be as close to full employment as is realistically possible. In the most recent report, unemployment is sitting at 4.1% (see graph below):

Unemployment this low shows the labor market is still strong even as fewer jobs were added to the economy. That’s the balance the Fed is looking for.

What Does This Mean Going Forward?

Overall, the economy is headed in the direction the Fed wants to see – and that’s why experts say they will likely cut the Federal Funds Rate by a quarter of a percentage point this week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

If that expectation ends up being correct, that could pave the way for mortgage rates to come down too. But that doesn’t mean they’ll fall immediately. It will take some time. Remember, the Fed doesn’t determine mortgage rates. Forecasts show mortgage rates will ease more gradually over the course of the next year as long as these economic indicators continue to move in the right direction and the Fed can continue their Federal Funds rate cuts through 2025.

But a change in any one of the factors mentioned here could cause a shift in the market and in the Fed’s actions in the days and months ahead. So, brace for some volatility, and for mortgage rates to respond along the way. As Ralph McLaughlin, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, notes:

"The trajectory of rates over the coming months will be largely dependent on three key factors: (1) the performance of the labor market, (2) the outcome of the presidential election, and (3) any possible reemergence of inflationary pressure. While volatility has been the theme of mortgage rates over the past several months, we expect stability to reemerge towards the end of November and into early December."

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What To Expect from Mortgage Rates and Home Prices in 2025

Curious about where the housing market is headed in 2025? The good news is that experts are offering some promising forecasts, especially when it comes to two key factors that directly affect your decisions: mortgage rates and home prices.

Whether you're thinking of buying or selling, here’s a look at what the experts are saying and how it might impact your move.

Mortgage Rates Are Forecast To Come Down

One of the biggest factors likely affecting your plans is mortgage rates, and the forecast looks positive. After rising dramatically in recent years, experts project rates will ease slightly throughout the course of 2025 (see graph below):

While that decline won’t be a straight line down, the overall trend should continue over the next year. Expect a few bumps along the way, because the trajectory of rates will depend on new economic data and inflation numbers as they’re released. But don’t get too hung up on those blips and reactions from the market as they happen. Focus on the bigger picture.

Lower mortgage rates mean improving affordability. As rates come down, your monthly mortgage payment decreases, giving you more flexibility in what you can afford if you buy a home.

This shift will likely bring more buyers and sellers back into the market, though. As Charlie Dougherty, Director and Senior Economist at Wells Fargo, explains:

“Lower financing costs will likely boost demand by pulling affordability-crunched buyers off of the sidelines.”

As that happens, both inventory and competition among buyers will ramp back up. The takeaway? You can get ahead of that competition now. Lean on your agent to make sure you understand how the shifts in rates are impacting demand in your area.

Home Price Projections Show Modest Growth

While mortgage rates are expected to come down slightly, home prices are forecast to rise—but at a much more moderate pace than the market has seen in recent years.

Experts are saying home prices will grow by an average of about 2.5% nationally in 2025 (see graph below):

This is far more manageable than the rapid price increases of previous years, which saw double-digit percentage growth in some markets.

What’s behind this ongoing increase in prices? Again, it has to do with demand. As more buyers return to the market, demand will rise – but so will supply as sellers feel less rate-locked.

More buyers in markets with inventory that’s still below the norm will put upward pressure on prices. But with more homes likely to be listed, supply will help keep price growth in check. This means that while prices will rise, they’ll do so at a healthier, more sustainable pace.

Of course, these national trends may not reflect exactly what’s happening in your local market. Some areas might see faster price growth, while others could see slower gains. As Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub, says:

“Even if the average national home price forecast for 2025 is correct, it’s possible that some regional housing markets could see mild home price declines, while some markets could still see elevated appreciation. That has been, after all, the case this year.”

Even the few markets that may see flat or slightly lower prices in 2025 have had so much appreciation in recent years – it may not have a big impact. That’s why it’s important to work with a local real estate expert who can give you a clear picture of what’s happening where you’re looking to buy or sell.

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With mortgage rates expected to ease and home prices projected to rise at a more moderate pace, 2025 is shaping up to be a more promising year for both buyers and sellers.

Buying Beats Renting in 22 Major U.S. Cities

That’s right—according to a recent study from Zillow, in 22 of the 50 largest metro areas, monthly mortgage payments are now lower than rent payments (see chart below):

As mortgage rates have eased off their recent peak, home prices have moderated, and inventory has ticked up, affordability has improved significantly. When you add all of that up, it’s getting less expensive to buy a home than to rent one in many parts of the country.

This is a big deal if you’ve been renting for a while now. But if you don’t see your city on this list, don’t sweat it. Things are moving fast, and your area might be joining these top metros soon.

You see, talking with a local real estate agent about what’s happening in your market before this happens in your ideal neighborhood could really change the game for you. It’s all about being informed by a true expert, and understanding what was out of reach before might actually be getting more affordable than you think. 

Now, while this study compares monthly rent to principal and interest on a mortgage payment (not the whole monthly payment), let’s think through this. As Zillow notes, what you can’t ignore when you buy a home are things like taxes, insurance, utilities, and maintenance that should also be factored into your budget and your monthly payment.

But remember – renters pay extra fees too, like renters’ insurance, utilities, parking, and more. And while doing the math may feel like a drag, this equation could be a much more exciting one to work through today.

So, grab your calculator and your agent because the big takeaway is this: it may be time to determine if you’re in a spot to afford what you couldn’t just a few months ago.

As Orphe Divounguy, Senior Economist at Zillow, says:

“… for those who can make it work, homeownership may come with lower monthly costs and the ability to build long-term wealth in the form of home equity — something you lose out on as a renter. With mortgage rates dropping, it's a great time to see how your affordability has changed and if it makes more sense to buy than rent.”

Whether you live in one of these budget-friendly metros where the scales have already tipped in your favor, or any town in-between, it’s time to connect with a local real estate agent to get the conversation started.

With mortgage rates coming down and more homes hitting the market, you’ll want to be ready to jump back into your search – before everyone else does.

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How Mortgage Rate Changes Impact Your Homebuying Power

If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, you’ve probably got mortgage rates on your mind. That’s because you’ve likely heard that mortgage rates impact how much you can afford in your monthly mortgage payment, and you want to factor that into your planning. Here’s what you need to know.

What’s Happening with Mortgage Rates?

Mortgage rates have been trending down recently. While that’s good news for your homebuying plans, it’s important to know that rates can be unpredictable because they’re affected by many factors.

Things like the economy, job market, inflation, and decisions made by the Federal Reserve all play a part. So, even as rates go down, they can still bounce around a bit based on new economic data. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, says:

“The ongoing deceleration in inflation, coupled with the Federal Reserve’s recent indication of potential rate cuts [in 2024], suggests an environment supportive of modest declines in mortgage rates. Barring any unforeseen circumstances and resurgence in inflation, lower mortgage rates could be on the horizon, but the journey towards them might be slow and bumpy.”

How Do These Changes Affect You?

When mortgage rates change, it affects how much you pay each month for your home loan. Even a small rate change can make a big difference to your monthly bill.

Take a look at the chart below to see how different mortgage rates impact your house payment each month for various loan amounts. Imagine you can afford a monthly payment of $2,600 for your home loan. The green part in the chart shows payments in that range or lower based on varying mortgage rates (see chart below):

Understanding how mortgage rates impact your payment helps you make better decisions.

How Can You Keep Track of the Latest on Rates?

Real estate agents have the expertise to help you understand what’s happening and what it means for you. They can provide tools and visuals, like the chart above, to show how rate changes impact your buying power.

You don’t need to be a mortgage expert; you just need a professional by your side. Someone who can help you make sense of the market and guide you through your homebuying or selling journey.

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