#mo02

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Perhaps a more palatable option for Carnahan would be running in the district now represented by Rep. Todd Akin, R-Town & Country — a potential candidacy that's part of an unfolding game of musical chairs. Akin has given strong indication that he will run in the primary for the GOP Senate nomination in 2012, which would likely make his 2nd District House seat appealing to Republicans. It could also appeal to Carnahan. Former Missouri Republican chairwoman Ann Wagner already has signaled her interest by forming an exploratory committee. Ed Martin, who ran an unsuccessful but strong race against Carnahan last year, also is eyeing the contest. "Now that the map is done, a lot of people have asked me to consider a race in the 2nd," Martin said Friday. Wagner ally John Hancock contended Friday that "the meat and potatoes of that district, particularly in a Republican primary, is west St. Louis County, and that is her home district. And because she has been state party chairman, she is known everywhere in the district." Despite the district's Republican tilt, Carnahan's allies are factoring in the likelihood of a bruising GOP primary, which could leave a weakened nominee from that party.

The new boundaries of the 2nd District include parts of St. Louis and Jefferson counties that Carnahan currently represents. The district, though, does not include Carnahan's home in the Compton Heights neighborhood of St. Louis, which means if he were to run in the 2nd, he couldn't vote for himself.

Still, Russ Carnahan was outmaneuvered, outhustled and outmuscled as lawmakers drew eight districts. He’s left with nothing but awful choices for 2012: •He can run for the 2nd District in the St. Louis suburbs, which now has an even stronger Republican tilt. •He could run for re-election in the 1st District against fellow Democratic incumbent Lacy Clay in what would be tantamount to the bloodbath we saw in Kansas last year between Republicans Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt. With about half the 1st District made up of African-Americans, Clay would be heavily favored. •Carnahan can run statewide for lieutenant governor or another statewide office. A secure position it is not. Meanwhile, Robin Carnahan raised just $200 during the first three months of the year, elevating eyebrows from Tarkio to Thayer. Yes, she still has $220K in the bank, but her lack of activity has some wondering if she has the fire, or interest, to seek a third term as secretary of state. In a worst-case scenario, the Carnahans stand on the brink of extinction, at least when it comes to elective office. But in swing-state Missouri, there are always other scenarios. Washington Democrats already are urging Russ Carnahan to run for the 2nd District on a hunch that a tough GOP primary just might enable him to eke out a win.